DraFangraphs is a (hopefully) ongoing analytical series examining the Chunichi Dragons through advanced metrics, projections trends and roster context.
I have done far too much thinking into the void over the last month or so. It is therefore time to do a post. In a way, there's a lot I want to do but haven't. My usual salary update and my prospect list may have to wait. I do apologise as these are key resources, but my time is fairly limited at the moment.What I wanted to do today, however is start parsing what the outlook is for the Dragons in 2026. This will be my first part. Here, I'm going to look at starting pitching.
Dragons' media have been talking up the chances for the team to make a run at an A-Class season. There has been a convergence of circumstances that has led to this optimism. One, the line-up has essentially taken shape with really only one spot, shortstop, a clear position for competition. Two, the Central League competition has gotten a lot worse. The Swallows have lost Munetaka Murakami, the Giants have lost Kazuma Okamoto while the Baystars lost Anthony Kay, Andre Jackson and Masayuki Kuwahara. The Dragons' expectations have risen because of the subtractions across the league. While the Tigers remain a significant force, the Dragons were the only team in 2025 to have a winning record against the would-be pennant winners.
As mentioned, the line-up is in relatively good shape. The addition of former MLB all-star slugger Miguel Sanó only makes it more interesting. I will talk about this more in another post, but what of the rotation? This is where a lot of the intangibles and uncountables are going to need to be done. The rotation needs reinforcement, and it's not clear that it is a "good" rotation. There is a high floor at the pointy end, but there are a lot of things that might have to go the right way to ensure this is a league-leading rotation.
Without further ado, I'd like to look at some of the names in the mix. The high end of the rotation this year looks promising. With first rounders, Yumeto Kanemaru and Hiroto Takahashi leading, there will be optimism over the future however, the lack of emerging talents behind them is an issue. While Yudai Ōno will be relied on for innings and leadership, the 2020 Sawamura Award winner will be entering his age 37 season. Takahiro Matsuba, who led Dragons starters in ERA last year, is also a year older and on the wrong side of 30. It's clear that it was a career year for him in 2025 and it may not be a reliable strategy to expect him to replicate the same results in 2026. Add the veteran of veterans, Hideaki Wakui, who also started 10 games last year, and the floor of the rotation is potentially very low. This is where some are going to have to break through or bounce back. I'm going to run through the candidates who are near locks for the rotation, outline some challengers and express my concerns over the hopium that may need to be consumed to believe in this rotation
The Core
1. Hiroto Takahashi
His 2025 season began unevenly, driven in part by elevated BABIP and a splitter that lacked its usual sharpness, leading to some early volatility. As the year progressed, however, both indicators normalised, and while he may not have produced a headline-dominant campaign, his underlying performance still placed him firmly among the more effective starters in the Central League. When the splitter is working, it continues to function as a legitimate out pitch that anchors his entire arsenal.
Pitch modelling suggests his fastball has lost some of its previous dominance, trending closer to league-average in value rather than the clear plus pitch it once profiled as. Even so, it still plays effectively off his splitter and sequencing, and the overall strikeout-driven profile remains intact. Unlike several of the Dragons’ more contact-oriented starters, Takahashi retains the ability to escape innings without relying heavily on balls in play, a trait that becomes increasingly valuable as the pitching environment shifts.
That context is particularly important with the installation of the new home run terraces in 2026. A slightly more hitter-friendly Vantelin Dome environment places greater stress on contact managers and weak-contact specialists, while elevating the relative importance of bat-missing arms. In that regard, both Takahashi and Yumeto Kanemaru project as even more central to the staff’s success, as their strikeout ability provides a buffer against the increased home run variance that could accompany the park adjustment.
The main short-term variable is timing rather than talent. Selection to Samurai Japan under Hirokazu Ibata for the World Baseball Classic likely disrupts his spring preparation and could see him eased into the season, potentially missing Opening Day and more if he only pitches in short bursts for the national team. However, over the course of a full campaign, Takahashi remains the clear tone-setter of the rotation, and the overall ceiling of the 2026 Dragons staff will likely hinge on how often he is available and operating at an ace-adjacent level.
2. Yumeto Kanemaru
Unlike many pitchers in the Dragons organisation, Kanemaru does not rely on craft alone. He already possesses a deep, starter-grade arsenal built around a genuinely plus fastball that graded roughly 20% better than league average, sitting in the upper 140s with strong command. His walk rate remained low, his strikeout rate hovered around league average as a 22-year-old, and his SIERA suggests he pitched better than his results over the course of the year.
What stands out most is the maturity of his pitch mix. A heavy fastball foundation complemented by a splitter, slider and curve gives him multiple bat-missing options rather than a single out pitch, a rarity for a rookie starter in NPB. While right-handers were able to make more contact at times, his ability to limit walks and avoid catastrophic innings points to a high floor as well as a considerable ceiling.
A solid debut season on paper may, in reality, undersell just how advanced he already is. If he breaks camp well and continues to refine his sequencing, Kanemaru has a legitimate case to move beyond a back-end role and establish himself as one of the primary rotation pillars as early as 2026.
3. Kyle Muller
The underlying metrics, however, paint a more intriguing picture than the surface results. Muller was not dominant, but he was also not ineffective. His strikeout and walk rates hovered around league average, his WHIP and OPS allowed were broadly in line with NPB norms, and he did a respectable job limiting hard damage rather than getting blown up. Where he struggled was efficiency and put-away ability, often running deeper counts and relying on contact rather than overpowering hitters.
His profile is built around a cutter-led arsenal and a strong ground-ball lean rather than swing-and-miss dominance. The cutter, in particular graded as a genuinely effective pitch, generating whiffs and weak contact against right-handers, while his ground-ball rate north of 50% helped suppress extra-base damage even when balls were put in play. In other words, he pitched more like a contact-managing mid-rotation arm than a true power foreign ace.
Encouragingly, many of his indicators were more stable than volatile. His walk rate remained controlled, home run suppression was roughly league average, and his run prevention was only slightly worse than league context despite modest run support and some sequencing inefficiencies. This suggests that his uneven outings were less about collapsing stuff and more about adaptation, pitch sequencing, and familiarity with NPB lineups.
The hope for 2026 will be the classic second-year foreign pitcher bump. With a full year of NPB experience, improved pitch efficiency (fewer deep counts), and continued reliance on his cutter and ground-ball approach, Muller profiles as a relatively safe innings-eating left-hander. He is unlikely to suddenly become a high-strikeout ace, but if his command and feel remain intact, the metrics suggest there is room for incremental improvement rather than regression.
In practical terms, Muller does not need to be spectacular to justify his roster spot. If he can sit in the 120–150 inning range with league-average run prevention and steady rotation turns, he becomes a quietly valuable piece rather than a headline foreign arm, the kind of stabilising #3 starter every pitching-thin Dragons roster tends to rely on more than it would like.
4. Yūdai Ōno
This is no longer the 2020 Sawamura version of Ōno, the workhorse who racked up complete games and anchored the staff with ace-level dominance. Instead, the modern iteration is a craft-driven veteran who leans more heavily on cutter, sinker, and pitchability, compensating for a fastball that has lost some of its former edge. The strikeouts have dipped, and the raw stuff has softened, but he still limits hard contact well and can navigate lineups multiple times when his feel is right.
Now entering the twilight of a 13-year career, workload management becomes the central question rather than pure effectiveness. Expecting a full, 25-start campaign would be unrealistic; a managed role in the range of ~18–22 starts on a flexible 10-day cycle is far more in line with both his recent usage and age profile. In that capacity, Ōno projects less as a frontline ace and more as a low-variance innings stabiliser behind the higher-upside arms.
If the Dragons are forced to lean on him for a heavier workload, it will likely say more about the fragility of the rotation depth than any genuine return to peak form. Used properly, however, Ōno still profiles as one of the safer mid-rotation options on the staff, capable of providing quality innings without the volatility that accompanies several of the younger or more contact-dependent arms.
5. Yūya Yanagi
Yanagi is no longer a breaking-ball-dominant ace of 2021; he has transitioned into a cutter-command, sequencing-dependent veteran whose value remains relatively stable as long as his location and pitch feel hold. Since his peak, his swing-and-miss arsenal has gradually regressed, with his offspeed, particularly against left-handers, becoming less of a consistent putaway option. That said, he has not experienced a meaningful velocity decline, still averaging around 143 km/h. His strikeout rate collapsed in 2024 but rebounded to a league-average ~19% in 2025, which remains respectable.
The trade-off is a clear rise in contact quality and fewer bat-missing pitches overall. That introduces some risk, but with the cutter still playing and his veteran-level craft and sequencing intact, Yanagi profiles less as an ace and more as a stable mid-rotation mainstay moving forward. As long as he's healthy, he'll hold down a spot in this rotation.
6. Takahiro Matsuba
If you are familiar with Statcast terminology, elite players tend to be “all red” profiles. Kanemaru fits that mould. Matsuba, however, is almost entirely the opposite; blue across the board. That should concern anyone projecting forward. His strikeout rate remains extremely low, his fastball velocity continues to decline, and his pitch values, particularly the fastball, are deeply negative.
The profile is that of a classic crafty left-hander: strong control, heavy reliance on contact management, and sequencing over stuff. While that can work in short bursts, his 2025 success leaned heavily on suppressed home run rates and solid defensive outcomes rather than dominant underlying skill.
With Vantelin Dome’s dimensions shrinking in 2026, that margin for error becomes even thinner. A low-velocity, contact-dependent pitcher stands to lose more from a less forgiving environment than a high-strikeout arm.
He has unquestionably earned the right to open the season in the rotation based on 2025. But given the peripherals, he projects less as a stable mid-rotation piece and more as a fragile innings stabilizer whose role could become fluid if contact luck or park factors turn against him. While he's a lock to start the year; he's earned it based on his 2025, he may be out of a job faster than a chicken wing being devoured at Yama-chan on a Friday night.
The Second Battalion
7. Yuta Matsukihira
The underlying pitch data helps explain how he has managed this progression without a traditional “stuff” breakout. His fastball remains fringe from a value perspective, sitting in the 143–144 km/h range with limited whiff generation and below-average pitch value across multiple samples. However, his offspeed development, particularly the changeup, has become a legitimate carrying trait, generating strong whiff rates, suppressed contact quality, and positive pitch value across both 2024 and 2025 farm data. The cutter’s increased usage in 2025 further suggests an intentional shift toward a pitchability-oriented arsenal, rather than a power profile, allowing him to sequence effectively and avoid prolonged hard contact even when not missing bats at an elite rate.
The 2025 farm results are especially instructive in a projection context. While the dominance of his 2024 breakout regressed slightly (lower K%, reduced K-BB%), the core indicators of a stable starter profile remained intact: solid walk suppression, acceptable SIERA, and neutral-to-positive offspeed pitch value. This does not read as a collapse so much as normalization after a breakout workload season, particularly given he still handled nearly 90 innings with a groundball-leaning profile and manageable contact metrics.
There are clear limitations that cap his ceiling. Without a plus fastball or a true swing-and-miss breaking ball, his margin for error is thinner than higher-stuff arms, and any erosion in command could quickly push him into replacement-level territory. He is unlikely to develop into a front-of-rotation presence, and even a mid-rotation projection would require another unexpected jump in either velocity or strikeout ability.
That said, in the context of the 2026 Dragons rotation specifically, his profile is unusually valuable. Unlike raw younger arms or post-injury options, Matsukihira has already demonstrated workload durability, functional command, and the ability to navigate professional hitters without being overpowered. His combination of innings capacity, pitch mix maturity, and incremental year-over-year improvement makes him one of the more realistic internal options to absorb starts when the veteran core inevitably requires rest or depth support.
For 2026, the most realistic projection is that of a legitimate backend starter with some modest upside. If his changeup-driven approach continues to play and his command holds, he could reasonably provide league-average innings in a fifth or sixth starter role. The floor is lower than traditional high-stuff prospects due to his reliance on sequencing and command, but the recent data trend suggests he is no longer merely a farm depth arm and has crossed into the tier of pitchers who can quietly stabilise the back end of a rotation rather than simply fill emergency innings.
8. Masaki Nakanishi
Stylistically, Nakanishi is not an overpowering rookie in the mould of a high-velocity power arm. His fastball, which touches the low 150s but more commonly sits in the mid-to-high 140s, relies more on subtle movement and command than pure velocity. Reports frequently describe a slightly moving “deceptive” heater that induces weaker contact rather than empty swings. His primary weapon is the forkball, a legitimate swing-and-miss pitch at the amateur level that he uses confidently in putaway counts, supported by a full secondary mix of slider, curve, and changeup. From a repertoire standpoint, he already looks like a complete starter.
However, amateur dominance, even in a strong league like Tōto, does not always translate cleanly to NPB lineups. Much of Nakanishi’s success has come from pitchability, sequencing, and game management rather than overwhelming stuff, and that archetype can face an adjustment period when professional hitters are less prone to chasing out of the zone. While his command and workload history are encouraging, it remains to be seen whether his fastball quality and forkball effectiveness will generate the same level of swing-and-miss against top-team opposition.
For 2026 specifically, the realistic expectation is less “instant rotation saviour” and more “rookie capable of making spot starts without imploding.” His durability, composure, and history of working deep into games suggest he could handle 5–6 inning assignments if pressed into service, which already places him ahead of many developmental arms in terms of immediate usability. That said, counting on a first-year starter to stabilise the rotation would be optimistic, and the club will likely be cautious with workload and usage early on.
In terms of ceiling, Nakanishi profiles more as a potential mid-rotation, game-making starter than a frontline ace. The comparison to an Aren Kuri-type innings manager is instructive: a pitcher who may not dominate, but who can consistently keep his team in games if his command and forkball translate at the professional level. In the short term, he should be viewed as a high-floor rookie option with a relatively low risk of total collapse, but also without the overpowering arsenal that would guarantee immediate success. For a 2026 rotation built on uncertain depth, that makes him useful, but not yet someone who can be uncritically “counted on” over a full season.
9. Mizuki Miura
Miura is the sort of arm teams talk themselves into when they need rotation depth: experienced, composed, and capable of navigating lineups without premium velocity. After a strong 2024 farm season (95.2 IP, 3.60 tRA, .278 wOBAcon), the Dragons offered him a clearer path to the roster than the SoftBank Hawks were willing to, and the reasoning was understandable. He showed an ability to suppress contact, limit home runs, and lean on a deep mix rather than raw stuff, with his breaking pitches grading particularly well at the farm level.
His profile is built almost entirely on pitchability. Sitting in the low-140s with the fastball, Miura relies on sequencing, location, and a varied mix of slider, changeup, and secondary offerings to keep hitters off balance. Against farm competition, this approach was effective. He worked efficiently, kept the ball on the ground at a reasonable clip, and avoided the kind of loud contact that typically punishes lower-velocity left-handers.
The transition to top team hitters in 2025 exposed the tight margin for error in that profile. Over a small 33-inning sample, the command wavered, the fastball graded poorly, and the contact quality spiked dramatically (.400 wOBAcon). Without meaningful swing-and-miss ability (roughly a 13% strikeout rate), Miura has little cushion when his location is even slightly off. A pitch-to-contact lefty needs precision to survive at the NPB level, and when that precision slipped, the results deteriorated quickly.
Even his 2025 farm numbers, while serviceable, hinted at regression. The strikeout rate dipped, the fastball value fell off sharply, and the slider began to shoulder more of the burden as his primary weapon. That kind of dependency can work in short bursts, but over multiple turns through a lineup, it becomes easier for hitters to adjust.
There is still a practical role for him on the roster. Miura can absorb innings, handle spot starts, and match up reasonably well against left-handed hitters, where his contact management and sequencing play better. However, the ceiling is fairly clear. In a rotation environment that is increasingly valuing strikeout-driven arms, especially with the homerun terraces being installed in 2026, his contact-oriented approach becomes a riskier fit over sustained workloads.
Ultimately, he looks less like a true rotation fixture and more like functional depth: a pitcher who can step in when needed, stabilise the back end, and keep games manageable, but who is unlikely to hold a rotation spot over a full season unless the command sharpens or the breaking ball takes another step forward.
Break Glass Guys
10. Hideaki Wakui
In a best-case scenario, Wakui provides steady spot starts and innings coverage when injuries or developmental volatility from the younger arms force the team’s hand. In a neutral scenario, he mentors younger pitchers on the farm and occasionally starts, functioning as a stabilizing presence rather than a performance driver. Given the organization’s clear incentive to prioritize the development of younger pitchers like Kusaka, Nakachi, and other fringe rotation candidates, his path to meaningful innings is narrow; if even one or two of the younger options take a step forward, his usage could realistically be limited to fewer than five starts across the season.
Put bluntly, Wakui is no longer being counted on to hold a rotation spot the way someone like Takahiro Matsuba is. He is closer to a contingency arm whose value lies in experience, professionalism, and the ability to absorb innings without completely imploding, but whose declining bat-missing ability and aging stuff profile make him a low-ceiling, low-priority option in a 2026 roster construction that will likely favor upside over legacy.
11. Sho Kusaka
Kusaka remains something of a developmental wildcard rather than an immediate rotation solution. The 2023 draftee lost critical development time due to Tommy John surgery and only began to log meaningful innings in 2025, where the results were uneven. While his underlying SIERA hovered around league average in the farm league, he was particularly vulnerable to right-handed hitters and allowed a high rate of hard contact, suggesting his stuff has yet to fully return post-surgery.
That said, there are still intriguing indicators beneath the surface. His walk rate remained solid, his fastball command graded well, and his sinker-slider combination showed flashes of generating ground balls and weak contact, especially against left-handed batters. Given the typical post-TJ recovery curve, it would not be surprising if his true velocity and breaking pitch sharpness take another step forward in 2026.
For now, however, Kusaka appears more likely to serve as depth rather than a serious early rotation contender, and the organisation would be wise to allow him further time in the farm rather than rushing him into a homer-friendlier Vantelin environment while his arsenal is still stabilising.
12. Reia Nakachi
While Nakachi’s slider continues to flash in underlying metrics, his overall profile has plateaued somewhat at the farm level, with declining strikeout rates and a persistently below-average fastball limiting his ceiling as a starter. In contrast, Kusaka, despite a difficult return from Tommy John surgery and a rough spring showing, still possesses a more complete starter’s arsenal and organizational goodwill as a recent high-upside arm. If both are competing for the same depth role, the club may be more inclined to give Kusaka the longer developmental runway, placing Nakachi slightly behind him in the current pecking order.
The Key Takeaways
When a team plays in a smaller park, you traditionally want pitchers who can miss bats. Weak contact can still turn into extra bases in the wrong environment, and a pop fly that died in Vantelin Dome last year might land in the seats in 2026. The Dragons’ rotation, however, isn’t built around strikeouts. Takahashi and Kanemaru are the only two bat-missers you can really count on. The rest are veterans who lean heavily on cutters and contact management, trying to induce weak ground balls rather than simply removing the ball-in-play problem entirely.
That can work, especially if your infield defence holds up with Mikiya Tanaka behind them and one of Kaito Muramatsu or Ryuku Tsuchida stabilising short, but it does mean you’re accepting a certain amount of contact. In a slightly more homer-friendly 2026, the control and sequencing of the veterans (Yanagi and Ōno in particular) has to be first class. The good news is that their underlying profiles still suggest they can do that, at least in managed workloads.
The key swing variable for me is Kyle Muller. If he’s healthy and gives you a modest second-year bump, not an ace leap, just a little better than average, the rotation suddenly looks legitimately strong: Takahashi and Kanemaru at the top, Muller as a stabilising #3, and then the veterans providing depth without needing to carry the staff. That’s the version of the rotation that can push the Dragons into the best-in-league conversation.
The other man to watch, for less positive reasons, is Takahiro Matsuba. His 2025 results earned him a long leash, but the underlying indicators are loud enough to make you nervous. If he can’t replicate last year, you’ll know why.
The depth problem
The challengers behind the core are… mildly underwhelming. Matsukihira has upside, but he’s another pitchability-first arm with a fringe fastball. The changeup looks real, the cutter plays, but you’re not buying him as a strikeout solution; you’re buying him as a functional #5 who survives by sequencing and command. Miura is cut from a similar cloth: crafty lefty, limited bat-missing ability, tight margin for error. Nakanishi is the one depth name who plausibly brings something different, but even there the upside reads more like “solid #3” than “frontline saviour,” at least early on. Slide further down the chart, and it becomes easy to worry about just how thin the true rotation depth actually is.
Early-season risk
With Takahashi likely disrupted by WBC preparation and ramp-up, the bullpen could come under pressure in the first month if the rotation can’t give length. Muller may also miss the first week or two, having only started throwing in the bullpen yesterday (23rd February). That raises the obvious question: what does the Opening Day rotation actually look like?
If you’re trying to maintain the three-lefty / three-righty balance the Dragons seem to love, an early alignment might look something like Kanemaru, Matsuba, Ōno, Yanagi, Matsukihira, and Nakanishi. But if you’re digging into the second battalion in Week 1, it’s usually because something is already going wrong. And if Matsukihira, Nakanishi, or one of the veterans shows volatility, you’re quickly down to Miura and Wakui, arms who might keep the ship steady just about, but aren’t going to win you many games by themselves.
If everyone is healthy and performing at the level you’d hope, a rotation of Takahashi, Kanemaru, Muller, Ōno, Yanagi, plus some mix of Matsukihira / Matsuba / Nakanishi is perfectly respectable. There’s also room for smarter workload management, especially with Ōno, if the team is proactive rather than reactive.
The names I didn’t cover
There are several starter prospects I haven’t mentioned. Yoshinori Sakurai (last year’s #2 pick) could theoretically be stretched out, but Kazuki Inoue’s comments suggest the bullpen may be his more immediate destination. Beneath him sits the next developmental layer still accumulating innings on the farm: Kōsuke Takahashi, Kenya Inoue, Keito Arima, and Konosuke Fukuda. At present, none project as early-season depth capable of stabilising the rotation if multiple injuries or underperformance occur.
Seiya Yoshida, the 2024 #2 pick, also falls into this category. While still a long-term developmental arm, he has yet to demonstrate the kind of sustained impact at the 1-gun level required to be considered reliable rotation depth in 2026. Even in comparison to Miura, himself more of a pitchability depth option than a true fixture, Yoshida has not yet shown he can consistently reach that baseline against top-team opposition.
One potential dark horse is Kodai Umetsu, currently rehabbing on a development deal. He has looked and performed like a starter in the past, but even if he resurges, that’s not the kind of certainty the Dragons need right now.
Final thought
Unfortunately, like most years I’ve been a Dragons fan, we’re relying on what could be rather than what is. The variance on this rotation is enormous. If it plays like a #2 staff, the Dragons cruise into A-Class and can absolutely sniff 2nd place. If it plays like a #4 staff, you’re staring at another B-Class season.
Fingers crossed. But for the Positive Dragons crowd, this isn’t exactly comforting reading.
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