Hello again, all. I've done it. I've posted another piece before Opening Day. The crowd goes mild.
The reception to the last article was really encouraging, so thank you to everyone who read it. It’s been about three weeks and it has reached 200 views, which I consider pretty decent for niche baseball commentary. It ended up getting very long, but I hope it showed just how volatile the rotation could be and what the actual depth looks like.
For today's DraFangraphs analysis, I'll be diving into the bullpen. I probably won't go into quite as much depth this time simply because there are more pieces to cover. I think you'll find that the answers are relatively straightforward. I will look at the key personnel, but I also want to pay attention to the types of pitchers they are, how they profile in a smaller park, and maybe some fringe candidates who have more upside (or less) than the Dragons' usage suggests.
First, some news.
The Sakurai Factor
Since my last article, I’ve heard that Yoshinori Sakurai is more likely destined for the rotation, where I’d place him in the second tier for now: higher upside than an ageing Hideaki Wakui, but with a floor we’re still figuring out.
He's looked decent in preseason, so there is some optimism he could become a serviceable NPB starter.
WBC Rotation Troubles?
More rotation news: Yumeto Kanemaru has been called up to Samurai Japan to replace Padres reliever Yuki Matsui. The Dragons' rotation is now without two of its highest-upside arms.
If Japan makes a deep run, the Dragons could be without two of their highest-upside arms until at least March 17. Given that WBC starters rarely throw more than 50 pitches or work beyond three innings, it would be optimistic to expect either pitcher to jump straight into a normal NPB starter’s workload by Opening Day on March 28. More likely, both would need at least a couple of farm outings to build back up, which could push their return to the rotation into mid or late April.
Yanagi to start the 2026 season
Finally, Yuya Yanagi has been announced as the Opening Day starter, but his last few preseason outings have not been particularly encouraging. He gave up four runs against Samurai Japan and four runs against the DeNA BayStars.
So with those dates in mind, I have about three weeks to write two more articles after this one. The next article will focus more on the hitters, platooning, and defensive alignment, while the final piece will be an overall assessment of the team and where I think they'll end up. Based on my research so far, however, I may not have a particularly satisfying answer.
The 2026 Chunichi Dragons Bullpen Outlook
Without further ado, let's get into the bullpen.
Injuries and International Duty
The first thing I want to raise is international duty and current injury concerns. New addition Albert Abreu is away with the Dominican Republic, while Humberto Mejia is currently with Team Panama for the opening rounds of the WBC.
The big difference between these two and pitchers like Kanemaru or Takahashi is that Abreu and Mejia are relievers and will require minimal ramp-up time once they return to Japan. Again, how deep each team goes will determine their schedules, but I would say Mejia is relatively likely to come home early (sorry, Panama fans). Even if the Dominican Republic makes the final, it wouldn't be unusual to see Abreu on the Opening Day roster on March 28.
In terms of injuries, three key relievers are currently resting. At the end of last year, Tatsuya Shimizu, who has served as the team's eighth-inning man for much of the last three seasons, developed hip problems that shut him down. Shimizu has not been present at spring training at all and is expected to miss at least half the season while rehabbing. It's probably safe to say he isn't someone the Dragons can count on in 2026.
The other two pitchers are key high-leverage arms but should return by Opening Day. Shinya Matsuyama strained his left oblique in camp but began throwing again about a week ago, and he has said himself that he expects to be ready for Opening Day.
Koki Saito is the other. Saito has been the Dragons' most effective left-handed reliever in recent years. He entered camp dealing with some discomfort in his left shoulder and has been gradually ramping up his workload. It is also likely that he will be ready for Opening Day.
Structural, Cultural and Roster Notes
Now let's get to the bullpen. I'm going to start with the high-leverage group and work my way down to the middle relievers and then the fringe arms. The Dragons have quite a few high-leverage pitchers in their bullpen, but I think there are still some tiers within that group that are worth separating.
Just one note before we get into it: bullpen usage in NPB is quite different from MLB for a few reasons.
First is roster construction. MLB teams operate with a 40-man roster, and there are restrictions on which players can be optioned to AAA. In NPB, however, teams have a 70-man roster, and there are essentially no limits on how often a player can move between the farm team and the top squad.
In practice, that means teams can burn through relievers and call up replacements from the farm far more freely than MLB clubs, even with the 10-day re-registration cooldown. Because of that flexibility, NPB teams often treat the farm system as an extension of the bullpen rather than carrying permanent low-leverage or mop-up roles.
Broadly speaking, this bullpen can be divided into three groups: the established late-inning core, a second tier of volatile but useful leverage arms, and a final tier made up of developmental, matchup, or emergency depth options.
Bullpen Ace
1. Shinya Matsuyama
There is very little debate about who anchors the Dragons bullpen. Matsuyama has established himself as one of the most dominant relievers in the Central League, combining elite velocity with one of the best swing-and-miss arsenals in the organization.
In 2025 he posted a 1.54 ERA across 53 appearances, recording 46 saves while maintaining a 0.97 WHIP. The underlying numbers are even more impressive. Matsuyama struck out hitters at a 12.3 K/9 rate while limiting walks to 1.9 BB/9, producing an elite 6.55 K/BB ratio and a 1.21 FIP.
What truly separates Matsuyama from the rest of the bullpen is how dominant he becomes once he gains the advantage in the count. Opponents hit just .067 in 0-2 counts, .139 in 1-2 counts, and .057 in 2-2 counts, while the majority of his strikeouts came in advantage counts. The pattern reflects the structure of his arsenal: a high-velocity fastball that sets up a wipeout breaking pitch that hitters simply cannot handle when they are forced to protect the zone.
Even the contact he allows tends to be manageable. Opponents hit just .213 overall with a .277 slugging percentage, and his 0.34 HR/9 rate shows how rarely hitters square him up.
For the Dragons, Matsuyama is the clear bullpen ace and one of the few relievers on the roster capable of completely overpowering opposing lineups. With the bullpen otherwise leaning toward contact management, he provides the crucial swing-and-miss presence at the back end of games
Established Set-Up Calibre
2. Tatsuya Shimizu
For the past several seasons, Tatsuya Shimizu has been the stabilizing force in the Dragons bullpen. While he does not overwhelm hitters in the same way as Matsuyama, Shimizu has carved out a high-leverage role by consistently suppressing hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground.
In 2025 he appeared in 55 games, posting a 2.24 ERA while recording 30 holds. The underlying metrics paint a clearer picture of his profile. Shimizu generated a 21.8% strikeout rate against a 9.8% walk rate, while producing an excellent 60%+ groundball rate. That combination allows him to avoid the kind of damage that often plagues contact-oriented relievers.
Perhaps the most remarkable aspect of his season was his ability to prevent home runs. Across the entire year Shimizu did not allow a single home run, finishing with a 0.00 HR/9 and a 1.95 FIP, numbers that reinforce just how effectively he suppressed damaging contact.
The count data further illustrates how he operates. While hitters were reasonably competitive early in counts, once Shimizu gained the advantage he was extremely difficult to drive. Opponents hit just .154 in 0–2 counts, and overall struggled to produce extra-base damage even when putting the ball in play.
Rather than overpowering hitters, Shimizu succeeds by forcing weak contact and inducing ground balls, making him particularly effective in high-leverage situations where double plays can quickly end innings.
Unfortunately for the Dragons, Shimizu is expected to miss a significant portion of the 2026 season while recovering from a hip injury. His absence removes one of the bullpen’s most reliable leverage arms and increases the importance of pitchers such as Akiyoshi Katsuno and Albert Abreu to help bridge the late innings.
3. Koki Saito
Saito has quietly developed into one of the most effective left-handed options in the Dragons' bullpen, relying more on deception and pitch quality than overpowering velocity.
In 2025 he appeared in 42 games, posting a 1.64 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP while holding opponents to just a .198 batting average and .270 slugging percentage. Although his strikeout rate sits at a modest ~22%, the overall profile is built around contact suppression rather than pure swing-and-miss dominance. Saito allowed just 0.27 home runs per nine innings, making it extremely difficult for hitters to generate meaningful damage when they do make contact.
The foundation of his success is a slider that functions as his primary finishing pitch. While his fastball is largely used to establish counts, the slider becomes increasingly difficult for hitters to handle once Saito gains the advantage.
The count data illustrates this clearly. Opponents hit just .143 in 0-2 counts and an almost unbelievable .040 in 2-2 counts, with many of his strikeouts coming once hitters are forced into defensive swings.
Saito has also proven capable of escaping dangerous situations. With runners in scoring position, opponents hit just .125, demonstrating his ability to limit damage even when innings begin to unravel.
Assuming his early spring shoulder issues fully resolve, Saito projects to remain one of the most dependable late-inning options for the Dragons and an important left-handed complement to Matsuyama at the back of the bullpen.
High Leverage Arms
4. Akiyoshi Katsuno
Katsuno might be the most difficult reliever in the Dragons bullpen to evaluate. His underlying profile changed dramatically between 2024 and 2025, transforming him from a contact-oriented groundball arm into one of the hardest throwers on the staff.
In 2024, Katsuno relied heavily on a fastball–splitter combination to generate weak contact. He produced a 54.4% groundball rate and posted a strong 2.14 tRA, allowing him to work effectively in middle and late-inning roles despite striking out only about 19% of hitters.
Last season, however, his arsenal took a noticeable step forward. Katsuno’s fastball velocity climbed to 153–154 km/h, and his strikeout rate jumped to 29.1%, easily the highest mark of his career. His 19.7% K-BB rate suggests the raw stuff is now capable of overpowering hitters in a way it previously could not.
The downside is that the new version of Katsuno has been far more volatile. While the strikeouts increased dramatically, the quality of contact against him worsened significantly, with opponents posting a .468 wOBA on contact in 2025, equalling a .426 slugging percentage against. That combination of swing-and-miss ability and occasional hard contact makes him one of the most unpredictable arms in the Dragons' bullpen.
The count data reflects this boom-or-bust profile. When Katsuno falls behind hitters, he can be extremely vulnerable; opponents hit .667 in 1-0 counts and even 1.000 in limited 3-0 situations. But once he gains the advantage, the dynamic flips dramatically. Hitters managed just .074 in 2-2 counts and failed to record a hit in 3-2 situations.
Early statcast data in Open-sen games have classified his new slider as a sweeper, indicating a pitch that may not only get some whiffs, but also induce more weak contact.
If he can stabilise his command and limit damaging contact, Katsuno has the tools to become a genuine late-inning strikeout option. Given Shimizu’s injury absence, the Dragons may need him to fill exactly that role early in the 2026 season.
5. Albert Abreu
The Dragons’ most notable bullpen addition this offseason is former MLB reliever Albert Abreu, who brings one of the hardest fastballs in the organisation. Abreu averaged around 156 km/h on his four-seam fastball during his last NPB season in 2024 with the Seibu Lions, placing him among the hardest throwers in Japan.
While the raw velocity is impressive, Abreu’s performance profile has typically been built more on contact suppression than overwhelming strikeout totals. During his time with Seibu, he posted a 2.69 tRA across 49 innings, while limiting hitters to a .308 wOBA on contact thanks largely to a fastball–sinker combination that produces weak contact and groundballs.
His 2025 season in the Cincinnati Reds organisation was less stable. Pitching primarily for Triple-A Louisville, Abreu struggled with command, walking 16 batters in 23.1 innings and finishing with a 5.79 ERA. However, his performance improved significantly during winter ball with Tigres del Licey in the Dominican Winter League, where he logged 42 innings with a much-improved 2.1 BB/9, suggesting his control issues may have been mechanical rather than stuff-related.
For the Dragons, Abreu represents a classic buy-low power arm. If he can maintain the improved command he showed during winter ball, his upper-90s velocity and ability to limit hard contact could allow him to slot into the late-inning mix, particularly while Tatsuya Shimizu remains sidelined early in the season.
6. Yuki Hashimoto
Hashimoto has quietly developed into one of the more useful secondary arms in the Dragons bullpen, though his value is somewhat more specialised than his overall numbers might suggest.
Across the past two seasons, he has combined solid strikeout ability with a strong groundball profile. In 2025, he posted a 24.0% strikeout rate against a 7.2% walk rate, while generating a 55.8% groundball rate. Those underlying indicators helped produce a 2.56 SIERA, reinforcing the idea that his effectiveness goes beyond simple ERA results.
The key to Hashimoto’s success is a slider that functions as his primary weapon. The pitch generated a 40.9% whiff rate in 2025 and remains comfortably his most effective offering by pitch value. When hitters are forced to protect the zone, the slider becomes extremely difficult to handle.
The count data illustrates this pattern clearly. Hitters were able to do damage when attacking early in counts, batting .333 in 0-0 situations and .538 when ahead 1-0. Once Hashimoto gains the advantage, however, the dynamic shifts dramatically. Opponents hit just .111 in 0-2 counts and .154 in 2-2 counts, with the majority of his strikeouts coming after reaching two strikes.
That profile makes him particularly useful in matchup situations. Against left-handed hitters in 2025, he posted a 32.5% strikeout rate with just a 3.9% walk rate, while right-handed hitters were able to generate significantly more damage when they forced him into early-count fastballs.
Hashimoto has also proven capable of handling leverage situations. With runners in scoring position, opponents hit just .167, suggesting he is comfortable attacking hitters even when innings begin to unravel.
While he may not possess the overpowering stuff of the bullpen’s late-inning arms, Hashimoto profiles as a valuable matchup left-hander who can neutralise difficult left-handed pockets in the middle innings.
Taken together, this group forms the functional backbone of the Dragons' bullpen. Matsuyama anchors the ninth inning, while Saito, Katsuno, Abreu, and Hashimoto provide multiple paths to navigate the seventh and eighth, depending on matchups and availability.
Medium Leverage/Emergent
7. Kento Fujishima
Fujishima occupies an unusual niche in the Dragons bullpen. While his overall results have been solid, his underlying profile suggests a pitcher whose value is tied less to strikeout dominance and more to contact management and platoon matchups.
In 2025 he logged 52.2 innings with a 3.30 tRA and 3.79 SIERA, though his strikeout ability remains modest for a late-inning reliever. Fujishima struck out just 15.4% of hitters, producing an 8.1% K-BB rate, both below league average. Instead, his success comes from limiting damaging contact. Opponents posted a .315 wOBA on contact with a 4.8% HR/FB rate, allowing him to avoid the extra-base damage that often plagues lower strikeout pitchers.
His arsenal centers on a 142–143 km/h four-seam fastball paired with a splitter that he throws roughly 27% of the time. The splitter is the defining pitch in his profile, generating a 61.9% groundball rate overall and an even higher 71.1% groundball rate against left-handed hitters.
The platoon splits reflect that pitch design. Over the past several seasons Fujishima has actually been more effective against left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters, an unusual profile for a right-handed reliever. In 2025, left-handed hitters produced just a .283 wOBA on contact with a 56.6% groundball rate, while right-handed hitters generated a .343 wOBA on contact with far more elevated contact.
Hitters often attack him early in counts due to the modest velocity of his fastball. Once Fujishima gains the advantage, however, his splitter becomes a far more effective finishing pitch. Opponents hit just .091 in both 0-2 and 3-2 counts, with many of his strikeouts coming once he is able to expand the zone below the strike zone.
Rather than functioning as a traditional late-inning reliever, Fujishima profiles best as a situational arm capable of neutralizing left-handed pockets of a lineup while inducing weak contact. Within the Dragons bullpen structure, that skillset makes him a useful bridge option in the middle innings.
8. Ren Kondo
Kondo represents one of the more intriguing developmental arms in the Dragons bullpen. Although he has only limited top-team experience, the underlying metrics suggest a pitcher with the raw stuff to develop into a legitimate late-inning weapon if his command stabilizes.
In his brief NPB sample in 2025, Kondo posted a 23.9% strikeout rate, comfortably above league average, but that was offset by a very high 18.3% walk rate, leaving him with a modest 5.6% K-BB rate overall.
What makes Kondo intriguing is the quality of contact he allows when hitters do put the ball in play. Opponents produced just a .232 wOBA on contact, one of the lowest marks on the staff, supported by an extremely high 69.2% groundball rate. That combination of whiffs and groundballs is a promising foundation for a power reliever.
His arsenal centres on a 145–146 km/h four-seam fastball paired with a hard slider that functions as his primary out pitch. The slider was his most effective offering in 2025, producing a 1.4 pitch value while generating strong swing-and-miss rates and a 62–64% groundball rate. When located properly, the pitch can be extremely difficult for hitters to elevate.
The minor league data reinforces the upside. In 2025 at the farm level, Kondo recorded a 26.0% strikeout rate, 18.8% K-BB rate, and 63.9% groundball rate, while allowing just a .190 wOBA on contact. His fastball and slider both produced strong positive pitch values in that environment, suggesting the raw stuff is capable of missing bats at a high level.
The primary obstacle to a larger role is command. Kondo’s elevated walk rates have limited his ability to handle high-leverage innings consistently, forcing him into shorter appearances where the staff can manage the risk.
If he can reduce the walks even slightly, Kondo has the raw tools to develop into a high-leverage arm capable of generating both strikeouts and weak contact. Until then, he profiles as an emergent bullpen piece whose upside may exceed his current role.
9. Kenshin Makino
Makino is one of the more interesting developmental arms in the Dragons system. After spending the 2025 season with Oisix Niigata in the Western League, the left-hander showed signs of progress, posting a 19.7% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate, and 11.8% K-BB rate over 102.1 innings. His arsenal is built around a solid changeup, which generated strong swing-and-miss numbers and finished the season with a +5.0 pitch value, suggesting it could become a legitimate out pitch against right-handed hitters.
Sitting around 142 km/h in the minors, the pitch has generally functioned as a setup offering rather than a bat-misser, and the development of his slider will likely determine whether he can eventually handle higher-leverage work.
Early returns this spring have been intriguing. While I only have data for three open-sen appearances, Makino has averaged 144.2 km/h and touched 146.1 km/h, producing 15.0 K/9 while also issuing 9.0 BB/9. The added velocity hints at potential in a relief role, although an 11.1% whiff rate and 42.9% hard-hit rate suggest there is still refinement needed.
If the command stabilises and the breaking ball takes a step forward, Makino could develop into a useful bullpen arm.
10. Humberto Mejia
Mejia transitioned into a relief role in 2025 after spending most of his career as a starter, giving the Dragons a large-bodied power arm capable of covering multiple innings. Working primarily with a 149–150 km/h fastball, he recorded a 15.6% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate across 45.2 innings in his first season out of the bullpen.
Interestingly, Mejia’s most effective pitches were not his fastball. His cutter and knuckle curve both produced strong swing-and-miss numbers, with the curve generating a 34.9% whiff rate and a +1.0 pitch value, while the cutter posted a 33.9% CSW rate and a +0.7 pitch value. By contrast, his fastball carried a –1.6 expected pitch value and allowed significantly stronger contact.
Because of that, Mejia’s effectiveness may depend on how the Dragons shape his pitch mix going forward. Leaning more heavily on the cutter–curve combination could allow him to limit hard contact more consistently, even if he never develops into a true strikeout arm.
For now, Mejia projects as a middle-innings reliever who is potentially capable of providing length. If his secondary pitches take on a larger role, he could take a step forward.
11. Yugo Umeno
Umeno fits the profile of a middle-innings reliever whose effectiveness depends largely on his secondary pitches. After arriving from the Swallows organisation, he showed improved command in 2024, posting a 6.2% walk rate, although his strikeout numbers remained modest.
In 2025, Umeno’s velocity ticked up noticeably, with his fastball averaging 150.4 km/h, helping push his strikeout rate to 21.9%. However, the increased velocity came with reduced command, as his walk rate rose to 12.3%.
His fastball has not been particularly effective, carrying a –2.9 expected pitch value and allowing relatively strong contact. Instead, Umeno’s effectiveness tends to come from his secondary pitches, particularly his slider and splitter, both of which have generated solid swing-and-miss rates.
Because of that mix of velocity and inconsistent command, Umeno projects primarily as a middle-relief option capable of generating strikeouts in shorter bursts rather than a stable high-leverage arm.
Beyond the primary leverage arms, the Dragons bullpen becomes far more fluid. Much of this group projects as interchangeable middle-inning relief, with roles likely determined by short-term performance and the organisation's willingness to rotate arms between the farm and the top team.
Depth
12. Mao Ito
Ito is a slider-driven right-hander who has shown flashes of swing-and-miss ability in the farm system but has yet to translate that consistently to the top team. In 2025, on the farm, he posted a 23.9% strikeout rate while limiting contact well, allowing just a .277 wOBA on contact.
Much of that effectiveness comes from his slider, which generated roughly a 30% whiff rate and carried a +1.8 pitch value. However, his command remains a major obstacle. Ito walked 17.7% of hitters on the farm last season, which kept his overall K-BB% to just 6.2% despite the solid strikeout numbers.
With a fastball sitting around 143–145 km/h and functioning mostly as a setup pitch for the slider, Ito profiles as a depth reliever who will need to tighten his command before he can establish himself in a more consistent bullpen role.
13. Akira Neo
Neo remains one of the more difficult pitchers in the Dragons' system to evaluate. Despite solid arm strength and a fastball that sits around 146–147 km/h, the pitch itself has consistently graded poorly, posting a –5.5 pitch value on the farm in 2025 and allowing relatively strong contact.
At times, his secondary pitches have shown promise. In 2024, he briefly flashed a deeper arsenal, with both his slider and cutter generating strong swing-and-miss rates, including a 50% whiff rate on the slider and a +3.6 breaking pitch value overall. However, that version of Neo has not been consistent.
In 2025, he largely simplified his repertoire into a three-pitch mix built around the fastball, slider, and splitter. The change coincided with a decline in performance, as his strikeout rate dropped to 17.5% while his walk rate climbed to 14.8%.
Interestingly, the cutter Neo briefly experimented with in 2024 showed strong underlying numbers, generating nearly a 40% whiff rate. Given the persistent struggles of his four-seam fastball, a repertoire built more heavily around the cutter and slider could potentially give him a more effective path forward, following the broader modern trend of pitchers leaning more heavily on cutters rather than traditional four-seamers. With a 0.43 GO/AO ratio, it's quite clear that something has to change if he is going to be useful in the smaller confines of the Vantelin Dome in 2026.
Because of that combination of an inconsistent fastball and fluctuating pitch mix, Neo currently profiles as organisational depth rather than a reliable bullpen option.
14. Kunitada Shinozaki
Shinozaki is the biggest wild card in the Dragons' bullpen depth chart. The 2025 third-round pick out of the Tokushima Indigo Sox brings an intriguing physical profile, standing 193 cm and 100 kg with a fastball that has touched 157 km/h.
In the independent leagues, he showed flashes of that power arm, striking out 49 batters in 47.1 innings, although command remains a work in progress with 28 walks over the same span. His arsenal includes a fastball, slider, curve, and forkball, giving him the raw ingredients of a power reliever if the command improves.
Because of his youth and limited professional experience, Shinozaki remains more of a developmental arm than an immediate bullpen option, but the combination of size and velocity gives him a higher ceiling than many of the depth relievers in this tier.
15. Hiroto Fuku
Fuku has been a steady presence in the Dragons' bullpen for several seasons, but the underlying indicators suggest his margin for error is shrinking. His fastball velocity has gradually declined from 143 km/h in 2020 to around 140 km/h in 2025, and his strikeout rate has dropped from roughly 20% earlier in the decade to just over 15% in recent seasons.
The left-hander still relies heavily on a fastball-slider combination, but the slider that once carried positive pitch value has lost much of its effectiveness in recent years. As a result, Fuku now profiles more as a contact-oriented depth rather than a swing-and-miss reliever.
With several younger left-handed options emerging in the organisation, including development arms such as Akio Moriyama and potential bullpen conversions like Konosuke Fukuda, Fuku may find himself competing simply to remain in the bullpen mix. Entering his age-33 season, this could be a pivotal and potentially final year for the veteran left-hander.
Overall Bullpen Outlook
Stepping back from the individual profiles, the overall shape of the Dragons' bullpen becomes fairly clear. Unlike some NPB teams that lean heavily on overwhelming velocity, this group is built more around contact management and groundball suppression, with a few key swing-and-miss arms anchoring the back end.
Shinya Matsuyama remains the clear centrepiece of the unit and one of the most dominant relievers in the Central League. Assuming Koki Saito returns healthy and pitchers like Akiyoshi Katsuno or Albert Abreu can stabilise the bridge to the ninth inning, the late-inning structure is reasonably solid even with Tatsuya Shimizu expected to miss significant time.
Where things become less certain is in the middle innings. Much of the bullpen depth consists of pitchers who rely on inducing weak contact rather than missing bats outright. That profile can work, particularly behind a strong defensive infield, but it also introduces volatility if batted-ball luck swings the wrong way.
One additional factor worth watching in 2026 is the introduction of the new outfield terraces at Vantelin Dome. Historically, Nagoya has been one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in NPB, suppressing home runs and allowing contact-oriented pitchers to thrive. The new dimensions are expected to modestly increase home run rates, particularly to the pull side.
That change may alter the risk profile of this bullpen. The pitchers most exposed to a potential increase in home runs may be the bullpen's contact-oriented flyball arms. Both Kento Fujishima and Humberto Mejia sit below league average in strikeout rate while allowing a relatively high proportion of balls in the air. In the previous Vantelin run environment, that profile carried relatively little risk, but if the terrace configuration turns a few warning-track fly balls into home runs, those pitchers could be among the most affected.
On the other hand, the bullpen has a few high-strikeout arms. Matsuyama, Katsuno, and potentially Abreu become even more valuable in that environment. If the park does indeed play smaller, the ability to simply remove the ball from play with strikeouts becomes a more important trait at the back end of games.
The composition of the bullpen may also reflect a deliberate attempt to maintain a diverse set of pitching profiles. Manager Kazuki Inoue noted when the Dragons signed Mao Ito in the 2024 Active Player Draft that he wanted “a variety of options” in the bullpen, and the current group reflects that philosophy. The unit contains a mix of power, strikeout arms, groundball specialists, and command-oriented contact managers, giving the staff flexibility to deploy different types of pitchers depending on the game situation.
Ultimately, this bullpen probably sits somewhere in the middle of the Central League hierarchy, much like it did in 2025. The top-end talent is strong enough to close games effectively, but the overall group lacks the overwhelming strikeout depth seen in some of the league's more dominant relief units. If a few of the emerging arms, such as Ren Kondo or Kenshin Makino, take a step forward, however, the overall ceiling could be higher than it initially appears.
