Time for a view of the yearly player budget. I've played around with how I present this a little bit to be both international and more true to the actual money being used. I've added in some different statistics like OPS+ and ERA+ as well. Overall, this is also a way to view who was rated to have had a good season, and who was below expectation. Our view of some stats allows us to make the decision if those decisions were maybe fair or not.
First things first, two players appear on this list that have been announced since my last post. That of new Cuban arrival, Randy Martinez. Former MLB top prospect, and likely starter reinforcement, Kyle Muller also joins from the Athletics. Martinez joins on a development deal, which we can just straight-up assume will be a ¥10M deal as they always are. Muller, however, I don't have a gauge on how much they're paying him, but my estimate would be about ¥150M which would just about be MLB's minimum salary. I'll update this list as more information becomes available. The deals negotiated with Vosler, Calixte and Mejia have also not been revealed, so I have listed these as 'TBA'. I have however taken an educated guess on how much they've been paid to give an idea of the overall salary.
The big winners in contract negotiations were Hiroto Takahashi and Seiya Hosokawa. Others made big leaps as well but not with quite the same amount of compensation. Mikiya Tanaka, Shinya Matsuyama, Tatsuya Shimizu and Hiroki Fukunaga made significant salary jumps. Unsurprisingly, The big losers were, Yudai Ono whose 3-year deal following his Sawamura Award-winning 2020 season runs out with Yohei Oshima's similarly long-term deal was also slashed by ¥150M. The payroll also saw Dayan Viciedo's contract leave the books, while Raidel Martinez's departure collectively saved the Dragons over ¥500M. Michael Feliz's ¥100M has also come off the books while even Shinnosuke Ogasawara's not meagre ¥93M may well not be an issue by the end of the off-season.
USD amounts have been calculated based on the recent exchange rate of 0.64c to ¥100. The idea here is to give international audiences an idea of what kind of money is being paid in Japan and what the overall payroll looks like. I also want to show how much imports are getting paid relative to a theoretical MLB or MiLB salary. Yen amounts given are the same as how they're reported which is in tens of thousands of yen. That is, if a value is 100, the player is getting paid 10x that amount in yen. So this would be ¥1,000,000.
Let's take a look at the money through pitchers first and then we'll look at hitters followed by all departures. I will then talk a little about the overall payroll and the changes between 2023 and 2024. I will also try to extrapolate to previous years to see if there is a trend that payroll is increasing, decreasing or simply holding steady.
Trying a new way to show the data using Flourish. Let me know if you find it difficult to read or parse through. You can rearrange the data in each column by pressing on the column title.
Yudai Ono was the biggest loser overall while Yuya Yanagi and Daisuke Sobue both had their veteran salaries chopped. The young trio of Hiroto Takahashi, Tatsuya Shimizu and Shinya Matsuyama make out like bandits after all three had a very successful 2024. Hiroto Takahashi breaking through the 100M yen barrier was the fastest for a 5th-year high school graduate in club history. Takahashi's season was also record-breaking having the 6th best ERA in Central League history for a qualified pitcher. He also became the first Central League pitcher to end the season with an ERA in the ones since Minoru Murayama in 1970. For the Dragons, he had the single-best ERA in the post-war, 2-league NPB. Of course, ERA has a lot of other dependent factors, but it's still an amazing feat. I have not included Shinnosuke Ogasawara as of yet with his posting saga continuing. Should he join the fold again, I will update this list accordingly. Let's now have a look at the hitters.
Those that deserved to get paid, are getting paid. Hosokawa, Fukunaga, Muramatsu and Tanaka all get rewarded for good seasons and first-team regulars (maybe not necessarily "good" in Tanaka's case). Hosokawa and Fukunaga were among the league's leading hitters in 2024 in the Central League with both building on great seasons in 2023. Hosokawa repeated his heroics and a bit more raising his OPS 100 points and hitting for better average. Fukunaga was the unsung hero of the team as he similarly hit at a very high level. Sho Nakata's contract weighs heavy on this side of the books, but it's only for one year longer. Yohei Oshima showed signs of his decline in 2024 and with his contract coming to an end, the team have also decided to cut his salary significantly, but this probably reflects his relative contribution more now. Oshima was a part-time player and hit below .200 in 2023. At 39 years old in 2025, his journey in professional baseball may be nearing an end. Bringing Kinoshita back for even more money after his dismal season is the only thing that perplexes me. Not only was he bad offensively but also bad defensively. He perhaps gets a bonus for exploring the free agent market, but a ¥20M bump is a bit too generous. He threw out runners at a 15.6% success rate, ranking among the worst in the league while, as I mentioned in my OPS+ article, was the second-worst catcher ranked for OPS+ at 88. Given Shingo Usami's above-average bat and the urgency to make something of Kota Ishibashi, I question this decision, but that's perhaps an article for another day.
Now to the cuts. Viciedo and Martinez's deals were paid in US dollars originally, so this complicates things. Salary is then depending on the exchange rate and this has fluctuated year-to-year. I have found what I think is the correct details of this and have added it below.
Viciedo's contract was getting heavier and heavier as the USD to JPY exchange rate got worse. He earned ¥50M in his final year. His deal was $10M over 3-years. Martinez similarly was signed to a 2-year roughly $5M deal whereas it appears Feliz received his paycheck in yen. This list for the time being includes current free agent Koji Fukutani who is talking with the Swallows and Fighters among other teams. I would suggest the fact this is even being reported would indicate he'll likely move. No news broke about Kinoshita and teams he was supposed to be talking to. Shinnosuke Ogasawara I've similarly added, but once again, I will revise should a move not materialise.
Through departures alone, the Dragons are saving ¥1.3B ahead of the 2024 season. After factoring in raises and confirmed new additions, the Dragons have spent ¥570M. For the pending international signings, conservative estimates would be: Muller at ¥150M (roughly MLB minimum), Vosler at ¥100M (typical for AAAA-type veterans), Calixte at ¥70M (after making 100+ appearances), and Mejia at ¥90M (slight decrease after a down 2024). Even with these conservative estimates adding ¥410M to the payroll, the Dragons are likely to save ¥800-850M compared to 2024. This would leave the yearly team salary at about ¥2.4B for 2025. The question then is, would this indicate room to spend? At this stage, I would caution that the answer is likely, no.
I've visualised the data as best I can here, but it's obvious that 2024 was an outlier year. Even 2023, was on the high end of what the Dragons have spent in the last 10 years. The median spend for this period was about ¥2.52B. I would deduce that it is far more likely that salary remains roughly where it is than a big-name capture coming from overseas. Baystars reliever J. B. Wendelken is still on the market, and there were reports that the Dragons were interested. Reports still seem that the Dragons want an international reliever to bolster the bullpen. That being the case, we may see a slight uptick, but I don't think it would be more than ¥100M. This would just about be in line with median spending. Looking ahead to next year, Sho Nakata's deal will come off the books leaving the team with no big salary earners allowing for similar flexibility to give sizeable pay bumps to players like Hosokawa and Takahashi if they have another big year in 2025.
The ownership representative Uichiro Oshima may see things differently in terms of spending compared to the late Bungo Shirai who preceded him as club president. Chunichi Shimbun however has had decreased sales each year since 2020. Unless there has been a change of heart in seeing the team as a possible driver of sales rather than a loss-driven affair, then it would seem unlikely that a large surplus would be available for reinforcements.
There will be a lot of happy younger players on this roster ahead of 2024, getting their reward for productive seasons. The Dragons have been fortunate that several big money deals have come off the books ahead of 2025 which will give them slightly more wriggle room to give bigger bumps to talented players coming through the ranks. Where this might max out is something to consider in the years to come. During the Ochiai period, salaries were a lot higher with many high-earning veterans, but this was also a period when the Chunichi parent company was seeing more healthy sales. Maybe the Dragons will end up posting more and more players in the future to save/make money? We'll see.
Many thanks for your attention. Please drop any comments you might have below or on Reddit where I will inevitably post this to /r/NPB and /r/ChunichiDragons. Until my next post, ciao.
The Dragons are facing some notable changes this off-season, with potential shifts in both their pitching rotation and bullpen. Two key players potentially departing: starting pitcher Shinnosuke Ogasawara, who has been posted to the Major Leagues, and star closer Raidel Martinez, who has become a free agent after six seasons with the team. The team will also welcome a new veteran from across the Pacific in American Jason Vosler.
First of all, I'd like to get into news that may appeal to fans of MLB teams who may be curious about what Shinnosuke Ogasawara is all about. My run-down has a very Dragons flavour to it, but I hope it gives a bit more understanding of the player.
Ogasawara Stamped for MLB Posting
Some of the big news of the off-season is that of Shinnosuke Ogasawara's posting to the MLB. Ogasawara's potential move to the MLB however is an exciting prospect that fans haven't really had since Kenshin Kawakami moved to the Atlanta Braves in 2009 and Wei Yin Chen to the Orioles in 2012.
Is that a big bag of cash and appreciation?
MLB clubs will be given a quartet of Japanese starting options this off-season at different stages of their careers. Tomoyuki Sugano of the Giants, a Sawamura and MVP award winner, has declared international free agency, and at 35 years of age represents a "ride into the sunset" option that has veteran class but is certainly on the downturn. Ogasawara is a middle-of-the-road option that will cost posting money and represents a little bit more upside than Sugano but hasn't really had the accolades. While the Tigers have agreed to post Koyo Aoyagi, a 30-year-old groundballing sidewinder. The diamond of the quartet however will be Rōki Sasaki of the Chiba Lotte Marines who has been the focus of speculation for a move to the MLB for several years. Sasaki throws a 100mph fastball with a killer splitter and by far has the highest ceiling of the four. Unlike Ogasawara and Aoyagi, however, a posting fee isn't required for Sasaki with a much more even keel in international pool money required due to his age. This essentially gives Sasaki the same opportunity Shōhei Ōtani had to pick and choose his destination as monetary offers are all going to be in the ballpark of good enough.
My job here however isn't to talk about Sugano, Aoyagi and Sasaki, but I hope that contextualises the market for Japanese starting pitchers. Ogasawara is a higher upside play than Sugano and Aoyagi and is more open to a move than Sasaki to a variety of teams. The posting fee however represents a barrier alongside the general starting pitching market for arms of his level.
Let's get into Ogasawara.
Dragons' 2015 1st round draft pick, Shinnosuke Ogasawara was granted to be posted to the Major leagues earlier this off-season after murmurs existed of this possibility for some time. Ogasawara spent time in the US during the off-season training alongside Cubs World Series winning closer, Aroldis Chapman. As Ogasawara seems to be one more year away from international free agency, this was the year for the Dragons to make a little money before he likely left on his own. If successful, Ogasawara will become only the second player to be posted by the Dragons after Akinori Ōtsuka in 2003 and only the 4th Japanese Dragon in history after Otsuka, Kosuke Fukudome and Kenshin Kawakami to play in the MLB.
There has been rumour of several MLB teams interested in his services, including the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays. The Angels are apparently very interested. Given Ogasawara's level compared to other free-agent starters, I am concerned a deal won't be reached before the posting deadline. Not many 4-5 starter types get cleared off the board early due to teams trying to look for pitchers with the highest amount of upside first. I feel it would take an FO who is a real fan of Ogasawara to make a move materialise. If the reports regarding the Angels are correct, then that might be the kind of team that would bring him on.
Ogasawara was one of two pitchers last year to pass the innings total to be considered for post-season awards on the Dragons alongside Hiroto Takahashi. I think it's worth being sceptical about Ogasawara as a potential major leaguer, but I would put him in that 4-5 starter range with a little bit of upside. I don't think he's the same calibre of pitcher as fellow lefties, Yusei Kikuchi and Shota Imanaga but he could still have an impact in the US. I'd like to go through some of his numbers and provide a little context and maybe some hope for his success in the US.
Ogasawara did not have a particularly good year but it wasn't a disaster either. a 3.12 ERA was above the league average of 2.88. Ogasawara similarly failed to strike out a lot of batters this year either with a minuscule 5.1 SO/9, somewhat down from his 7.5 in 2023 and 8.7 in 2022. The downward trend is of course concerning, however, I have long had my suspicions that Dragons coaches under Kazuyoshi Tatsunami had been promoting a pitch-to-contact approach. Hiroto Takahashi has been at another level and I don't think there's much argument at the moment that he has the higher ceiling of the two, however, Ogasawara's stuff is not getting Ks like his teammate. Ogasawara however looked like he was finally ditching the many injuries that plagued his career in the 2021-2022 seasons, but his ability to take strikeouts decreased significantly in 2023 and 2024. I think what this does go someway to suggesting is, that there is potential there is also the chance he may be on a decline. Given his age, however, I would bet on a bounce-back year in 2025.
Ogasawara had a good start to the year, with a 2.40 ERA up until the All-Star break. After the All-Star games, however, he had a much more inflated 4.63 ERA suggesting some tiring as the season trudged through the summer heat. His home and away splits are also a little alarming where he had a 2.23 ERA at Vantelin Dome but a 4.02 ERA elsewhere. Not a strange phenomenon for many Dragons starters in recent years. His 3.29 FIP suggests he was worse than his ERA is, suggesting some help from the Dragons' defence and the dome.
Ogasawara's performance showed both promise and areas for improvement. His home run suppression was notably strong, with an HR/9 of just 0.56, indicating his ability to keep the ball in the park. However, batters still managed a .270 average against him. One of his consistent strengths remained his control; he issued only 22 walks across 144 1/3 innings in 2024, demonstrating his precision.
Ogasawara's pitch arsenal reveals both limitations and potential. His fastball, which sits between 90-93 mph, was his primary pitch in 2024 (52% usage) but proved less effective, generating a mere 5.01% whiff rate and allowing a .315 batting average against. More promising were his secondary pitches: a rarely used forkball with a 21.74% whiff rate and a change-up at 14.29%. This suggests significant room for pitch-mix adjustment.
While Ogasawara's YouTube teasing has left fans in suspense, the potential of his move remains exciting. If he departs, the Dragons will need to strategically fill his rotation spot. Interestingly, history shows that teams sometimes flourish after losing a key player - consider the Carp after Maeda or the Baystars following Imanaga's departure.
What are the impacts on the Dragons' rotation ahead of 2025? Ogasawara is one less reliable arm that the team can lean on throughout the year. The additions of Seiya Yoshida and Yumeto Kanemaru in the 2024 Draft will lessen the blow for the team, but I don't necessarily expect either rookie to cover for the 140+ innings that Ogasawara provides. The return of Yudai Ono plus some combination of Kanemaru and Yoshida throughout the year might be enough. There are also additional rumours the team is chasing some Dominican Winter League arms to bolster the rotation. Between Ono, Yoshida, Kanemaru, Matsuba and Toshiya Okada (who appears to be preparing to start in 2025), the team has just about enough lefty options for the opening-day rotation, but if Ogasawara were to stay, then the floor of that rotation is of course much higher.
My prediction remains that Ogasawara will ultimately make his move to MLB, eventually. The timeline of the posting system and his relative ability make me sceptical that something will materialise, but the MLB market seems to be moving relatively quickly this off-season, so there may still be interest. The posting deadline is the 15th of December and Ogasawara will have 45 days to negotiate with a team. So, watch this space. We have until the 29th of January 2025 to know what his future will be.
On a more personal note, I want to comment on Ogasawara the person. Ogasawara has really come out of his shell as he's aged. While relatively serious business as an 18-year-old trying to impress when he first joined the organisation, Ogasawara has become one of the faces of the team. For the last three or so years, he has been the team representative on the yearly "Pro Baseball players Spill the Truth Job Tune" variety show and has otherwise been a bright light in an otherwise all-work and no-play Dragons organisation. He has developed a good sense of humour. On the show, he admitted to not having a love interest for which he was grilled and encouraged to confess his love for the co-hosting actress as practice. While dramatic, Ogasawara was unfortunately turned down, but his ability to appreciate self-deprecating humour has been ingratiating.
In the end, Ogasawara is likely only a year or so away from international free agency, he will make the move in the future, even if it isn't this off-season.
Of course, the lefty from Fujisawa isn't the only Dragon facing a potentially transformative off-season. Star closer Raidel Martinez also finds himself at a career crossroads.
Raidel to ride off?
The other big news about possible incomings and departures is that of star closer Raidel Martinez. The 100 mp/h slinging Cuban righty has been indomitable at the back of the Dragons bullpen since he was installed as closer in the 2020 season capturing two save titles and making four All-Star appearances.
Dat strikeout.
Since joining the team in 2017, Martinez has steadily signed extensions usually in two or three-year bunches as his role has expanded. As of 2024 however, Martinez's three-year, ¥200,000,000 per year deal (about $1.35M USD) that he signed at the end of the 2021 season has expired. Unlike compatriot and former team-mate, Yariel Rodriguez, who signed with the Toronto Blue Jays last off-season, there does not appear to be even a suspicion of Martinez defecting. As such, the Japanese market is being explored with the DeNA Baystars, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks, and most recently, the Yomiuri Giants suggested as possible destinations. Latin baseball journalist, Francys Romero on Twitter/X has been the most cited source regarding these discussions having previously mentioned that Martinez was being tabled offers in the $8M-$10M per year range.
Manager, Kazuki Inoue has pulled out all stops to try and keep Martinez in Nagoya sitting down with the pitcher to map out his strong desire for him to stay, the front office has apparently tabled a multi-year deal that would multiply his current earnings. Whether or not this is a competitive offer next to what the Giants, Baystars and Hawks can table, is yet to be seen, but historically this has not been the case. If initial reports of a deal with an AAV of $8M-$10M are remotely true, this would be more than double the highest salary the Dragons have ever given out, and that was to star closer Hitoki Iwase who received a 4-year ¥430,000,00 AAV deal in 2007. Martinez has expressed a desire to stay with the Dragons saying "I feel really comfortable with the team. I don't really want to leave the Dragons, but it's not a situation where I can say I can be back."
I think the subtext here is that the Cuban Ministry of Sports have a significant say on where Martinez goes but it could also indicate that salary will be a major driver for his next move.
Martinez came to the Dragons in the first batch of Cuban players exported to the Dragons through the Cuban Ministry of Sports in 2017. At the time, Martinez arrived alongside countryman and outfielder Leon Urgelles. Originally tested as a starter under Shigekazu Mori, the team quickly found a role for him in the bullpen during Tsuyoshi Yoda's first year in charge in 2019. Following injury and form slumps to closer Shinji Tajima and the retirement of Hitoki Iwase, Martinez was entrusted with closing out games not too long after. Despite not having a great team around him, Martinez established himself as the premier closer in the Central League. In 2020, Martinez became part of the indomitable "Daifukumaru" trio alongside Daisuke Sobue and Hiroto Fuku with a 1.13 ERA. He would capture his first save title with 39 in 2022, and of course finished 2024 with the same title with a career high 43 saves, the second most by a Dragons closer. Martinez finished the 2024 season with 166 saves as a Dragon putting him 2nd on the team's all-time list surpassing Kuo Yuen-chih (116) in 2023.
On 30 November, it was revealed that Martinez had officially become a free agent. Players like Koji Fukutani, who is still exploring the market, and Ogasawara who is pending posting, remained on the list of Dragons players ahead of the 2025 season, at least for the time being. Martinez leaving this list, is one more nail in the coffin for his possible retention with the team.
Of course, there will need to be a reshuffle of the bullpen with the closer leaving. Shinya Matsuyama has already been suggested to be Martinez's replacement as the team's stopper. With Matsuyama moving up in the bullpen hierarchy, this means that theoretically, one more arm needs to stand up. At present, Tatsuya Shimizu, Yuki Hashimoto, Kōki Saitō and Kento Fujishima are the most likely to be the main four set-uppers based on 2024's results. There has however been mention that the team may be interested in Baystars' former reliever, J. B. Wendelken who was released by the Yokohama outfit this off-season despite a sub 2.00 ERA. I would certainly be open to bringing him in. The upside is still there and the Dragons have reasonable cover if injuries get the better of him like last year. It would also give new recruit Jason Vosler an American compatriot in the team, which was rumoured to be an issue for Alex Dickerson as he struggled to adjust to living in Japan. The potential move of Martinez in addition to the potential earnings made through Ogasawara's posting should allow the team to submit a financially competitive bid. (I will be following up later this year when player contracts have been finalised as to how much is being spent)
While it looks likely that Martinez will be in a different uniform in 2025, the Dragons are still in a good position to have a very good bullpen ahead of Inoue's inaugural year as manager.
As the Dragons contemplate potential roster changes in their pitching staff, they've also been active in addressing offensive needs
Jason Vosler to jet in
In late November it was made slip that the Dragons had an agreement in principle with Seattle Mariners AAA veteran, Jason Vosler and confirmed a few days later by MLB Trade Rumors. Vosler played a few games with the Mariners last year but had the majority of his time in the majors with the San Francisco Giants. The 31-year-old approaches the plate from the left-hand side while he can field in any of the corners. Given his positional flexibility, relatively low cost and potential upside, this seems like a smart enough signing. Vosler hit 31 homers at a 118 OPS+ in AAA last year but had an okayish 25% strikeout rate.
Pack your bags, its off to NPB.
What can we expect? The mind recalls Mike Gerber, brought in by Alonzo Powell and Tsuyoshi Yoda who similarly had a good record in AAA but failed to make much of an impact in NPB. Unfortunately, Gerber had COVID-19 take away a year of game time from him, so maybe it isn't a fair comparison as Vosler played 129 games between AAA and the Majors in 2024. However a slightly more in-depth look at the stat line of both players the year before they came/will come to Japan reveals Vosler to be the slightly more polished of the two. Both played in the Pacific Coast League, Gerber for Sacramento and Vosler for Tacoma with the league average OPS being about 32 points lower in 2019 than in 2024. Let's have a quick look at each individual stat line:
Player
Year
G
PA
AB
H
2B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
BA
OPS
Gerber
2019
119
513
464
143
41
26
83
39
140
0.308
0.937
Vosler
2024
119
524
466
141
25
31
110
46
113
0.303
0.944
While Vosler is much older than Gerber, the stat lines here are very similar. The strikeout rate is perhaps the major difference where Vosler seems to be making more contact. Everything else is very similar down to the OPS. However, as has been my theme of late with OPS+, Vosler's numbers were marginally better in the 2024 PCL season than Gerber's in the 2019 PCL season. Gerber's 113 OPS+ is still good, but not as good as Vosler's 118 OPS+, a good 5% better than Gerber's season. Relative to the position they played, Gerber a sometime centre-fielder and Vosler a corner utility, these numbers are probably pretty comparable when considering overall value, but Vosler in this case seems to have the better bat. I'm also encouraged by the lower SO% which was a major concern for Gerber when he came to the Dragons. Vosler also comes to Japan fresh from an injury-free 2024 season whereas Gerber came into camp in Spring 2021 having not played any games in 2020. Vosler also comes with a more substantial MLB career, much more in the vane of Alex Dickerson than Gerber.
This likely looks like another signing sourced through Akinori Ōtsuka, but given the overlap between Alex Dickerson and Vosler in the Giants organisation, I wonder if there was a snowball scouting method used here, with Ōtsuka asking Dickerson about any former team-mates who might be interested in coming to Japan. Vosler and Dickerson were teammates at the Giants between AAA Sacramento and the Majors in 2021.
Vosler's left-handed corner bat with extra base potential is exactly the kind of player the Dragons were looking for, and I would argue have needed for the last few years. The fact that he has positional flexibility is just icing on the cake. I have been asking for a left-handed corner outfield bat with pop for a few years now, and I'm glad the Dragons have found someone with potential, however at 31 there is a risk he will be nothing and struggle to adapt. Let us however roll the visa player roulette once more. At the very least, this is a better fit than many other hitters that have come in. Dickerson potentially also filled that role, but injuries unfortunately derailed his tenure in Japan. However, Vosler is younger than Dickerson and has most recently been playing at a higher level. Let's hope these are good omens.
Since taking over, Inoue has stressed defensive flexibility, expecting his players to be able to defend at least two positions. Vosler further fits this mould. I think there is also a chance he could be used as a platoon with Shō Nakata or Seiya Hosokawa at first base, while he could certainly see time in the outfield, maybe in a platoon situation with Orlando Calixte in left field. From a line-up mix, a left-handed slugger was something that was missing. The Dragons I think can be happy with this capture. My only hope is that Vosler stays healthy and performs to even an average standard. Even a 100 OPS+ first baseman would go a long way to improving this offence.
My bar for a first-baseman or an international slugger is that of Matt Clark. An American who played one season in Nagoya under Morimichi Takagi in 2013. He was solid and, I'd say, fairly underrated, particularly given the quality of some of the players that have followed in the last decade. A Matt Clark-esque season (which was 112 OPS+) would be great.
The Dragons roster is getting yet another shake-up. With the active player draft also on the horizon, there will likely be at least one more move before the year end. Once again, let's get our hopes up that the team have the right mix of players to make a difference next season. There's still a chance that other international signings and trades may be made before the opening day, but so far we can be encouraged by the moves that have been made.
Some news and moves for you hip-shakers out there. Inoue's backroom organisation has been decided and I'd like to go into a little bit to show you that this is more of a shakeup than just the names.
Backroom shenanigans
We knew about who was coming in late October when it was announced Nobuhiko Matsunaka, Shinichirō Koyama, Yūji Iiyama and Masaaki Koike among others were announced to be joining the coaching team. I speculated how they might fit in but it seems my predictions were only about half right. In this first season of Inoue there are some new titles for coaches we've not seem before indicating a different kind of organisation and hierarchy. Let's get into it and then run a rule over the appointments and their titles.
Firstly, a lot of coaches that were with the farm team at Nagoya ballpark have been promoted along with Inoue. Shota Ono, Yutaka Nakamura, Daisuke Yamai and the dreamboat himself, Takuya Asao will start the year in 1-gun. Yamai had a splash as pitching coach last season before he was replaced by Eiji Ochiai halfway through the year, Asao, Ono and Nakamura are new to their roles at Vantelin Dome. Another change is that of Akinori Otsuka moving to a roving/development role having previously been the first team bullpen coach. Masahiko Morino maintains a batting coach role but now has the additional tag of 'strategist' which may indicate he is in charge of helping hitters with their approach. Of the new faces, Nobuhiko Matsunaka is given the role of hitting coordinator, seemingly elevated above Morino, and looks likely to drive the hitting coaching and philosophy on the top side. Yūji Iiyama similarly gets a newly established role as position player coordinator which may see him help with defense, base-running and hitting. A utility as a player, this role seems to reflect the flexibility he had in his professional career. Naomichi Donoue is the other who maintains the role he took under Tatsunami. This will be his 2nd year as infield defense and baserunning coach. Yutaka Nakamura clearly has the trust of Inoue having worked with each other at the Tigers and the Dragons farm side last season. Nakamura theoretically must have had his contract renewed as he was a mainstay from year one of Tatsunami's management.
My key point of interest is that there seems to now be a hierarchy established. I'm not entirely sure why Asao wasn't just given the role of "bullpen coach" if they were being specific with roles, but giving Matsunaka and Iiyama clearly defined coordinator roles, we may see fewer clashes between coaches which seems to have been a problem with Nori Nakamura (his 'Killing in the Name' approach didn't endear him to Tatsunami) in the last regime. Morino being given a strategist role also clearly delineates responsibility which may end up being more effective than the nebulous 'hitting coach' role that the organisation has traditionally used. This may lead to better communication channels within the organisation and cut through some of the foggy seniority between coaches and players leading to more clear-cut decision-making. The Japanese baseball world is a tricky place to navigate when it comes to social order. Whether that be senior-junior relationships from school or university, old teams, age or even the deference just shown to really good players, creating professional distance or at least some kind of line about who's in charge, I think makes sense in keeping people in the right space. In saying that, this will make or break Matsunaka's coaching career. If it goes right he'll be given the credit and if it goes wrong, he will take the fall.
One interesting part of this staff is Akinori Otsuka's roving role. The Dragons have had roving instructors previously with Alonzo Powell and Mitsuo Tateishi having free reign under Tsuyoshi Yoda, but it may well be that Inoue sees a benefit in keeping Otsuka around the team generally as an instructor rather than as a locked-in coach. Otsuka was largely credited with helping Koki Saito find his form and has also been praised for the tweaks he has offered other pitchers. Theoretically, this ability to offer help to those who need it rather than be stuck with the doldrums of bullpen management and the like may benefit Otsuka and the team.
On the pitching side, I'd expect Yamai to be Inoue right-hand man when it comes to starting pitching and management, with Asao more likely taking on a bullpen coach kind of role.
Overall, I think the 1-gun coaching team certainly shows potential. New faces in tuned roles may be the answer to unlocking more wins.
Now, onto the second team, similarly a lot of new and old but given the promotions to the top team, I feel the farm backroom has been given a good freshen up that will hopefully go a long way to bettering a Dragons development pathway.
The new additions are Masaaki Koike as hitting coordinator, a new pitching duo of Shinichirō Koyama as coordinator and the freshly retired Shinji Tajima with him. Ryōsuke Hirata takes on the outfield defense and base-running role while Kohei Oda drops back to the farm in a familiar battery coach role. Yutō Morikoshi maintains his appointment as infield defense and base-running coach while Masato Kobayashi joins in a development-pitching coach role alongside fellow developmental specialist and position player coordinator, Hiroyuki Watanabe. Finally, Nobumasa Fukuda returns in his role as farm hitting coach.
Here the coordinator roles once again pique interest. Koyama effectively being the head pitching coach given his experience with the Eagles is not surprising. Koyama bounced between pitching coach roles over the last 8-years with Rakuten following his retirement in 2015. Having shared the role with Tsuyoshi Yoda at times, there is an interesting flavour there that might align with Yoda's philosophies as well. Enticing Koike to join the Dragons after a long sting with the Baystars may have been sweetened by a similar role. Koike had a professional career between the Baystars and the Dragons before spending the last decade in the Baystars backroom. It is good to see that the farm is littered with a good mix of experienced coaches who have had success at other organisations with younger, former Dragons players now coaches. Having Tajima and Fukuda in supporting roles may be of some benefit to them in their development as well as take the 'jump in the deep end' kind of organisation they were previously engaged with. The more I consider it, the more I like the farm coaching staff on paper. Now it's up to their individual coaching nous and ability to come together as a team under Eiji Ochiai. Ochiai also comes to the role not inexperienced having previously managed the Samsung Tigers farm team in the KBO.
Between the two teams, I think Inoue has struck a decent balance of outside and inside knowledge. The added layer of organisational change has more clearly defined what each coach is responsible for hopefully giving additional focus for each coach. I also feel Inoue is likely to put more faith in his coaches than Tatsunami. And may take a similar approach to his former manager, Hiromitsu Ochiai in entrusting coaches to do the jobs they were employed to do and allow the specialists to specialise. The other minor point of interest is that between Inoue, Matsunaka, Morino and Iiyama there isn't a right-handed batting coach in the 1-gun team. On the farm, however, both Koike and Fukuda were right-handed hitters. Even Hirata and Watanabe pulled to left field during their careers too. I believe that a good coach should be able to teach either regardless, but it does break with the traditional make-up of the hitting coach teams of the past such as Wada and Morino last year. All pitching coaches are right-handed as well but I think Otsuka proved with Saito that you can still be a good instructor without sharing the same handedness.
Personality-wise, I think there are a lot of good light-hearted people. Matsunaka and Koike seem like hardmen in a way, but both have expressed their want to communicate with players, a keyword at most of the press conferences.
Some other interesting notes, the 2025 farm staff is completely different to the team unveiled by Tatsunami at the beginning of tenure aside from Oda and Watanabe. Toshio Haru was the only farm hitting coach in 2023 while Takashi Ogasawara (now with Softbank), Yamai and Asao took over the pitching. The manager obviously changed to Ochiai from, at the time, Atsushi Kataoka. Morikoshi, and Fukuda were appointed a year or two into Tatsunami's reign. It will be fascinating to see what this new coaching group can do on the farm in particular. Their ability to be instructors to help players develop could play a key role in the Dragons' farm continuing to putter along as it did under Inoue last season.
Finally, for fun, how did I go with my predictions? I went 5/9 with the 1-gun team. Otsuka did not end up being the head coach while Koyama was appointed to the farm with Morino maintaining his hitting coach role was a little bit surprising. I mentioned in my article that many of the appointments could go either way, so it's perhaps not all that surprising in the end. On the farm then, I'm 6/10. If I had 4 wrong with 1-gun I have to have just as many wrong on the farm. I'll take the over 50% success! 11/19 overall.
My friends, it is the off-season so that means we can go back to choofing on that hopium that next year will be a better year. We can at least take solace in knowing that change is afoot. Will it bring the wins that fans crave? That is still yet to be seen, but for now, let's enjoy the optimism that comes with a fresh perspective and a fresh change.
