Seiya Hosokawa's Remarkable Year

While the season still isn't over yet, Seiya Hosokowa has already broken into a group of auspicious Dragons hitters with his power hitting prowess. 

Since arriving in Nagoya from Yokohama through the active player draft, Hosokawa has been a revelation in the heart of the Dragons line-up. For all the ills of the team, Hosokawa along with Yuki Okabayashi and Takaya Ishikawa have been lights through a very dark season. Hosokawa in particular has blossomed with the Dragons from someone who forever had potential with the Baystars, to someone who has the ability to be one of the Central League's premier hitters. 

I won't go into a lot of detail in this post, but I did want to bring attention to a few records that Hosokawa has achieved. I contextualise this with the caveat that these are all major achievements for a Dragons hitter in the uniform ball era that started in 2012. This, perhaps serendipitously, is the start of the period of power-hitting ills for the Dragons. 

1. Hosokawa is the first Dragon to hit 20+ homeruns in a season since Dayan Viciedo in 2018. 

Yes, it has been 5 years since we last saw a Dragons hitter pop more than 20 homers. It's a little sad when you think about it. Even our iconic first baseman has had trouble hitting more than 15 homers a year but has achieved the 20 homer mark in 2 of his 7 seasons. This year has been pretty bad by Viciedo's standards, and Hosokawa has truly taken over the mantle. The only other hitters to reach the mark in the last 10 years have been Alex Guerrero (35HR, 2017) and Matt Clark (25HR, 2013). 

2. Hosokawa is the first Japanese Dragons' slugger to hit 20+ homers since 2010. 

This is perhaps the biggest issue the Dragons have had in the past 13 years. There has been no Japanese hitter that has shown elite power. Shuhei Takahashi was supposedly meant to be and Ryosuke Hirata similarly seemed to have the potential, but neither of them reached these heights with the former in particular perhaps never really having that level of power to draw on. Nobumasa Fukuda was the closest in recent memory as he had a glorious run down the stretch in 2018 and ended the season with 18 homers. Hosokawa has however become the first Japanese Dragon since current batting coaches, Kazuhiro Wada (37HR, 2010) and Masahiko Morino (21HR, 2010) to send 20 balls over the fence.

3. Hosokawa is only the 4th Dragons hitter in the uniform ball period to log 20+ homers

Right? In 2012 the uniform ball was introduced. Before then, each team supplied their own ball for home games. This seems to have had a disastrous impact on the Dragons. However Hosokawa has stemmed the tide of this trend. As mentioned previously, only Dayan Viciedo, Alex Guerrero and Matt Clark have popped 20 homers in a Dragons shirt in the uniform ball era. Hosokawa becomes the first Japanese-born player to do so. Hopefully more can follow in his footsteps. 

4. Hosokawa is only the second Dragons hitter in the uniform ball era to hit 10+ homers at Vantelin dome

Here's where it really gets crazy. Vantelin Dome (formerly Nagoya Dome) has been one of the most pitcher friendly parks in NPB history. But, for a while, this didn't seem to stop hitters like Tyrone Woods, Kosuke Fukudome or Kazuhiro Wada from going ham on the ball. The uniform ball era seems to have heavily affected homerun numbers in the dome, but somehow Hosokawa has managed to hit 11 homers (so far!) in the cavernous home ground of the Dragons. This puts him second on the list since 2012. The first? You guessed it, Da...Alex Guerrero. Yep. Mr "El Solo Jonrón" whacked 17 of his 35 homers in Nagoya. That actually puts him equal third on the all-time list for single-season homers at the dome. Hosokawa, is safely number two on this list since 2012. Where does he however figure on the all-time list? Let's have a quick look:

Rank	Player	Homeruns	Year
1	Tyrone Woods	21	2006
2	Kosuke Fukudome	18	2003
3	Tyrone Woods	17	2005
-	Alex Guerrero	17	2017
4	Tyrone Woods	16	2008
-	Tony Blanco	16	2009
5	Kazuhiro Wada	14	2010
-	Tony Blanco	14	2010
6	Tyrone Woods	13	2007
-	Leo Gomez	13	1999
7	Takeshi Yamasaki	12	1998
8	Kazuhiro Wada	11	2009
-	Kosuke Fukudome	11	2004
-	Seiya Hosokawa	11	2023
9	Leo Gomez	10	1998
-	Motonobu Tanishige	10	2002
-	Kosuke Fukudome	10	2002

If the season finished today, Hosokawa would be equal 8th in single-season homeruns at the Vantelin Dome. Quite an achievement for someone who is essentially a rookie. Feel free to have a look over this list, but it's Fukudome and Woods' power that I am in awe of when I look at this. The most random of names to appears here is probably Tanishige, who had a couple of good years offensively but was by no means ever considered a power hitter. 

There is still time left for Hosokawa to leave a further imprint on some important Dragons records. He has had a prodigious first season in Chunichi blue, and has been bright light in what has otherwise been a very sullen year. Looking forward to the future however, he, Ishikawa and Okabayashi in particular make for a very interesting core to build around in the middle of the line-up. If a successful international signing can be made in the off-season to support them, the top-half at least of the Dragons line-up could be very potent next year. 

Active Player Draft 2022: Shotaro Kasahara OUT, Seiya Hosokawa IN

Happy New Year. To commemorate the beginning of 2023, I'd like to recap on some old news. 

The first NPB 'Active Player Draft' took place on the 9th of December this year. Modeled on the MLB Rule 5 draft, this draft was established to ensure middling players could move to greener pastures to try to revive their stalled careers or get better opportunities elsewhere. It has been a mission of the NPB's Player Association of the past few years and this dumbed down version is the start of freer player movement between clubs. The clubs themselves still hold the power over players and can nominate three players they feel would benefit from this system. The Rule 5 draft however is more systematic in that roster allowances and organizational years are taken into account to determine who is eligible. Somewhat unsurprisingly the first step toward this kind of player movement still has clubs with reigns in hand. 

Some commentators have mentioned that this system is a glorified trade table but at least one good thing to come of this is teams have to move at least one player. In the future it is hoped that there will be more rounds to the Active Player Draft but it seems this year was conservative with clubs only opting for one round. 

Amongst all this, the Dragons moved on 2018 opening day starter, Shotaro Kasahara. The lefty has had heart problems that knocked about his development. An arrhythmia knocked him out for roughly a year after he had broken into the top team and he hasn't quite been the same since. A 4+ ERA on the farm last year is a far cry from the results he was putting with the first team in his second year as a professional. Some concern lies over the velocity difference between his change-up and fastball making some think he's just a left-handed Shunta Wakamatsu who similarly got dominated as he lacked a higher velocity fastball to mix with his change-up. Kasahara can throw a cutter as well to decent effect and, I think, has more to him than Wakamatsu but his development has somewhat stagnated. Talk around the Dragons team before he packed his bags was that he might be a bullpen option in 2023. This conversation is no longer necessary as the Dragons have turned Kasahara into outfielder Seiya Hosokawa. If we take into account this drafting and the previous trade with the Baystars, we've traded two lefty pitchers and an outfielder for an infielder. Baystars get Kyoda and Kasahara, we get Hosokawa and Sunada. 

Who is Seiya Hosokawa? Hosokawa has been a fan favourite of Baystars fan since he was drafted. A native of the Kanagawa area, Hosokawa hit 62 homers in high school before being drafted in the 4th round with the Baystars in 2016. Hopes have been high for the slugger with some expectation that he might have been able to turn it on and replace Yoshitomo Tsutsugoh when he made his move to the Majors, but it hasn't quite happened. Hosokawa has been good in spurts but overall not good enough to solidify a place the line-up for more than a few games at a time. In the end, Hosokawa is still only 24 years old, 9 months older than Kosuke Ukai who profiles perhaps similarly. Kasahara on the other hand at 27 is at a stage where he really should be a starter by now and have developed a role. On that balance alone, it might be safe to say the Dragons have traded for more potential upside. Hosokawa has hit 10+ homeruns for the Baystars every season bar one with a high of 16 in 2021. He won the homerun champion title in 2020 with 13 homers in 212 plate appearances. Hosokawa only hit 11 this year, but this is still significantly better than any Dragons hitter has done in recent years. It is worth noting however that the Eastern League is much more home-run friendly than the Western League where the Dragons' farm team plays. Either way, if Hosokawa can go some way to replicating this form in the Western League, he'll be sure to see plenty of chances with the top-team.

In terms of weaknesses, it's hard to really point at any one thing. His OPS gradually improved every year until 2022 where it went down 100 points from .968 to .834. A down year really with little explanation apart from an uptick in strikeouts. Overall, Hosokawa's consistency on the farm is relatively encouraging. That shift from the farm to the top-team seems to be the most difficult but with players like Keita Sano ahead of him in left-field, he has only been able to secure scattered appearances in right-field challenging the likes of Taishi Kusumoto and Kazuki Kamizato. Hosokawa did not do very well in his first-team appearances this year with only 20 PA and a single hit to his name. With Taiki Sekine also returning to favour under Daisuke Miura, it seems as though there's not much room to experiment with Hosokawa.

To see how this affects the roster, well, it adds a bat a removes a pitcher at the most basic level. But if we consider it in the context of the trade with Sunada and Kyoda as well, we've swapped a good defensive short-stop for a high potential, younger, power-bat while the pitcher trade is more or less just shuffling the deck with like for like lefties. 

Hosokawa adds more depth to the power-hitting stocks for the Dragons who honestly have lacked much in that department over the years. To restate, I think his best comp is likely going to be Kosuke Ukai with the two likely competing for those corner outfield jobs. Alongside Ukai and Hosokawa are the foreign bats of Aquino and Almonte while the other options in outfield like Kenta Bright and Hironori Miyoshi could yet still surprise with some hidden power of their own. I don't think adding Hosokawa moves the needle a whole lot for the Dragons, but considering Kasahara's value was rather low within the organisation and Hosokawa is young with upside, it's an agreeable move.  Hosokawa offers more upside than Kasahara currently presents but one could argue that point if we consider Kyoda as the other move in this transaction.

What this does open up potentially is the ability to drop or rest Aquino, and still maintain some potential power in the line-up. Similarly, Hosokawa could enter the competition for the left-field as well. Overall, I see this addition as one that increases competition for the outfield spots which I only see as a good thing. It also diversifies the options available to the team to be able to chop and change based on roster demands. There has also been some suggestion that Hosokawa could play first-base as well which could add more depth to an area that really doesn't have much to it.

In other more whelming news, on the 27th of December the Dragons announced they would be welcoming back catcher, Takuma Kato from the Chiba Lotte Marines after completing what is essentially a free agent signing. A trade was made with the Marines for no compensation. In some odd miscalculation, the Dragons found themselves short at catcher despite releasing long tenured Iori Katsura just after the draft. The team must have thought they would have been able to trade for someone better but in the end left the active player with only Hosokawa to show and no further trade deals made. Perhaps there was an impression another club was willing to give up a certain catcher but perhaps the right parameters weren't met or they simply changed their mind. Either way its probably the safest of back-up options as Kato is only one-year removed from working with the Dragons pitchers and will be familiar with many of them making the transition relatively simple. I don't think there's any expectation Kato will challenge for the first-team mask, but he will plug a hole in what looks more or less like a complete roster now.

While we're here, some comments made by Tatsunami to the media regarding recruiting:

• In their pursuit for a foreign slugger, the Dragons apparently had Nomar Mazara as their top pick (someone I mentioned in one of my podcasts) while Luis Brinson, most recently of the San Francisco Giants, was their second choice. Mazara was more interested in returning to the MLB, while Brinson was also receiving interest from the Yomiuri Giants. Mazara certainly would have been my first choice as well, and it is a pity the Dragons missed out on him this time.

• The second pick at the 2022 draft, Kaito Muramatsu, was apparently a last minute choice as the team were set on going after Tenri University's short-stop Atsuki Tomosugi. It was Tatsunami's last-minute close-up look at Muramatsu that tipped the scales with the Dragon's manager impressed with the hitting prowess of the Meiji University captain. Tomosugi ended up going to the Chiba Lotte Marines immediately after Muramatsu was selected by the Dragons.

DragonSoulcast: Aristides Aquino signs on

 Literally the day after I release my last podcast, the Dragons announced their signing of former Cincinatti Reds slugger, Aristides Aquino. He signs on for big money which I hope will lead to big things. I break down the signing, what he best compares to and where he will fit into the team. 

I also make mention of the new uniforms the Dragons have announced which you can view here:

DragonSoulCast: We signed some more dudes; Calixte and Almonte edition

 As of a few days ago the Dragons have been active in bringing in more players ahead of the 2023 season. Former Royals and Giants utility, Orlando Calixte joins the team while Zolilo Almonte makes a surprising return after a 3 year absence. This however doesn't look to spell the end of the Dragons roster shake-up...

Emergency DragonSoulCast: Breaking down the two trades

 Hi all, I bring to you a new podcast based on breaking down the two trades that have occurred this week. We firstly had infielder, Toshiki Abe being sent to the Rakuten Eagles for veteran starter Hideaki Wakui while just today news broke of former rookie of the year, Yota Kyoda going to the Yokohama Baystars for lefty bullpen arm Yoshiki Sunada. Give it a listen and let me know your thoughts.