First of all, I'd like to get into news that may appeal to fans of MLB teams who may be curious about what Shinnosuke Ogasawara is all about. My run-down has a very Dragons flavour to it, but I hope it gives a bit more understanding of the player.
MLB clubs will be given a quartet of Japanese starting options this off-season at different stages of their careers. Tomoyuki Sugano of the Giants, a Sawamura and MVP award winner, has declared international free agency, and at 35 years of age represents a "ride into the sunset" option that has veteran class but is certainly on the downturn. Ogasawara is a middle-of-the-road option that will cost posting money and represents a little bit more upside than Sugano but hasn't really had the accolades. While the Tigers have agreed to post Koyo Aoyagi, a 30-year-old groundballing sidewinder. The diamond of the quartet however will be Rōki Sasaki of the Chiba Lotte Marines who has been the focus of speculation for a move to the MLB for several years. Sasaki throws a 100mph fastball with a killer splitter and by far has the highest ceiling of the four. Unlike Ogasawara and Aoyagi, however, a posting fee isn't required for Sasaki with a much more even keel in international pool money required due to his age. This essentially gives Sasaki the same opportunity Shōhei Ōtani had to pick and choose his destination as monetary offers are all going to be in the ballpark of good enough.
Since joining the team in 2017, Martinez has steadily signed extensions usually in two or three-year bunches as his role has expanded. As of 2024 however, Martinez's three-year, ¥200,000,000 per year deal (about $1.35M USD) that he signed at the end of the 2021 season has expired. Unlike compatriot and former team-mate, Yariel Rodriguez, who signed with the Toronto Blue Jays last off-season, there does not appear to be even a suspicion of Martinez defecting. As such, the Japanese market is being explored with the DeNA Baystars, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks, and most recently, the Yomiuri Giants suggested as possible destinations. Latin baseball journalist, Francys Romero on Twitter/X has been the most cited source regarding these discussions having previously mentioned that Martinez was being tabled offers in the $8M-$10M per year range.
While Vosler is much older than Gerber, the stat lines here are very similar. The strikeout rate is perhaps the major difference where Vosler seems to be making more contact. Everything else is very similar down to the OPS. However, as has been my theme of late with OPS+, Vosler's numbers were marginally better in the 2024 PCL season than Gerber's in the 2019 PCL season. Gerber's 113 OPS+ is still good, but not as good as Vosler's 118 OPS+, a good 5% better than Gerber's season. Relative to the position they played, Gerber a sometime centre-fielder and Vosler a corner utility, these numbers are probably pretty comparable when considering overall value, but Vosler in this case seems to have the better bat. I'm also encouraged by the lower SO% which was a major concern for Gerber when he came to the Dragons. Vosler also comes to Japan fresh from an injury-free 2024 season whereas Gerber came into camp in Spring 2021 having not played any games in 2020. Vosler also comes with a more substantial MLB career, much more in the vane of Alex Dickerson than Gerber.
This likely looks like another signing sourced through Akinori Ōtsuka, but given the overlap between Alex Dickerson and Vosler in the Giants organisation, I wonder if there was a snowball scouting method used here, with Ōtsuka asking Dickerson about any former team-mates who might be interested in coming to Japan. Vosler and Dickerson were teammates at the Giants between AAA Sacramento and the Majors in 2021.
Ogasawara Stamped for MLB Posting
Some of the big news of the off-season is that of Shinnosuke Ogasawara's posting to the MLB. Ogasawara's potential move to the MLB however is an exciting prospect that fans haven't really had since Kenshin Kawakami moved to the Atlanta Braves in 2009 and Wei Yin Chen to the Orioles in 2012.
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| Is that a big bag of cash and appreciation? |
My job here however isn't to talk about Sugano, Aoyagi and Sasaki, but I hope that contextualises the market for Japanese starting pitchers. Ogasawara is a higher upside play than Sugano and Aoyagi and is more open to a move than Sasaki to a variety of teams. The posting fee however represents a barrier alongside the general starting pitching market for arms of his level.
Let's get into Ogasawara.
Dragons' 2015 1st round draft pick, Shinnosuke Ogasawara was granted to be posted to the Major leagues earlier this off-season after murmurs existed of this possibility for some time. Ogasawara spent time in the US during the off-season training alongside Cubs World Series winning closer, Aroldis Chapman. As Ogasawara seems to be one more year away from international free agency, this was the year for the Dragons to make a little money before he likely left on his own. If successful, Ogasawara will become only the second player to be posted by the Dragons after Akinori Ōtsuka in 2003 and only the 4th Japanese Dragon in history after Otsuka, Kosuke Fukudome and Kenshin Kawakami to play in the MLB.
There has been rumour of several MLB teams interested in his services, including the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays. The Angels are apparently very interested. Given Ogasawara's level compared to other free-agent starters, I am concerned a deal won't be reached before the posting deadline. Not many 4-5 starter types get cleared off the board early due to teams trying to look for pitchers with the highest amount of upside first. I feel it would take an FO who is a real fan of Ogasawara to make a move materialise. If the reports regarding the Angels are correct, then that might be the kind of team that would bring him on.
Ogasawara was one of two pitchers last year to pass the innings total to be considered for post-season awards on the Dragons alongside Hiroto Takahashi. I think it's worth being sceptical about Ogasawara as a potential major leaguer, but I would put him in that 4-5 starter range with a little bit of upside. I don't think he's the same calibre of pitcher as fellow lefties, Yusei Kikuchi and Shota Imanaga but he could still have an impact in the US. I'd like to go through some of his numbers and provide a little context and maybe some hope for his success in the US.
Ogasawara did not have a particularly good year but it wasn't a disaster either. a 3.12 ERA was above the league average of 2.88. Ogasawara similarly failed to strike out a lot of batters this year either with a minuscule 5.1 SO/9, somewhat down from his 7.5 in 2023 and 8.7 in 2022. The downward trend is of course concerning, however, I have long had my suspicions that Dragons coaches under Kazuyoshi Tatsunami had been promoting a pitch-to-contact approach. Hiroto Takahashi has been at another level and I don't think there's much argument at the moment that he has the higher ceiling of the two, however, Ogasawara's stuff is not getting Ks like his teammate. Ogasawara however looked like he was finally ditching the many injuries that plagued his career in the 2021-2022 seasons, but his ability to take strikeouts decreased significantly in 2023 and 2024. I think what this does go someway to suggesting is, that there is potential there is also the chance he may be on a decline. Given his age, however, I would bet on a bounce-back year in 2025.
Ogasawara had a good start to the year, with a 2.40 ERA up until the All-Star break. After the All-Star games, however, he had a much more inflated 4.63 ERA suggesting some tiring as the season trudged through the summer heat. His home and away splits are also a little alarming where he had a 2.23 ERA at Vantelin Dome but a 4.02 ERA elsewhere. Not a strange phenomenon for many Dragons starters in recent years. His 3.29 FIP suggests he was worse than his ERA is, suggesting some help from the Dragons' defence and the dome.
Ogasawara's performance showed both promise and areas for improvement. His home run suppression was notably strong, with an HR/9 of just 0.56, indicating his ability to keep the ball in the park. However, batters still managed a .270 average against him. One of his consistent strengths remained his control; he issued only 22 walks across 144 1/3 innings in 2024, demonstrating his precision.
Ogasawara's pitch arsenal reveals both limitations and potential. His fastball, which sits between 90-93 mph, was his primary pitch in 2024 (52% usage) but proved less effective, generating a mere 5.01% whiff rate and allowing a .315 batting average against. More promising were his secondary pitches: a rarely used forkball with a 21.74% whiff rate and a change-up at 14.29%. This suggests significant room for pitch-mix adjustment.
While Ogasawara's YouTube teasing has left fans in suspense, the potential of his move remains exciting. If he departs, the Dragons will need to strategically fill his rotation spot. Interestingly, history shows that teams sometimes flourish after losing a key player - consider the Carp after Maeda or the Baystars following Imanaga's departure.
What are the impacts on the Dragons' rotation ahead of 2025? Ogasawara is one less reliable arm that the team can lean on throughout the year. The additions of Seiya Yoshida and Yumeto Kanemaru in the 2024 Draft will lessen the blow for the team, but I don't necessarily expect either rookie to cover for the 140+ innings that Ogasawara provides. The return of Yudai Ono plus some combination of Kanemaru and Yoshida throughout the year might be enough. There are also additional rumours the team is chasing some Dominican Winter League arms to bolster the rotation. Between Ono, Yoshida, Kanemaru, Matsuba and Toshiya Okada (who appears to be preparing to start in 2025), the team has just about enough lefty options for the opening-day rotation, but if Ogasawara were to stay, then the floor of that rotation is of course much higher.
My prediction remains that Ogasawara will ultimately make his move to MLB, eventually. The timeline of the posting system and his relative ability make me sceptical that something will materialise, but the MLB market seems to be moving relatively quickly this off-season, so there may still be interest. The posting deadline is the 15th of December and Ogasawara will have 45 days to negotiate with a team. So, watch this space. We have until the 29th of January 2025 to know what his future will be.
On a more personal note, I want to comment on Ogasawara the person. Ogasawara has really come out of his shell as he's aged. While relatively serious business as an 18-year-old trying to impress when he first joined the organisation, Ogasawara has become one of the faces of the team. For the last three or so years, he has been the team representative on the yearly "Pro Baseball players Spill the Truth Job Tune" variety show and has otherwise been a bright light in an otherwise all-work and no-play Dragons organisation. He has developed a good sense of humour. On the show, he admitted to not having a love interest for which he was grilled and encouraged to confess his love for the co-hosting actress as practice. While dramatic, Ogasawara was unfortunately turned down, but his ability to appreciate self-deprecating humour has been ingratiating.
In the end, Ogasawara is likely only a year or so away from international free agency, he will make the move in the future, even if it isn't this off-season.
Of course, the lefty from Fujisawa isn't the only Dragon facing a potentially transformative off-season. Star closer Raidel Martinez also finds himself at a career crossroads.
Raidel to ride off?
The other big news about possible incomings and departures is that of star closer Raidel Martinez. The 100 mp/h slinging Cuban righty has been indomitable at the back of the Dragons bullpen since he was installed as closer in the 2020 season capturing two save titles and making four All-Star appearances.
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| Dat strikeout. |
Manager, Kazuki Inoue has pulled out all stops to try and keep Martinez in Nagoya sitting down with the pitcher to map out his strong desire for him to stay, the front office has apparently tabled a multi-year deal that would multiply his current earnings. Whether or not this is a competitive offer next to what the Giants, Baystars and Hawks can table, is yet to be seen, but historically this has not been the case. If initial reports of a deal with an AAV of $8M-$10M are remotely true, this would be more than double the highest salary the Dragons have ever given out, and that was to star closer Hitoki Iwase who received a 4-year ¥430,000,00 AAV deal in 2007. Martinez has expressed a desire to stay with the Dragons saying "I feel really comfortable with the team. I don't really want to leave the Dragons, but it's not a situation where I can say I can be back."
I think the subtext here is that the Cuban Ministry of Sports have a significant say on where Martinez goes but it could also indicate that salary will be a major driver for his next move.
Martinez came to the Dragons in the first batch of Cuban players exported to the Dragons through the Cuban Ministry of Sports in 2017. At the time, Martinez arrived alongside countryman and outfielder Leon Urgelles. Originally tested as a starter under Shigekazu Mori, the team quickly found a role for him in the bullpen during Tsuyoshi Yoda's first year in charge in 2019. Following injury and form slumps to closer Shinji Tajima and the retirement of Hitoki Iwase, Martinez was entrusted with closing out games not too long after. Despite not having a great team around him, Martinez established himself as the premier closer in the Central League. In 2020, Martinez became part of the indomitable "Daifukumaru" trio alongside Daisuke Sobue and Hiroto Fuku with a 1.13 ERA. He would capture his first save title with 39 in 2022, and of course finished 2024 with the same title with a career high 43 saves, the second most by a Dragons closer. Martinez finished the 2024 season with 166 saves as a Dragon putting him 2nd on the team's all-time list surpassing Kuo Yuen-chih (116) in 2023.
On 30 November, it was revealed that Martinez had officially become a free agent. Players like Koji Fukutani, who is still exploring the market, and Ogasawara who is pending posting, remained on the list of Dragons players ahead of the 2025 season, at least for the time being. Martinez leaving this list, is one more nail in the coffin for his possible retention with the team.
Of course, there will need to be a reshuffle of the bullpen with the closer leaving. Shinya Matsuyama has already been suggested to be Martinez's replacement as the team's stopper. With Matsuyama moving up in the bullpen hierarchy, this means that theoretically, one more arm needs to stand up. At present, Tatsuya Shimizu, Yuki Hashimoto, Kōki Saitō and Kento Fujishima are the most likely to be the main four set-uppers based on 2024's results. There has however been mention that the team may be interested in Baystars' former reliever, J. B. Wendelken who was released by the Yokohama outfit this off-season despite a sub 2.00 ERA. I would certainly be open to bringing him in. The upside is still there and the Dragons have reasonable cover if injuries get the better of him like last year. It would also give new recruit Jason Vosler an American compatriot in the team, which was rumoured to be an issue for Alex Dickerson as he struggled to adjust to living in Japan. The potential move of Martinez in addition to the potential earnings made through Ogasawara's posting should allow the team to submit a financially competitive bid. (I will be following up later this year when player contracts have been finalised as to how much is being spent)
While it looks likely that Martinez will be in a different uniform in 2025, the Dragons are still in a good position to have a very good bullpen ahead of Inoue's inaugural year as manager.
As the Dragons contemplate potential roster changes in their pitching staff, they've also been active in addressing offensive needs
Jason Vosler to jet in
In late November it was made slip that the Dragons had an agreement in principle with Seattle Mariners AAA veteran, Jason Vosler and confirmed a few days later by MLB Trade Rumors. Vosler played a few games with the Mariners last year but had the majority of his time in the majors with the San Francisco Giants. The 31-year-old approaches the plate from the left-hand side while he can field in any of the corners. Given his positional flexibility, relatively low cost and potential upside, this seems like a smart enough signing. Vosler hit 31 homers at a 118 OPS+ in AAA last year but had an okayish 25% strikeout rate.
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| Pack your bags, its off to NPB. |
What can we expect? The mind recalls Mike Gerber, brought in by Alonzo Powell and Tsuyoshi Yoda who similarly had a good record in AAA but failed to make much of an impact in NPB. Unfortunately, Gerber had COVID-19 take away a year of game time from him, so maybe it isn't a fair comparison as Vosler played 129 games between AAA and the Majors in 2024. However a slightly more in-depth look at the stat line of both players the year before they came/will come to Japan reveals Vosler to be the slightly more polished of the two. Both played in the Pacific Coast League, Gerber for Sacramento and Vosler for Tacoma with the league average OPS being about 32 points lower in 2019 than in 2024. Let's have a quick look at each individual stat line:
| Player | Year | G | PA | AB | H | 2B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerber | 2019 | 119 | 513 | 464 | 143 | 41 | 26 | 83 | 39 | 140 | 0.308 | 0.937 |
| Vosler | 2024 | 119 | 524 | 466 | 141 | 25 | 31 | 110 | 46 | 113 | 0.303 | 0.944 |
While Vosler is much older than Gerber, the stat lines here are very similar. The strikeout rate is perhaps the major difference where Vosler seems to be making more contact. Everything else is very similar down to the OPS. However, as has been my theme of late with OPS+, Vosler's numbers were marginally better in the 2024 PCL season than Gerber's in the 2019 PCL season. Gerber's 113 OPS+ is still good, but not as good as Vosler's 118 OPS+, a good 5% better than Gerber's season. Relative to the position they played, Gerber a sometime centre-fielder and Vosler a corner utility, these numbers are probably pretty comparable when considering overall value, but Vosler in this case seems to have the better bat. I'm also encouraged by the lower SO% which was a major concern for Gerber when he came to the Dragons. Vosler also comes to Japan fresh from an injury-free 2024 season whereas Gerber came into camp in Spring 2021 having not played any games in 2020. Vosler also comes with a more substantial MLB career, much more in the vane of Alex Dickerson than Gerber.
This likely looks like another signing sourced through Akinori Ōtsuka, but given the overlap between Alex Dickerson and Vosler in the Giants organisation, I wonder if there was a snowball scouting method used here, with Ōtsuka asking Dickerson about any former team-mates who might be interested in coming to Japan. Vosler and Dickerson were teammates at the Giants between AAA Sacramento and the Majors in 2021.
Vosler's left-handed corner bat with extra base potential is exactly the kind of player the Dragons were looking for, and I would argue have needed for the last few years. The fact that he has positional flexibility is just icing on the cake. I have been asking for a left-handed corner outfield bat with pop for a few years now, and I'm glad the Dragons have found someone with potential, however at 31 there is a risk he will be nothing and struggle to adapt. Let us however roll the visa player roulette once more. At the very least, this is a better fit than many other hitters that have come in. Dickerson potentially also filled that role, but injuries unfortunately derailed his tenure in Japan. However, Vosler is younger than Dickerson and has most recently been playing at a higher level. Let's hope these are good omens.
Since taking over, Inoue has stressed defensive flexibility, expecting his players to be able to defend at least two positions. Vosler further fits this mould. I think there is also a chance he could be used as a platoon with Shō Nakata or Seiya Hosokawa at first base, while he could certainly see time in the outfield, maybe in a platoon situation with Orlando Calixte in left field. From a line-up mix, a left-handed slugger was something that was missing. The Dragons I think can be happy with this capture. My only hope is that Vosler stays healthy and performs to even an average standard. Even a 100 OPS+ first baseman would go a long way to improving this offence.
My bar for a first-baseman or an international slugger is that of Matt Clark. An American who played one season in Nagoya under Morimichi Takagi in 2013. He was solid and, I'd say, fairly underrated, particularly given the quality of some of the players that have followed in the last decade. A Matt Clark-esque season (which was 112 OPS+) would be great.
The Dragons roster is getting yet another shake-up. With the active player draft also on the horizon, there will likely be at least one more move before the year end. Once again, let's get our hopes up that the team have the right mix of players to make a difference next season. There's still a chance that other international signings and trades may be made before the opening day, but so far we can be encouraged by the moves that have been made.
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