Draft 2021 Predictions: Chunichi Dragons

Introducing your 2021 draftees...maybe. I have had some time to read more draft reports and get a better feeling for team needs. The Dragons have not announced a first-round pick like some of the other teams, hoping to keep everyone guessing. From my previous article, I have changed some of my predictions as more information has become available to me and it's here I will make my prediction. 

What the Dragons need is something to bolster the well publicized issue with their poor hitting. The Dragons top the league in ERA but are worst in just about every category that uses a bat. What is needed are power bats, and probably more than one or two. Ideally, this production needs to come from outfielders as this is the main area where the team is struggling. I also suggest that the team probably needs another second base option, someone who's maybe early 20s. Lastly, the team could do with a couple of younger arms, preferably a lefty and a righty. This then leads me to this round of picks:

Pick	Name	Position	Team
#1	Kenta Bright	OF	Jobu University
#2	Kyosuke Kuroyanagi	RHP	Chukyo Uni HS
#3	Kosuke Ukai	OF	Komazawa University
#4	Hibiki Yamashiro	IF	Fuji University
#5	Norihiro Nozaki	LHP	Gifu Commercial HS
#6	Kento Nakamura	OF	Toyota

I have stuck with some names and added in some different ones based on where I figure each player can be taken. This means Ukai drops a couple of places (as he isn't as highly rated as I thought) while I've now added in an infielder to give competition for places. 

First round should be either a pick between Jobu Univerity's Kenta Bright, or Keio University's Tomoya Masaki. Masaki has the bigger profile, but there are worries over his defensive ability. Some comparisons have been made to former Dragons and Eagles slugger, Takeshi Yamasaki. Left-field could be a place for Masaki until Viciedo can no longer occupy first-base. This however still leaves a blackhole in right-field that could be filled by a foreign outfielder but it's probably easier to fill a gap in left with an international signing. Given the team's propensity to value defense, I can see Bright being the top pick. He's more athletic but still has plenty of punch in his bat. My only concern is that the team might see him as attainable in the second round and then go after a highly rated arm in the first round instead, potentially missing out entirely. I hope this doesn't happen. Bright has said he wants to go to Chunichi so he can work with Kosuke Fukudome. 

In the second round, the Dragons should get an early pick so they'll get a shot at some of the better almost first round talent. This includes local boy, Kyosuke Kuroyanagi. He has been the Chukyo University High School ace and shows good velocity on his fastball. Injury I beleive befell him a little last year, but he was impressive in his outings in 2021. 

Kosuke Ukai is a big man with exciting power.

Ukai drops to #3 on my list. His power is unquestionable but defensive ability and plate discipline are still questions. I'd still draft him as high as I could as the potential of that power makes me salivate. 

Yamashiro would be the Dragon's second Okinawan
on the team after Katsuki Matayoshi.

At #4 I've gone with Fuji University's, Hibiki Yamashiro. Fuji U. is a talent stalking ground for Seibu usually, but on the website I frequent, the Dragons are the only ones to make comment on Yamashiro. An Okinawa native, Yamashiro has very exciting hitting statistics in the Tohoku College Leagues and can play accross the infield as well as in right-field. An heir apparent to Naomichi's utility, Yamashiro looks an exciting prospect. The Dragons have no one settled at second base or right-field; Yamashiro could plug either hole.

Nozaki would be a project to develop

Fifth round is where I think we'll snag a local lefty. Norihiro Nozaki has been solid for Gifu Commercial High School, one of Gifu Prefecture's traditional top 3. Similar profile to Kenshin Kakikoshi who was drafted a few years ago and is now doing quite well on the farm. 

Lastly, and this is possibly my least confident pick is Kento Nakamura another than I had selected in my previous prediction. I'm not sure if we'll be able to snag him so low (maybe Nozaki 6th and Nakamura 5th?) but this would be a good selection to bolster outfield stocks and just give the team more options. Experienced hitter who's apparently good in a pinch, he would definitely make a sound addition to the team.

In other Dragons draft news, despite his future somewhat in the air, manager Tsuyoshi Yoda will be the one pulling out a ticket if the first round goes to a lottery. 

Anything after the first two slots is going to be hard to predict but I think this is a relatively realistic rundown of what the Dragons could and should take this year given the reports I've read over the past few days.

The 2021 Draft will take place at 17:00 JST. SportsBull App has broadcast the draft the last few years.

Manager, you? The quest for the next Dragons manager.

Tsuyoshi Yoda is in the last year of his 3-year contract. Much speculation now has arisen as to who will become the next manager as the assumption is only one good season in the last three is a poor enough result for Yoda to be moved on. In normal circumstances this is probably true, however with parent company Chunichi Shimbun losing money during the pandemic through limited gate receipts and the general downturn in the newspaper business, it is very possible a cheaper option for next season will need to be considered. 

Yoda and his backroom team have a lot to answer for after a poor third season in charge. Despite a relatively positive 2nd season in which the team finished 3rd, their highest finishing position in almost a decade, 2021 has been a disaster hallmarked by the team's poor production with the bat. One would think that Yoda is halfway out the door but there have been many positives to his reign. Yoda came onboard with the mission to improve the pitching staff. Under Shigekazu Mori, the pitching was erratic. There was a time where you would expect a reliever to give up a run in any inning. Under Yoda however the pitching has become a core strength. Yudai Ono had a Sawamura Award winning year in 2020 and if it weren't for the ridiculous season Yoshinobu Yamamoto is having for the Orix Buffaloes, Yuya Yanagi would be the front-runner for the award this year. Whatever is happening is working. Unlike Mori's Dragons however, the hitting has been woeful. In the 2018 season, the Dragons looked dangerous with the bat. Dayan Viciedo and Ryosuke Hirata had career-high seasons. The team otherwise just hit well. The same cannot be said for Yoda's Dragons. A mere look at the hitting statistics of our outfielders this year could have you spitting in disgust. Only two regular hitters have an OPS of over .700; Dayan Viciedo and Takuya Kinoshita. Just, awful. It was hoped that the additions of former MLB instructor, Alonzo Powell and former Carp slugger, Kenta Kurihara would help in this regards but so far the reading hasn't been positive. 

So with all that in mind, who is there actually available to take over? Perhaps under normal circumstances, more than we know but the main names currently being discussed in the media are perennial contender Kazuyoshi Tatsunami, farm manager Toru Nimura and Yoda himself. Not much to get excited about. Tatsunami has been after the top job ever since Ochiai stepped down. Rumours are that his relationship with former owner Bungo Shirai meant that Tatsunami was frozen out of contention. However, with a new owner it is now said that that doors are ajar for a Tatsunami takeover. The third inheritor of the Mr Dragons moniker has been a vocal member of the media for some time now and even came on as a special instructor last spring to help with the Dragons hitters. Yota Kyoda and Akira Neo is particular were focuses of this instruction. However, what Tatsunami says in the media does not sound like those of a particularly competent manager particularly for the state the team is in. In a way, getting Tatsunami in, finally, and letting him have a go and succeed or fail would at least get the media off the Mr Dragons train finally. I am however not sold on his ability to be a good manager. 

Toru Nimura would be, I think, a reluctant recepient of the top job. One positive can be said is that the farm team under his tenure started off very well with the bat. They unfortunately tapered off as time passed, but the promise was there to start with. I quite like what Nimura has said in the past about his players and his approach. He is definitely a manager with a plan for his players and as a farm manager he will know how to get the best out of younger players. However, it does appear that his recommendations to the top team come from very strict criteria on who is ready and who is not. It is possible that Nimura is partially responsible for the lack of youth in the top team as he hasn't judged them to be ready for the task. In a way this can be seen as protecting the players to ensure they work out their trade on the farm. I think for the most part this is probably a good idea, but one then worries if he would actually lead a youth revolution in the team. 

 I personally think we'll probably see another year of Yoda, probably at a reduced wage, to firstly save some dough, and also just to see what might happen. Most of Yoda's staff's contracts are up this year as well which could see some meaningful chopping and changing. It has been reported that Tsutomu Ito and Yoda have had a falling-out and that would mean at least a new head coach. A new batting and pitching coach on the farm are probably required as well with Ken Kadokura leaving the team midway through the year while Toshio Haru is the only hitting instructor on the farm. Takayuki Murakami, organisational hitting coach, is probably on the way out while there could be further shuffling as well. That gives me some optimism. The hitting philosophy that is trying to be introduced may well take time to stick as well, who knows what another year will bring. 

So, I would assume that we'll see another year of Yoda. It's the most cost-effective for the team and I'm keen to see what another year might bring particulary with the team chasing some hitting talent really hard at the draft. It's also worth noting that Yoda was already chosen as the new manager before the 2018 draft where he pulled out Akira Neo's ticket. While the Olympics has delayed the season and any other end-of-season decisions (apart from senryokugai notices apparently), there has been talk that Yoda has sat in on scouting meetings and largely still has a say on team direction. I think this strengthens Yoda's chances of continuing. Somewhat serendipitously, the season running longer into the year than usual may be to Yoda's advantage as much of the preparation for the following season will need to be made now. Why not then give him another year?

With all that said and done however, I still want to do a little thought exercise. This would be for maybe, 2023. I am a big fan of what Hirokazu Ibata says. He speaks very intelligently about the game in a very nuanced way. He's a former all-star, Best 9, golden glove winner and was a key part of the Dragons for almost 15 years. He has great respect among the NPB community and I personally would love to see him get the nod to be Dragons manager at some point. With all that in mind, I spent a little bit of time thinking about what an Ibata led backroom could look like. I've tried to keep to coaches that Ibata has either played with or under throughout his career as well as some links to his alma mater, Asia University. 

1-Gun	Name
Manager	Hirokazu Ibata
Head Coach	Masahiro Kawai
Batting Coach	Kosuke Fukudome
""	Akira Eto
Pitching Coach	Kenshin Kawakami
""	Akifumi Takahashi
Battery Coach	Fumihiro Suzuki
IF Defense/Base-Running	Masahiro Araki
OF Defense/Base-Running	Norihiro Akahoshi

There should be a few familiar faces here. Kosuke Fukudome, Kenshin Kawakami and Masahiro Araki were all mainstays during the Dragons golden era at the turn of the century. Fukudome is one the Dragons best ever hitters and his influence has been marked this season. I think he'd be a wonderful instructor. Kawakami has a great relationship with Ibata and both of them talk quite often for CBC and on YouTube. Kawakami is another that speaks really intelligently about baseball. Listening to him talk about pitching makes me think he'd be a great mentor for Dragons starters. Araki has shown himself to be a great mentor and coach, so he sticks around. Some more interesting options otherwise. Masahiro Kawai is one of the older staff members here, but the master of bunt was a former farm manager for the Giants and played a key role in luring Ibata to the Giants initially. He has the experience and ties to the Dragons. Ibata played with him at the Dragons and would have interacted with him regularly with the Giants. Akira Eto is similarly one of the elder statesmen of the backroom, but the former Carp slugger has a close connection to Kawai and was part of the backroom at the Giants during Ibata's time there. The other major notable addition here is a sneaky one that wouldn't be appreciated by Tigers fans, Norihiro Akahoshi. Akahoshi is an Asia University alumnus and has a strong affinity for the Aichi region. He seems to be a closet Chunichi fan. While it was hard for me to demote Hidenori, having someone like Akahoshi and Araki working together to teach players how to swipe bases and run the base-paths would be something to see. Lastly, a couple of less noteworthy additions are that of former bullpen master, Akifumi Takahashi as the lefty reliever foil to Kawakami's righty starter coaching. Finally, Fumihiro Suzuki, who currently coaches in Korea was a former catcher for the Dragons drafted in 1998. He has significant experience coaching for the Buffaloes. I think he's be an okay addition as much as I'd like to retain Takeshi Nakamura. Kohei Oda was another option I had thought of. 

Overall, this I think is a good mix of coaches from outside the team and from within. Quite a few of them have experience coaching with other teams.

2-Gun	Name
Manager	Eiji Ochiai
Batting Coach	Toshio Haru
""	Koichi Sekikawa
Pitching Coach	Kazuki Yoshimi
""	Takuya Asao
""	Takashi Ogasawara
Battery Coach	Eiichi Nakano
IF Defense/Base-Running	Tadaharu Sakai
OF Defense/Base-Running	Hidenori

This part got fairly difficult very quickly but I've gone with something that's similar to what the team have had in the past but with some minor changes. Eiji Ochiai was actually someone I'd like to have as first-team pitching coach but I was finding it difficut to get a lefty-starter type to pair with him. So, I've handed him the reigns to the farm team. He's been managing the Samsung Lions farm team in Korea the last couple of years. He's a good character to have around and I think he could be a good manager. This would also allow for a succession should Ibata's tenure not go well. Koichi Sekikawa might be one that's hard to pry away from the Hawks where he's highly valued as a coach, but he and Ibata played together a little bit and his coaching credentials are not to be sneezed at. Kazuki Yoshimi joins the pitching coaching ranks while Eiichi Nakano, currently a bullpen catcher with the team, gets a promotion to bullpen coach for me. He's a former Asia University almunus and played alongside Ibata. Lastly, the only major change is Tadaharu Sakai who was a former Dragons defensive specialist. He's currently a coach with the Rakuten Eagles and would add some experience to the backroom here. 

Contracts, family situations and a whole other host of things may well impact the possibilites of these staff members actually coming together. Someone like Eto for example may well not be interested in coming back to coaching. Others like Kawakami and Akahoshi may be happy with their jobs commentating rather than coaching. This was all just based on some fun speculation. I'd be keen to see what others would have in mind for a possible backroom team in the post-Yoda era. 

I think we'll see another year of Yoda at least with a reassessment in 2022. If the team can recruit effectively, a couple of good bats could lift the entire line-up. Here's hoping.

Dragons release 6 in first round of senryokugai notices

 

The Dragons have announced their first round of senryokugai (release) notices for 2021. They will have another chance to do so following the draft, but this round has seen 6 players being told they're no long required. Among them are 3 outfielders and 2 pitchers. 

Outfielders

Name	Age	Position(s)	APP	AVG	AB	OPS
Issei Endo	33	CF, RF, LF	*71	0.242	207	0.685
Masataka Iryo	31	RF, LF	38	0.219	68	0.609
Kengo Takeda	27	CF, RF, 1B	93	0.132	41	0.414

This selection of players probably doesn't surprise many. Takeda is perhaps the most surprising of the three to be let go as he's spent the entire season in 1-gun as a defensive specialist. Playing mostly right-field and a bit of first-base, Takeda has been a useful addition defensively. It is odd that the Dragons would let go of a player that has spent the whole season with the top team, but with a significant shuffle required to get new outfielders in, there was no place left for the light hitting Takeda. Masataka Iryo has mosty been a pinch-hitting option, but his statistics are unfortunately underwhelming. If recruitment goes to plan in the off-season with a hard-hitting rookie and a gaijin outfielder getting picked up, then there really isn't room for Iryo who could easily have his role replaced by Kosuke Fukudome or Shohei Kato. Endo perhaps is the least surprising as he had an underwhelming year on the farm and otherwise has failed to impress since his rookie season in 2015. 

What does this do for the rest of the team make-up? These three plus the retiring Fujii clears a lot of dead wood. This leaves us with the current outfielders:

Name	Age	Position(s)	APP	AVG	AB	OPS
Ryosuke Hirata	33	RF	21	0.155	58	0.469
Yohei Oshima	36	CF	129	0.291	506	0.694
Kosuke Fukudome	44	RF, LF	87	0.222	189	0.656
Shohei Kato	30	RF, CF	46	0.206	102	0.522
Masaru Watanabe	28	LF, RF	39	0.210	105	0.538
Kaname Takino	25	CF, LF	38	0.103	29	0.306
Hironori Miyoshi	24	RF, CF	*89	0.208	216	0.578
Kosuke Ito	21	CF, LF, RF	20	0.063	16	0.188
Akira Neo	20	RF, LF, CF	67	0.169	154	0.473
Yuki Okabayashi	19	CF, LF, RF	12	0.154	13	0.374

This still leaves us with quite a few outfield 'options.' Neo is still listed as an infielder, but I've included him here as he played most of his games in the outfield this year. Apart from it not being pretty reading at the least, I think there are a few players that can fill the roles of Takeda and Iryo next year. Shohei Kato looks the most obvious option for both roles. He has a very good glove and a possibly okay bat. He's at worst, a Takeda and at best, a starting option in outfield. This could not be said for Iryo or Takeda. Fukudome will also hopefully be in a more reserved position next year playing mostly off the bench rather than his rather mammoth contribution this year. As you can see, he has the second most ABs out of any outfielder. Not bad for a 44 year-old but it doesn't say much for the team. Honestly, the team could even choose to trim back from this. Ryosuke Hirata could be living a charmed life and if the team are feeling particularly cut-throat, Masaru Watanabe could alo be in trouble. If the team do well in the draft, I could see them cutting Hirata as a way to save cash as well. Even though Hirata's contract is up, they'll still need to pay him a reasonable amount to stay on. An injury prone 33-year old that has recently been diagnosed with variant angina doesn't seem like a particularly good investment going forward. 

I see plenty of cover here for the departures and I don't think the team will be much worse off. That's still 10 players that can play the outfield and even with 3 on the field, that's still 2 that can sit on each bench in 1-gun and 2-gun. If the team bring in a further 3 outfielders in the draft, I could see maybe one more of these 10 being let go.

Pitchers

Name	Age	Position(s)	APP	ERA	IP	SO
Takuya Mitsuma	29	RHP	5	6.75	5.1	6
Taisuke Maruyama	27	RHP	*17	6.00	15	14
Randy Rosario	26	LHP	9	3.00	9	3

There's far less to talk about here. Mitsuma is perhaps the most surprising as he had his moments. He always seemed to be on the cusp of something great and didn't quite get there. He has a great fastball, but he just doesn't seem to get it going consistently enough. Unfortunately the former Musashino Heat Bears man will be leaving the team, but he has experessed a desire to continue his career and will attend the tryouts. Taisuke Maruyama was a 6th round pick in 2015 on somewhat of a lottery ticket. His college career had been dogged by injury but the murmurs at the time were that he was a top-2 pick had the injury worries not been there. Unfortunately, the former Toho High School ace failed to really recover from a number of injuries suffered with the Dragons as well. He had been on a development deal. Randy Rosario is a man that simply suffered because of the pandemic. Had he the normal pre-season I'm sure he would have been a great contributor, but unfortunately like Mike Gerber before him, he must bid farewell to the team.

If nothing else, the Dragons have now cleared out the roster quite a bit. Daisuke Yamai and Atsushi Fujii have confirmed their retirements while Mike Gerber has left the team. These players have alread been discluded from the equation while this further 5 (Maruyama's development status means he didn't count) means the team have, I believe, 61 available roster spots. While two of these will definitely be used for foreign players, the team still has 7 spots to play with ahead of the 2021 Draft. Will they actually sign 7 players? Probably not but at least now the option is there. If the team go after their usual 6 players and sign two foreigners, the team will only have 1 spot to play with.  There will probaby be another 2-3 players released to make room for mid-season promotions. If they really wanted to save money, jettisoning Hirata, Keisuke Tanimoto and Shota Ono would make a lot of sense. All three are the wrong side of 30 and would be expecting decent money to stay on another year. Hirata and Ono are wrapping up multi-year contracts while Tanimoto earns a veteran's wage. Clearing those three could save close to $1.5m. Will the team be that petty though? I somehow can't see it happening, but you never know. 

In conclusion, nothing of any particular value has been lost in this first round of cuts. Outfield needed to be shaken up and shaken it has been. The three pitchers leaving however are not huge losses. The honus is now on the team to recruit well in the draft.

Dragons 2021 Clean-out & Draft Predictions

The Dragons as of the end of the trade/registration window on the 31st of August had exactly 1 place left on their full-time roster. Space number 69 (nice) was taken up by Ryota Ishioka who was promoted from a development deal. While we were hoping for a trade to sure up things, this is the team we've been stuck with for the last month and a bit of the regular season. With a mind on the 2021 Draft in October, the team will have to do some significant trimming and decide who they want to keep around. 

The Dragons normally sign 6 players to the full-time roster per draft. I would expect roughly the same this year, with that in mind who is the most likely to leave? I will split this into Japanese and international players as I feel that the circumstances are different and need to be treated differently as well. Generally speaking as well, the team will have international signings anyway and I can see any outgoings being replaced by a similar number of incomings. 

So, with the number 6 in mind, who can we cut free from the roster? First of all, what key areas need to be strengthened? Well, that shouldn't be a question. It's the outfield. Outfielders not named Yohei Oshima have not been setting the world on fire. Kosuke Fukudome has surprised this year while Masaru Watanabe has recently shown that he could be the soluition in left-field. The problem however, is that the team still lack a world-beater in the corners and it is particularly right-field that I feel needs to be addressed with a college level player that can slot right in. Further work should also be done to bring in younger outfielders to create competition for places. So with that in mind let's think about who can be trimmed.

1. Atsushi Fujii (40)

Fujii has had a long career as a 4thish outfielder and the time has come to pull the curtain. He's 40 and hasn't been seeing many reps on the farm. He has declared he'll be hanging up his studs effective immediately. 

2. Daisuke Yamai (44)

Yamai is in a similar boat where I think there's really no more gas in the tank. His retirement has also now been confirmed. Sparse appearances on the farm are all he has to show this year. The team will want to bring in a new arm or two in the draft to bolster options. Yamai leaving brings down the average age of the team to a slightly healthier area.

3. Tatsuro Hamada (27) and Yu Sato (28)

The two pitchers haven't contributed very much this year. Sato has looked okay at times on the farm, but he's really taken a hit down the pecking order. In the tail end of 2018 he was the team's closer after having some great form down the stretch, but he has unfortunately failed to really build on that promise Injuries have also set him back, but compared to his peers he's really not getting a look in at the moment. His most recent outings with the top-team have been embarassing unfortunately and I wouldn't be surprised to see the team move on.

Hamada is probably best known for being in the same draft as Shohei Otani and Shintaro Fujinami. Hamada was touted as one of the high school top 3 of his draft class along with the aforementioned stars, but injuries have really hampered Hamada's progress. Successive surgeries have impacted his development and his only selling point right now is as a left-handed reliever of which the Dragons have a number of other options. Although still on the young side, if the Dragons need to clear someone out I won't be surprised if Hamada is on the list. 

4. Issei Endo (32), Masataka Iryo (31), Ryosuke Hirata (33)

Outfield is where I feel a lot of chaff could be removed. The four listed here are most likely going to be in the firing line. Masaru Watanabe may well have been listed here if not for his emergence down the stretch which will at least keep the team optimistic about his future come the year's end. 

Endo, Iryo and Hirata are now on the wrong side of 30. 

Endo never really reached the heights hoped for him after his impressive rookie year at short-stop in 2015. After being retrained to play the outfield, Endo became the 4th outfielder for the team. He's still quite mobile in the outfield but the days of him showing his potential are over. Too many have overtaken him with guys like Yuki Okabayashi and Kosuke Ito also breathing down his neck to get into the first team.

 Iryo similarly has never really had much about him aside from a bench role of sorts over the last two years. Iryo has also been a pinch-hitter. Iryo has a role within the team as a bit of a senior player that can hit for contact, but I'm not sure if that's going to be enought to save him if the team want to revamp their outfield.

Hirata obviously has the biggest potential out of the three, but he's also been hampered by injuries and form issues almost his entire career. Hirata has had perhaps one good year in the last 5 back in 2018 where he lead-off for Shigekazu Mori's team. This year also marks the end of his multi-year contract. What kind of salary he might want will determine if the team decides to keep him around. 

With all this in mind, who would I be looking to ship-off? I'd honestly just about ship them all off. Even if all of them left the club, the team would only have 1 roster space open after drafting 6 players. The only other option would be that the Dragons don't carry as many international players next year. 

At present the Dragons have on their books, Dayan Viciedo, Raidel Martinez, Yariel Rodriguez, Ariel Martinez, Randy Rosario and Mike Gerber. Viciedo looks very unlikely to leave despite being in the final year of the 3-year mega deal he earned at the end of 2018. Raidel Martinez is apparently attracting Major League interest, so he might be on his way out. Yariel Rodriguez and Ariel Martinez, have one more year with the team while the team have already farewelled Mike Gerber. Randy Rosario too will perhaps be lucky to stay on, an unfortunate result of the pandemic's effect on the sport. 

I think I've outlined a case for players leaving. So let's see what our cull-list looks like:

In this case, we've freed up 9 roster spaces giving us a total of 10 to play with. Given this is two retirements and three foreign players leaving, I think it's quite likely that the Dragons will release a further five players if not more. Raidel could stay but the Dragons have seemed to heat up on Frank Alvarez who could be a replacement. Gerber will however have to replaced by another foreign power bat. We'll see what happens there in the coming months. The only other player I'd say that is in danger would be Kengo Takeda but I feel his skillset is something that other players don't have in that he can be a decent defensive replacement in either center or right-field while not being required to get lots of ABs to develop his game as he seems to have plateaued. 

I'm going to theorize that the Dragons will likely want to keep about 3 spots open after the draft has finished if the past few years is anything to go on. The assumption also needs to be made that the team will probably sign 6 new players in the draft, again, keeping with tradition. Lastly, and this is harder to predict, we may see some players demoted to development deals to keep spots open on the roster. Candidates for this could be Sho Ishikawa and maybe Shotaro Fukushima and Tsubasa Kato.

Let's break this down a little bit:

• Gerber, Rosario & R. Martinez: Likely to replaced by 3 more foreign players including Alvarez. 
• Fujii & Yamai: Retired, opens up 2 spots
• Sato, Hamada, Endo, Iryo: Released, opens up 4 spots.
• S. Ishikawa, Fukushima, Kato: Released; re-signed to development deals; opens up 3 spots

If the team goes this way, then that will open up 9 spots on the roster allowing for 6 new signings through the draft as well as keeping 3 spots open for mid-season promotions and the like. 

With the above suggestions, the team now has 10 outfielders which is still a lot for what are essentially 6 position over 1-gun and 2-gun. I would almost be tempted to let go of someone else as well. What I hope for at the draft however is that the team attracts at least two power hitting outfielders, an infield power hitting prospect and then probably the usual smattering of pitchers. Luck plays a role at the draft, but if the team are serious about addressing the glaring issues in the line-up, they will go after bats with their first few picks. I've had a look over some of the players the team have been looking at and come up with a list that I think is relatively realistic and addresses several team needs. 

Kosuke Ukai is my top pick. He's one of the most promising power hitters in the draft this year. He's also an Aichi native which ticks a couple more boxes. Kenta Bright and Uta Sakaguchi are also possibilities, but I feel that Bright doesn't offer the raw power of Ukai while Sakaguchi is only in high school. Kyosuke Kuroyanagi would be another popular pick from the Dragons backyard. Topping out at 151 km/h I think there's a chance he could go in the second round. Shinnosuke Haneda hasn't been strongly linked with the Dragons, but I think they will need to sign another left-hander. Haneda tops out at around 147 km/h but he throws from some heigh standing at 191cm. Yuma Yasuda has been linked with the team with fans speculating his bat would be better suited in the outfield so a conversion could be on the cards. Kaito Okamoto is another outfielder with power potential that has been hitting #3 in the line-up for Gifu Daiichi. Finally, another outfielder couldn't hurt given how bad our options are, and I thought a modest pick like Kento Nakamura might fill out things. This does however give us a glut of outfield options, but it might be worth it given the unreliability of Hirata and the fact we can't rely on Kosuke Fukudome to fill-in every other day again.

The best laid plans however mean that this probably won't even be close to what's selected however I think the team will strongly be thinking about that top 2. Either way, I've really just picked a class that adds a couple of arms and really beefs up the power hitting stocks of the team.

The team need a refresh. Tsuyoshi Yoda is looking more and more like a manager that will be out the door at the end of the season. His contract is up and the performances of the team have been once again underwhelming. Yoda however has been involved in the scouting meetings for the draft which is confusing should he be moved on, but either way, there's still a steep incline to success even if the Dragons pull off a decent draft to address key areas.

 

TRADE NEWS: Catcher Takuma Kato goes to the Marines, Outfielder Shohei Kato comes to the Dragons

 

With the end of the interleague, where the Dragons performed admirably to finish 4th overall, there has been quite a bit of movement on the the trade wire. The Dragons have jumped in on the action this time as well to bring 30 year-old outfielder Shohei Kato to Nagoya for  29 year-old catcher, Takuma "the Bazooka" Kato. A Kato for Kato trade. On the surface this appears to be another of those very even, low key trades that ever so often happen in Japanese baseball. So, without further ado, I would like to go into some of the key facets of this trade. One must keep in mind that this is not the kind of blockbuster, season changing trade that fans had hoped for and we shouldn't expect either player to revolutionise the way the teams play overnight

1. Both teams trade from an area of strength for an area of weakness

The Dragons have quite a wealth of catching talent. Takuya Kinoshita is the established presence behind the mask while Iori Katsura has proven to be an adequate back-up. Sprinkle in the other 5 catchers the Dragons have and the team have plenty to choose from. In recent history the team usually hold onto 7 catchers, so with Ayatsugu Yamashita's promotion to a full-time deal, this took the number to 8. Trading Kato, who hasn't really kicked on despite more or less being given the first-team job in 2019, makes sense for the Dragons who have quite a lot of depth in this area. Kato's lack of development but still impressive arm made him a good chip for a trade deal. 

On the Marines side, the team has a glut of good options in the outfield. This includes homerun leader Leonys Martin, Takashi Ogino, Katsuya Kakunaka, Kyota Fujiwara, Shuhei Fukuda and a host of others. Shohei Kato, despite his proclivity on the farm, didn't have a spot with the top team. Younger players had started to overtake him in the pecking order and other players of similar age were simply better established. 

On the other side, the Dragons lack of outfield options has been well publicized. Outside of Yohei Oshima, no outfielder has really covered been much better than replacement level. Similarly with the Marines, no catcher has really established themselves in the top team and those that have tried have been abysmal at hitting and throwing out runners. Takuma gives the Marines a boost behind the plate while Shohei could just about find a spot on the Dragons 1-gun bench from day one given how ordinary other options have been. 

2.  What kind of player is Shohei Kato? What can we expect?

Shohei Kato is a fleet-footed, switch-hitter with good defensive ability. For the Marines he has mostly played in either centre or right-field. For the Dragons, I would expect him to battle for the right-field position in the current team environment. 

Over the course of his career, Kato has never hit above a .700 OPS with the Marines top team and his career WAR over 8 seasons is about 1.3 including two 0.5 seasons. On the farm however is a much different story.  In the Eastern League this year, Kato has a .369/.586/.444 clip over 34 games including 4 homers. That's good reading. In 2020, Kato put up similar digits with a slash of .345/.460/.409 in 50 games while 2019 was a less impressive .275/.431/.319 in 31 games. Without getting into too much depth with statistical analysis in 2021 and 2020, Kato has been hitting the way you'd hope for a guy that wants to breakthrough to the first team. 

With farm statistics, we have to be careful as the Eastern League in particular has traditionally more hitter friendly parks than the Western League where the Dragons are based. Still, a 1.030 OPS is nothing to scoff at in either case.

What we can expect, is hopefully a solid contributor who, in another year, would probably be a 4th or 5th oufielder type for the team. If we think of the role that Atsushi Fujii has filled prior to 2019 I think we'd be getting close to understanding what we can expect from Kato. 

3. What does this do to the roster?

Not a whole lot right now. It bolsters outfield options, of which the Dragons have quite a few, albeit not great ones. However what it does do is make the futures of Shota Ono and Ariel Martinez quite interesting. Ono is aging and into the last year of his deal that originally brought him to the Dragons. Martinez meanwhile is having a hard time with injury and getting play time at his preferred position with a logjam of talented catchers in the Dragons system. Will either of them stay beyond 2021? This is a question the team will need to address. If Ariel decides to leave and Ono retires for example, suddenly the team need two more catchers to fill-in. This then may inform who they draft in 2021 as well. This makes calculations slightly tricky going forward but I guess it's a welcome issue. 

On the outfield side of things, Shohei Kato becomes outfielder #14. That's a lot of outfielders that all want game time. If you count Akira Neo, that's 15 guys that play in the outfield. Each of them have their own skills that they bring to the table, but the addition of Shohei probably endangers the likes of Issei Endo, Masataka Iryo and Masaru Watanabe who all play in that centre-right field role. Atsushi Fujii is quite likely to retire at the end of the year, while the team will probably want to re-shuffle it's options and pick-up one or two oufielders in the draft. This would mean that Endo and Watanabe are probaby in a little bit of danger. Watanabe is quite well rated but he hasn't performed up to expectation while Endo isn't doing enough in a situation where outfield spots are literally up for grabs.

Kato's addition gives some headaches going forward, but they're not necessarily unpleasant ones.

4. The Verdict

This is very balanced trade. The Dragons essentially get an outfielder that could potentially start on Thursday night. Kosuke Fukudome can't start everyday, Nobumasa Fukuda has been a bit iffy, Akira Neo probably needs time on the farm and others like Kaname Takino and Kengo Takeda haven't really shown a decent enough ability to hit. Kato gives a semi-reliable option in the outfield mix and allows players like Hironori Miyoshi, Kosuke Ito and Yuki Okabayashi time to mature on the farm. 

My initial knee jerk reaction to this trade was, what does Kato give us that Kengo Takeda doesn't? Takeda was brought in through a trade with Orix in 2019 where the Dragons sent Masato Matsui and Yusuke Matsui for Takeda and Takahiro Matsuba. Given time to reflect, Kato certainly seems a step above Takeda. Looking at farm statistics alone, Takeda's 2018 and 2019 (prior to the trade) were not particularly good hitting wise. Also, Takeda does not have the same kind of pace on the base-paths that Kato does either. Takeda's splits in the Western league were .282/.373/.325 (2018) and .216/.245/.273 (2017). While Takeda had a decent time with the Orix top team in 2017, his farm statistics don't inspire a high-ceiling narrative that Kato does. 

Overall, personally am a lot more optimistic about this trade than I was initially however, one should not think this will solve the Dragons hitting woes overnight. Kato is not a power-hitter and has not replicated his farm form with the Marines top team. I initially soured on the idea of the trade given that the media suggested that it would "improve the Dragons ability to get runs" which annoyed me. Looking at Kato's peripherals don't suggest a player that will regular get extra base hits. However, the closer I look now I see how Kato's role could develop over time with the team and how he fits in this year. 

A very Japanese trade it is and hopefully one that will be succesful for both sides.