Hi all, I posted this on /r/npb but thought I might as well repost it here. I wanted to gush over Shinya Matsuyama.
The Dragons have actually looked like they're some sort of alive for the first time in about 5 years, but one storyline I have been following closely is that of Shinya Matsuyama.
Not since 2015 have we seen two ore more closers at 40+ saves in the same year. And it is only the 3rd time in the history of NPB.
I (somewhat proudly) identified Matsuyama as someone to watch out for when he was first drafted. His delivery and poise on the mound screamed high-end closer and it has been a wonder to see him bloom to equal Kyuji Fujikawa and Hitoki Iwase's Central League single season save record (46) in only his second full season. My praise has been so effusive of Matsuyama's leviathan efforts that I have missed the equally impressive season of Raidel Martinez, Matsuyama's predecessor, who is snapping at his heels with 45 saves for the season going into the last two games against, you guessed it, the Dragons. The final two games could see a complete reset of the Central League saves record by either Martinez or Matsuyama.
As we head into this last series, I wanted to revisit some of the former saves leaders and contextualise how good a season these two are having.
Martinez has, of course, shown pedigree already, notching a 43-save season only last year with the Dragons, but what made that season all the more impressive was it was the first time that a player from a B-Class team had reached the 40+ save mark. Shinya Matsuyama will be the second. There are only four save leaders with 40+ saves who played for a team that did not finish in the top two, namely the aforementioned two and the Hanshin duo of Kyuji Fujikawa (46, 2007) and Seung-Hwan Oh (41, 2015). Every other save leader with 40+ saves has played for a pennant winner or the runner-up, and that includes legendary closer Hitoki Iwase. Iwase had 5 x 40+ save seasons, but never on a sub-par team.
But, league position doesn't mean everything. What about conversion rate? What pitcher reliever can you put on the mound and just expect to close out a game? Well, the top 5 is a little interesting. Keep in mind I'm just looking at appearances and saves, not necessarily save opportunities, but Kazuhiro Sasaki (1998) is the most efficient at 88% conversion rate. However, just behind him is Shinya Matsuyama (2025) who currently possesses an 87% conversion rate. The drop-off is a little sharper after that with Dennis Sarfate (2017, 82%), Raidel Martinez (2025, 79%), and Hitoki Iwase (2010, 78%) rounding out the top 5. Granted, there is room for statistical error here, as pitchers who play for good run-scoring teams might just get run-outs in non-save opportunities to keep them warm during the season.
One last data point I want to raise is the strikeout rate. Hitoki Iwase's greatest weapon as a closer was a sharp turning slider that he threw a great majority of the time. A slider is going to induce many ground ball outs, and when you have a defensive infield alignment of golden glovers like Hirokazu Ibata, Masahiro Araki and Masahiko Morino, getting outs is somewhat easier with that configuration. Iwase never had a SO/9 over 8.0. What about the field?
Dennis Sarfate (2017) leads the 40+ club with a 14.2 SO/9 in 2015. with a similar season in 2017 at 13.9 SO/9. Kyuji Fujikawa also has two of the top 7 seasons in SO/9, while Marc Croon and Kazuhiro Sasaki round out the top 6. Shinya Matsyuama slots in currently at #7 on the SO/9 leaderboard at 12.2 SO/9. Only Matsuyama and Raidel Martinez have a 10+ SO/9 for a 40+ save season in the 2020s. Robert Suarez is the only other pitcher to hit 40 saves in the last 5 years, but his SO/9 was a more modest 8.4.
What Matsuyama and Martinez are doing this season as closers is history in the making and it is only bonafide legends and Marc Croon that stand above them in the categories I've highlighted. Out of the pitchers with a 40+ save season in NPB, it is only Iwase, Martinez, Matsuyama and Kentaro Nishimura (lol) that don't have MLB experience. That certainly has to be a sign.
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