Pacific Passages: Ogasawara's MLB leap, Martinez's exit, Vosler's arrival

The Dragons are facing some notable changes this off-season, with potential shifts in both their pitching rotation and bullpen. Two key players potentially departing: starting pitcher Shinnosuke Ogasawara, who has been posted to the Major Leagues, and star closer Raidel Martinez, who has become a free agent after six seasons with the team. The team will also welcome a new veteran from across the Pacific in American Jason Vosler.

First of all, I'd like to get into news that may appeal to fans of MLB teams who may be curious about what Shinnosuke Ogasawara is all about. My run-down has a very Dragons flavour to it, but I hope it gives a bit more understanding of the player.

Ogasawara Stamped for MLB Posting

Some of the big news of the off-season is that of Shinnosuke Ogasawara's posting to the MLB. Ogasawara's potential move to the MLB however is an exciting prospect that fans haven't really had since Kenshin Kawakami moved to the Atlanta Braves in 2009 and Wei Yin Chen to the Orioles in 2012. 

Is that a big bag of cash and appreciation?

MLB clubs will be given a quartet of Japanese starting options this off-season at different stages of their careers. Tomoyuki Sugano of the Giants, a Sawamura and MVP award winner, has declared international free agency, and at 35 years of age represents a "ride into the sunset" option that has veteran class but is certainly on the downturn. Ogasawara is a middle-of-the-road option that will cost posting money and represents a little bit more upside than Sugano but hasn't really had the accolades. While the Tigers have agreed to post Koyo Aoyagi, a 30-year-old groundballing sidewinder. The diamond of the quartet however will be Rōki Sasaki of the Chiba Lotte Marines who has been the focus of speculation for a move to the MLB for several years. Sasaki throws a 100mph fastball with a killer splitter and by far has the highest ceiling of the four. Unlike Ogasawara and Aoyagi, however, a posting fee isn't required for Sasaki with a much more even keel in international pool money required due to his age. This essentially gives Sasaki the same opportunity Shōhei Ōtani had to pick and choose his destination as monetary offers are all going to be in the ballpark of good enough. 

My job here however isn't to talk about Sugano, Aoyagi and Sasaki, but I hope that contextualises the market for Japanese starting pitchers. Ogasawara is a higher upside play than Sugano and Aoyagi and is more open to a move than Sasaki to a variety of teams. The posting fee however represents a barrier alongside the general starting pitching market for arms of his level.

Let's get into Ogasawara.

Dragons' 2015 1st round draft pick, Shinnosuke Ogasawara was granted to be posted to the Major leagues earlier this off-season after murmurs existed of this possibility for some time. Ogasawara spent time in the US during the off-season training alongside Cubs World Series winning closer, Aroldis Chapman. As Ogasawara seems to be one more year away from international free agency, this was the year for the Dragons to make a little money before he likely left on his own. If successful, Ogasawara will become only the second player to be posted by the Dragons after Akinori Ōtsuka in 2003 and only the 4th Japanese Dragon in history after Otsuka, Kosuke Fukudome and Kenshin Kawakami to play in the MLB.

There has been rumour of several MLB teams interested in his services, including the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays. The Angels are apparently very interested. Given Ogasawara's level compared to other free-agent starters, I am concerned a deal won't be reached before the posting deadline. Not many 4-5 starter types get cleared off the board early due to teams trying to look for pitchers with the highest amount of upside first. I feel it would take an FO who is a real fan of Ogasawara to make a move materialise. If the reports regarding the Angels are correct, then that might be the kind of team that would bring him on.

Ogasawara was one of two pitchers last year to pass the innings total to be considered for post-season awards on the Dragons alongside Hiroto Takahashi. I think it's worth being sceptical about Ogasawara as a potential major leaguer, but I would put him in that 4-5 starter range with a little bit of upside. I don't think he's the same calibre of pitcher as fellow lefties, Yusei Kikuchi and Shota Imanaga but he could still have an impact in the US. I'd like to go through some of his numbers and provide a little context and maybe some hope for his success in the US. 

Ogasawara did not have a particularly good year but it wasn't a disaster either. a 3.12 ERA was above the league average of 2.88. Ogasawara similarly failed to strike out a lot of batters this year either with a minuscule 5.1 SO/9, somewhat down from his 7.5 in 2023 and 8.7 in 2022. The downward trend is of course concerning, however, I have long had my suspicions that Dragons coaches under Kazuyoshi Tatsunami had been promoting a pitch-to-contact approach. Hiroto Takahashi has been at another level and I don't think there's much argument at the moment that he has the higher ceiling of the two, however, Ogasawara's stuff is not getting Ks like his teammate. Ogasawara however looked like he was finally ditching the many injuries that plagued his career in the 2021-2022 seasons, but his ability to take strikeouts decreased significantly in 2023 and 2024. I think what this does go someway to suggesting is, that there is potential there is also the chance he may be on a decline. Given his age, however, I would bet on a bounce-back year in 2025.

Ogasawara had a good start to the year, with a 2.40 ERA up until the All-Star break. After the All-Star games, however, he had a much more inflated 4.63 ERA suggesting some tiring as the season trudged through the summer heat. His home and away splits are also a little alarming where he had a 2.23 ERA at Vantelin Dome but a 4.02 ERA elsewhere. Not a strange phenomenon for many Dragons starters in recent years. His 3.29 FIP suggests he was worse than his ERA is, suggesting some help from the Dragons' defence and the dome.

Ogasawara's performance showed both promise and areas for improvement. His home run suppression was notably strong, with an HR/9 of just 0.56, indicating his ability to keep the ball in the park. However, batters still managed a .270 average against him. One of his consistent strengths remained his control; he issued only 22 walks across 144 1/3 innings in 2024, demonstrating his precision.

Ogasawara's pitch arsenal reveals both limitations and potential. His fastball, which sits between 90-93 mph, was his primary pitch in 2024 (52% usage) but proved less effective, generating a mere 5.01% whiff rate and allowing a .315 batting average against. More promising were his secondary pitches: a rarely used forkball with a 21.74% whiff rate and a change-up at 14.29%. This suggests significant room for pitch-mix adjustment.

While Ogasawara's YouTube teasing has left fans in suspense, the potential of his move remains exciting. If he departs, the Dragons will need to strategically fill his rotation spot. Interestingly, history shows that teams sometimes flourish after losing a key player - consider the Carp after Maeda or the Baystars following Imanaga's departure.

What are the impacts on the Dragons' rotation ahead of 2025? Ogasawara is one less reliable arm that the team can lean on throughout the year. The additions of Seiya Yoshida and Yumeto Kanemaru in the 2024 Draft will lessen the blow for the team, but I don't necessarily expect either rookie to cover for the 140+ innings that Ogasawara provides. The return of Yudai Ono plus some combination of Kanemaru and Yoshida throughout the year might be enough. There are also additional rumours the team is chasing some Dominican Winter League arms to bolster the rotation. Between Ono, Yoshida, Kanemaru, Matsuba and Toshiya Okada (who appears to be preparing to start in 2025), the team has just about enough lefty options for the opening-day rotation, but if Ogasawara were to stay, then the floor of that rotation is of course much higher.

My prediction remains that Ogasawara will ultimately make his move to MLB, eventually. The timeline of the posting system and his relative ability make me sceptical that something will materialise, but the MLB market seems to be moving relatively quickly this off-season, so there may still be interest. The posting deadline is the 15th of December and Ogasawara will have 45 days to negotiate with a team. So, watch this space. We have until the 29th of January 2025 to know what his future will be. 

On a more personal note, I want to comment on Ogasawara the person. Ogasawara has really come out of his shell as he's aged. While relatively serious business as an 18-year-old trying to impress when he first joined the organisation, Ogasawara has become one of the faces of the team. For the last three or so years, he has been the team representative on the yearly "Pro Baseball players Spill the Truth Job Tune" variety show and has otherwise been a bright light in an otherwise all-work and no-play Dragons organisation. He has developed a good sense of humour. On the show, he admitted to not having a love interest for which he was grilled and encouraged to confess his love for the co-hosting actress as practice. While dramatic, Ogasawara was unfortunately turned down, but his ability to appreciate self-deprecating humour has been ingratiating. 

In the end, Ogasawara is likely only a year or so away from international free agency, he will make the move in the future, even if it isn't this off-season. 

Of course, the lefty from Fujisawa isn't the only Dragon facing a potentially transformative off-season. Star closer Raidel Martinez also finds himself at a career crossroads.

Raidel to ride off?

The other big news about possible incomings and departures is that of star closer Raidel Martinez. The 100 mp/h slinging Cuban righty has been indomitable at the back of the Dragons bullpen since he was installed as closer in the 2020 season capturing two save titles and making four All-Star appearances.

Dat strikeout.

Since joining the team in 2017, Martinez has steadily signed extensions usually in two or three-year bunches as his role has expanded. As of 2024 however, Martinez's three-year, ¥200,000,000 per year deal (about $1.35M USD) that he signed at the end of the 2021 season has expired. Unlike compatriot and former team-mate, Yariel Rodriguez, who signed with the Toronto Blue Jays last off-season, there does not appear to be even a suspicion of Martinez defecting. As such, the Japanese market is being explored with the DeNA Baystars, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks, and most recently, the Yomiuri Giants suggested as possible destinations. Latin baseball journalist, Francys Romero on Twitter/X has been the most cited source regarding these discussions having previously mentioned that Martinez was being tabled offers in the $8M-$10M per year range. 

 Manager, Kazuki Inoue has pulled out all stops to try and keep Martinez in Nagoya sitting down with the pitcher to map out his strong desire for him to stay, the front office has apparently tabled a multi-year deal that would multiply his current earnings. Whether or not this is a competitive offer next to what the Giants, Baystars and Hawks can table, is yet to be seen, but historically this has not been the case. If initial reports of a deal with an AAV of $8M-$10M are remotely true, this would be more than double the highest salary the Dragons have ever given out, and that was to star closer Hitoki Iwase who received a 4-year ¥430,000,00 AAV deal in 2007. Martinez has expressed a desire to stay with the Dragons saying "I feel really comfortable with the team. I don't really want to leave the Dragons, but it's not a situation where I can say I can be back."

I think the subtext here is that the Cuban Ministry of Sports have a significant say on where Martinez goes but it could also indicate that salary will be a major driver for his next move.

Martinez came to the Dragons in the first batch of Cuban players exported to the Dragons through the Cuban Ministry of Sports in 2017. At the time, Martinez arrived alongside countryman and outfielder Leon Urgelles. Originally tested as a starter under Shigekazu Mori, the team quickly found a role for him in the bullpen during Tsuyoshi Yoda's first year in charge in 2019. Following injury and form slumps to closer Shinji Tajima and the retirement of Hitoki Iwase, Martinez was entrusted with closing out games not too long after. Despite not having a great team around him, Martinez established himself as the premier closer in the Central League. In 2020, Martinez became part of the indomitable "Daifukumaru" trio alongside Daisuke Sobue and Hiroto Fuku with a 1.13 ERA. He would capture his first save title with 39 in 2022, and of course finished 2024 with the same title with a career high 43 saves, the second most by a Dragons closer. Martinez finished the 2024 season with 166 saves as a Dragon putting him 2nd on the team's all-time list surpassing Kuo Yuen-chih (116) in 2023.

On 30 November, it was revealed that Martinez had officially become a free agent. Players like Koji Fukutani, who is still exploring the market, and Ogasawara who is pending posting, remained on the list of Dragons players ahead of the 2025 season, at least for the time being. Martinez leaving this list, is one more nail in the coffin for his possible retention with the team. 

Of course, there will need to be a reshuffle of the bullpen with the closer leaving. Shinya Matsuyama has already been suggested to be Martinez's replacement as the team's stopper. With Matsuyama moving up in the bullpen hierarchy, this means that theoretically, one more arm needs to stand up. At present, Tatsuya Shimizu, Yuki Hashimoto, Kōki Saitō and Kento Fujishima are the most likely to be the main four set-uppers based on 2024's results. There has however been mention that the team may be interested in Baystars' former reliever, J. B. Wendelken who was released by the Yokohama outfit this off-season despite a sub 2.00 ERA. I would certainly be open to bringing him in. The upside is still there and the Dragons have reasonable cover if injuries get the better of him like last year. It would also give new recruit Jason Vosler an American compatriot in the team, which was rumoured to be an issue for Alex Dickerson as he struggled to adjust to living in Japan. The potential move of Martinez in addition to the potential earnings made through Ogasawara's posting should allow the team to submit a financially competitive bid. (I will be following up later this year when player contracts have been finalised as to how much is being spent)

While it looks likely that Martinez will be in a different uniform in 2025, the Dragons are still in a good position to have a very good bullpen ahead of Inoue's inaugural year as manager.

As the Dragons contemplate potential roster changes in their pitching staff, they've also been active in addressing offensive needs

Jason Vosler to jet in

In late November it was made slip that the Dragons had an agreement in principle with Seattle Mariners AAA veteran, Jason Vosler and confirmed a few days later by MLB Trade Rumors. Vosler played a few games with the Mariners last year but had the majority of his time in the majors with the San Francisco Giants. The 31-year-old approaches the plate from the left-hand side while he can field in any of the corners. Given his positional flexibility, relatively low cost and potential upside, this seems like a smart enough signing. Vosler hit 31 homers at a 118 OPS+ in AAA last year but had an okayish 25% strikeout rate. 

Pack your bags, its off to NPB.

What can we expect? The mind recalls Mike Gerber, brought in by Alonzo Powell and Tsuyoshi Yoda who similarly had a good record in AAA but failed to make much of an impact in NPB. Unfortunately, Gerber had COVID-19 take away a year of game time from him, so maybe it isn't a fair comparison as Vosler played 129 games between AAA and the Majors in 2024. However a slightly more in-depth look at the stat line of both players the year before they came/will come to Japan reveals Vosler to be the slightly more polished of the two. Both played in the Pacific Coast League, Gerber for Sacramento and Vosler for Tacoma with the league average OPS being about 32 points lower in 2019 than in 2024. Let's have a quick look at each individual stat line: 

Player	Year	G	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OPS
Gerber	2019	119	513	464	143	41	26	83	39	140	0.308	0.937
Vosler	2024	119	524	466	141	25	31	110	46	113	0.303	0.944

While Vosler is much older than Gerber, the stat lines here are very similar. The strikeout rate is perhaps the major difference where Vosler seems to be making more contact. Everything else is very similar down to the OPS. However, as has been my theme of late with OPS+, Vosler's numbers were marginally better in the 2024 PCL season than Gerber's in the 2019 PCL season. Gerber's 113 OPS+ is still good, but not as good as Vosler's 118 OPS+, a good 5% better than Gerber's season. Relative to the position they played, Gerber a sometime centre-fielder and Vosler a corner utility, these numbers are probably pretty comparable when considering overall value, but Vosler in this case seems to have the better bat. I'm also encouraged by the lower SO% which was a major concern for Gerber when he came to the Dragons. Vosler also comes to Japan fresh from an injury-free 2024 season whereas Gerber came into camp in Spring 2021 having not played any games in 2020. Vosler also comes with a more substantial MLB career, much more in the vane of Alex Dickerson than Gerber.

This likely looks like another signing sourced through Akinori Ōtsuka, but given the overlap between Alex Dickerson and Vosler in the Giants organisation, I wonder if there was a snowball scouting method used here, with Ōtsuka asking Dickerson about any former team-mates who might be interested in coming to Japan. Vosler and Dickerson were teammates at the Giants between AAA Sacramento and the Majors in 2021. 

Vosler's left-handed corner bat with extra base potential is exactly the kind of player the Dragons were looking for, and I would argue have needed for the last few years. The fact that he has positional flexibility is just icing on the cake. I have been asking for a left-handed corner outfield bat with pop for a few years now, and I'm glad the Dragons have found someone with potential, however at 31 there is a risk he will be nothing and struggle to adapt. Let us however roll the visa player roulette once more. At the very least, this is a better fit than many other hitters that have come in. Dickerson potentially also filled that role, but injuries unfortunately derailed his tenure in Japan. However, Vosler is younger than Dickerson and has most recently been playing at a higher level. Let's hope these are good omens. 

Since taking over, Inoue has stressed defensive flexibility, expecting his players to be able to defend at least two positions. Vosler further fits this mould. I think there is also a chance he could be used as a platoon with Shō Nakata or Seiya Hosokawa at first base, while he could certainly see time in the outfield, maybe in a platoon situation with Orlando Calixte in left field. From a line-up mix, a left-handed slugger was something that was missing. The Dragons I think can be happy with this capture. My only hope is that Vosler stays healthy and performs to even an average standard. Even a 100 OPS+ first baseman would go a long way to improving this offence. 

My bar for a first-baseman or an international slugger is that of Matt Clark. An American who played one season in Nagoya under Morimichi Takagi in 2013. He was solid and, I'd say, fairly underrated, particularly given the quality of some of the players that have followed in the last decade. A Matt Clark-esque season (which was 112 OPS+) would be great. 

The Dragons roster is getting yet another shake-up. With the active player draft also on the horizon, there will likely be at least one more move before the year end. Once again, let's get our hopes up that the team have the right mix of players to make a difference next season. There's still a chance that other international signings and trades may be made before the opening day, but so far we can be encouraged by the moves that have been made.

Changing of the Guard: Fresh Perspectives in the Dragons' War Room

 Some news and moves for you hip-shakers out there. Inoue's backroom organisation has been decided and I'd like to go into a little bit to show you that this is more of a shakeup than just the names.

Backroom shenanigans

We knew about who was coming in late October when it was announced Nobuhiko Matsunaka, Shinichirō Koyama, Yūji Iiyama and Masaaki Koike among others were announced to be joining the coaching team. I speculated how they might fit in but it seems my predictions were only about half right. In this first season of Inoue there are some new titles for coaches we've not seem before indicating a different kind of organisation and hierarchy. Let's get into it and then run a rule over the appointments and their titles.

Firstly, a lot of coaches that were with the farm team at Nagoya ballpark have been promoted along with Inoue. Shota Ono, Yutaka Nakamura, Daisuke Yamai and the dreamboat himself, Takuya Asao will start the year in 1-gun. Yamai had a splash as pitching coach last season before he was replaced by Eiji Ochiai halfway through the year, Asao, Ono and Nakamura are new to their roles at Vantelin Dome. Another change is that of Akinori Otsuka moving to a roving/development role having previously been the first team bullpen coach. Masahiko Morino maintains a batting coach role but now has the additional tag of 'strategist' which may indicate he is in charge of helping hitters with their approach. Of the new faces, Nobuhiko Matsunaka is given the role of hitting coordinator, seemingly elevated above Morino, and looks likely to drive the hitting coaching and philosophy on the top side. Yūji Iiyama similarly gets a newly established role as position player coordinator which may see him help with defense, base-running and hitting. A utility as a player, this role seems to reflect the flexibility he had in his professional career. Naomichi Donoue is the other who maintains the role he took under Tatsunami. This will be his 2nd year as infield defense and baserunning coach. Yutaka Nakamura clearly has the trust of Inoue having worked with each other at the Tigers and the Dragons farm side last season. Nakamura theoretically must have had his contract renewed as he was a mainstay from year one of Tatsunami's management. 

My key point of interest is that there seems to now be a hierarchy established. I'm not entirely sure why Asao wasn't just given the role of "bullpen coach" if they were being specific with roles, but giving Matsunaka and Iiyama clearly defined coordinator roles, we may see fewer clashes between coaches which seems to have been a problem with Nori Nakamura (his 'Killing in the Name' approach didn't endear him to Tatsunami) in the last regime. Morino being given a strategist role also clearly delineates responsibility which may end up being more effective than the nebulous 'hitting coach' role that the organisation has traditionally used. This may lead to better communication channels within the organisation and cut through some of the foggy seniority between coaches and players leading to more clear-cut decision-making. The Japanese baseball world is a tricky place to navigate when it comes to social order. Whether that be senior-junior relationships from school or university, old teams, age or even the deference just shown to really good players, creating professional distance or at least some kind of line about who's in charge, I think makes sense in keeping people in the right space. In saying that, this will make or break Matsunaka's coaching career. If it goes right he'll be given the credit and if it goes wrong, he will take the fall.

One interesting part of this staff is Akinori Otsuka's roving role. The Dragons have had roving instructors previously with Alonzo Powell and Mitsuo Tateishi having free reign under Tsuyoshi Yoda,  but it may well be that Inoue sees a benefit in keeping Otsuka around the team generally as an instructor rather than as a locked-in coach. Otsuka was largely credited with helping Koki Saito find his form and has also been praised for the tweaks he has offered other pitchers. Theoretically, this ability to offer help to those who need it rather than be stuck with the doldrums of bullpen management and the like may benefit Otsuka and the team.

On the pitching side, I'd expect Yamai to be Inoue right-hand man when it comes to starting pitching and management, with Asao more likely taking on a bullpen coach kind of role.

Overall, I think the 1-gun coaching team certainly shows potential. New faces in tuned roles may be the answer to unlocking more wins.

Now, onto the second team, similarly a lot of new and old but given the promotions to the top team, I feel the farm backroom has been given a good freshen up that will hopefully go a long way to bettering a Dragons development pathway. 

The new additions are Masaaki Koike as hitting coordinator, a new pitching duo of Shinichirō Koyama as coordinator and the freshly retired Shinji Tajima with him. Ryōsuke Hirata takes on the outfield defense and base-running role while Kohei Oda drops back to the farm in a familiar battery coach role. Yutō Morikoshi maintains his appointment as infield defense and base-running coach while Masato Kobayashi joins in a development-pitching coach role alongside fellow developmental specialist and position player coordinator, Hiroyuki Watanabe. Finally, Nobumasa Fukuda returns in his role as farm hitting coach. 

Here the coordinator roles once again pique interest. Koyama effectively being the head pitching coach given his experience with the Eagles is not surprising. Koyama bounced between pitching coach roles over the last 8-years with Rakuten following his retirement in 2015. Having shared the role with Tsuyoshi Yoda at times, there is an interesting flavour there that might align with Yoda's philosophies as well. Enticing Koike to join the Dragons after a long sting with the Baystars may have been sweetened by a similar role. Koike had a professional career between the Baystars and the Dragons before spending the last decade in the Baystars backroom. It is good to see that the farm is littered with a good mix of experienced coaches who have had success at other organisations with younger, former Dragons players now coaches. Having Tajima and Fukuda in supporting roles may be of some benefit to them in their development as well as take the 'jump in the deep end' kind of organisation they were previously engaged with. The more I consider it, the more I like the farm coaching staff on paper. Now it's up to their individual coaching nous and ability to come together as a team under Eiji Ochiai. Ochiai also comes to the role not inexperienced having previously managed the Samsung Tigers farm team in the KBO.

Between the two teams, I think Inoue has struck a decent balance of outside and inside knowledge. The added layer of organisational change has more clearly defined what each coach is responsible for hopefully giving additional focus for each coach. I also feel Inoue is likely to put more faith in his coaches than Tatsunami. And may take a similar approach to his former manager, Hiromitsu Ochiai in entrusting coaches to do the jobs they were employed to do and allow the specialists to specialise. The other minor point of interest is that between Inoue, Matsunaka, Morino and Iiyama there isn't a right-handed batting coach in the 1-gun team. On the farm, however, both Koike and Fukuda were right-handed hitters. Even Hirata and Watanabe pulled to left field during their careers too. I believe that a good coach should be able to teach either regardless, but it does break with the traditional make-up of the hitting coach teams of the past such as Wada and Morino last year. All pitching coaches are right-handed as well but I think Otsuka proved with Saito that you can still be a good instructor without sharing the same handedness.

Personality-wise, I think there are a lot of good light-hearted people. Matsunaka and Koike seem like hardmen in a way, but both have expressed their want to communicate with players, a keyword at most of the press conferences.

Some other interesting notes, the 2025 farm staff is completely different to the team unveiled by Tatsunami at the beginning of tenure aside from Oda and Watanabe. Toshio Haru was the only farm hitting coach in 2023 while Takashi Ogasawara (now with Softbank), Yamai and Asao took over the pitching. The manager obviously changed to Ochiai from, at the time, Atsushi Kataoka. Morikoshi, and Fukuda were appointed a year or two into Tatsunami's reign. It will be fascinating to see what this new coaching group can do on the farm in particular. Their ability to be instructors to help players develop could play a key role in the Dragons' farm continuing to putter along as it did under Inoue last season.

Finally, for fun, how did I go with my predictions? I went 5/9 with the 1-gun team. Otsuka did not end up being the head coach while Koyama was appointed to the farm with Morino maintaining his hitting coach role was a little bit surprising. I mentioned in my article that many of the appointments could go either way, so it's perhaps not all that surprising in the end. On the farm then, I'm 6/10. If I had 4 wrong with 1-gun I have to have just as many wrong on the farm. I'll take the over 50% success! 11/19 overall. 

My friends, it is the off-season so that means we can go back to choofing on that hopium that next year will be a better year. We can at least take solace in knowing that change is afoot. Will it bring the wins that fans crave? That is still yet to be seen, but for now, let's enjoy the optimism that comes with a fresh perspective and a fresh change.

Central League 2024 in Review: OPS+ Leaders and Losers

As the season has ended and we're into the off-season, I wanted to follow-up on my article that examined OPS+ a few months ago. I specifically wanted to know if the production for the middle infield for the Dragons had improved, and I had found encouraging signs. I also had a look at the OPS+ leaders for the Dragons and I also examined the production currently generated at second base and short-stop in the Central League. Today, I'm going to do an expanded look into OPS+. I will rank production by position of all the six teams. The hope is for this to be a look at what it took to be considered productive in the 2024 hitting environment adjusted for position. There are some issues here however, I found with the Giants in particular nailing down a left, right and centre fielder became quite tricky, Hiroshima similarly had quite a bit going on at catcher and first-base, so I have had to simplify this for the sake of analysis and saving time. I've done my best to select the player with most plate appearances at each position per team and if there is a split situation, or close to it, I've tried to average something out. In the case of the Tigers at catcher for example, the difference between Umeno and Sakamoto regarding OPS was minimal, so I just looked at Umeno, who had more plate appearances. 

For those unfamiliar, OPS is regarded as one of the better ways to correlate run production. It combines getting on base (OBP) and hitting extra bases (SLG). These two abilities combined, correlate the closest to creating runs. OPS+ is weighting this statistic against the league average. A score of 100 is considered average while a score of 95 for example would be 5% below average. A score of 120 would be 20% above average and so on. Understanding how a hitter stacks up against the average allows us to get a better sense of how good they were in eras where to ball flys a lot or not much at all. 20 homeruns may not look impressive on paper, but in context, in a low offensive environment, it becomes all the more impressive. Essentially you want your player to be at 100 or better as a starting point. However, the level of acceptable offense for a position is often different, hence why I want to look at OPS+ position by position. A 110 OPS+ might be pretty bad for a first-baseman, but extremely good for a short-stop. 95 might be acceptable for a catcher, but terrible for a left-fielder. I have been able to average out the OPS of at each position in the Central League for starters at those positions. This does not take into account players that were subbed in or moved in-game. It is also worth keeping in mind, if you have a team full of 100 OPS+ hitters, you will likely be pretty middle of the pack offense wise. Ideally, you want players that have an above average OPS+ at their respective positions.

The plan for this post is to first look at how each team did per position, then I will give a run-down of the best 9 and the worst 9 based on these findings. Then, I will give you a top 10 of hitters in the Central League.

To kick things off,  Central League OPS average this season was 0.645, 23 points lower than last season. Given the increasingly difficult hitting environment, contextualising statistics is even more important. You can still be an amazing player just perhaps not in the way that jumps off the traditional stats page.

First of all, let's look at catcher.

The average OPS+ for catchers was about 94. Shogo Sakakura has been lauded as one of the best, hitting catchers in the league, and this supports it. The Carp's troubles with production at first-base saw him sharing time with Shota Dobayashi with Tsubasa Aizawa seeing time behind the plate as well. Given Sakakura has the highest share of appearances at catcher for the Carp, I've kept him here. In a more traditional catcher role however, Yudai Yamamoto of the Baystars had a remarkable breakout year playing 108 games with a .291/.340/.383 slash. The most disappointing was the combination of Seishiro Sakamoto and Ryutaro Umeno of the Tigers, but with both being ostensibly defensive catchers, it does make some sense that they would not be great hitters however being 12% worse than the average catcher in the league, is something that ultimately hurt the Tigers offense this year.

        Unsurprisingly, the highest average production was found on the first base bag; 118 OPS+.

 First base contains the best hitter in the league, that being Tyler Austin of the Baystars. He was a monster in leading the 'Stars to their Japan Series victory. Austin had a .316/.382/.601 slash over 106 games popping 25 home runs and 34 doubles. Squeezing out any kind of offense from first base proved to be a challenge for the Carp however with Shota Dobayashi having the greatest share of opportunities for Hiroshima but only mustering a measly 89 OPS+. Not many teams however got the greatest production out of first-base this year with only Austin and Kazuma Okamoto of the Giants being above average. Osuna of the Swallows and Oyama of the Tigers were not too far off though, but both fell 5-6% below league average. I think the sheer quality of Okamoto and Austin really pushed the bar quite high here. 

Second base had the third-lowest average production across the league at an average 100 OPS+. 

Shugo Maki of the Baystars was a cut above the rest. While not as defensively able as his second-base peers, Maki has one of the biggest bats in the Central League. Not too far behind his team-mate Austin, Maki hit a .294/.346/.491 slash with 24 homers and 33 doubles. The slugging percentage was somewhat behind Austin, but Maki was 19% better than the next-best second baseman in the Giants' Naoki Yoshikawa. If you want a more rounded 2B, you might settle for Yoshikawa, but with a bat as good as Maki's you might as well put up with the defensive short-comings. The ninja, Mikiya Tanaka was the worst of the Central but somehow maintained a neutral value at the position for the Dragons compared to last year. Tanaka was unfortunately almost as bad with the bat as Maki was good with it. 

Third-base was perhaps surprisingly the second most productive position on average among Central League teams with the bar being set at 111 OPS+. It is however somewhat unsurprising that the perennial beast, Munetaka Murakami took out the honours here. Despite the Swallows being fairly unimpressive this year, Murakami kept his stock high with a league-leading 33 homers and .244/.379/.472 slash. Inner-circle hall-of-famer Hayato Sakamoto was however the worst of the league in his first season playing full-time at third-base. The almost 36-year-old is starting to show his age and put together a fairly poor season by his high standards. Other big numbers here by Toshiro Miyazaki of the Baystars and Hiroki Fukunaga of the Dragons put three of the top ten hitters at third base. 

Short-stop as a universal understanding is very high on the defensive spectrum where athleticism and the ability to defend the position will be valued higher than at other positions. This has proven the case in the Central League this year as well, as short had the equal lowest bar to clear with an average OPS+ of a little over 94. As per my mid-season review where Hideki Nagaoka led the standings, he does so again by the end of the year while Masaya Yano is possibly the most improved ending the year with a slightly above league-average OPS. Nagaoka played 143 games this year with a .288/.325/.368 slash. With a good glove and above-average offense, the Swallows have found a really good shortstop who at only 22 years of age, still has room to improve. Seiya Kinami was the worst of the Central falling 9% short of being average at the position. That drop in production in the middle infield may have had some bearing on where the Tigers ended up this season.

Into the outfield with centre-field first up. If we are to theorise that the defensive spectrum starts with short and catcher, then the next-up is likely going to be here. The production at this position is also third worst on average at 103 OPS+. The leader here was Elier Hernandez of the Giants. This was a difficult decision given Hernandez only had 240 plate appearances through the season, but his production at centre-field was clearly the highest with a .294/.346/.453 slash line where he popped 8 homers and 11 doubles. If I were to limit this to 300+ plate appearances, then the top would be Koji Chikamoto with his .285/.365/.363 slash. Chikamoto swiped 19 bags while hitting a few extra bases but perhaps most remarkable was his 68 walks, the second most in the league. For a contact hitter, this is quite impressive. It was not his best year, but it was still the best of the regular-regular centre-fielders. Yuki Okabayashi of the Dragons was conversely not at his best and it marks a worrying trend as his OPS has decreased each year since he became a regular in 2022. Back from an injury, there is still some room for optimism about improvement, but he was the worst of the regular centre fielders this season.

Right field had a semi-high bar as the third most productive position this year averaging 108 OPS+. The Dragons' Seiya Hosokawa led the category this year as he marked an improvement on his 2023 season. Hosokawa smacked 23 homers and 30 doubles on his way to a .292/.368/.478 slash showing his credentials as one of the top five hitters in the league. Hosokawa went from strength to strength this year outshining his .780 OPS in 2023. The Swallows had the worst production out of right-field this year with Domingo Santana seeing all of his time in left. Kazuya Maruyama was played in right the most this year and was largely very disappointing with the bat. 

If it weren't for Santana, the bar to clear for being average in left field this year would have been extremely low, surprising for what has traditionally been a place to put your worst or second-worst fielding bat. 106 OPS+ was the bar set this season with only Domingo Santana of the Swallows and Yoshihiro Maru of the Giants proving to be above average. Santana was once again one of the best hitters in the league with a .315/.399/.506 slash popping 17 homers and 29 doubles. Santana led the league in on-base percentage picking up 57 walks. The worst was unfortunately Orlando Calixte of the Dragons, who was a utility man for the majority of the season but ended up being the most often deployed left-fielder on the team. 

And now, for the bonus round. It what we all love to talk about PITCHERS WHO RAKE. This is more for fun than anything but I also crunched numbers on who's pitchers hit the best. Firstly, because the sample size is just so small, I've ranked by each team rather than by each hitter. 

As you can see, no one is getting great production out pitchers. the Tigers top things with a 44 OPS+. Collectively, 56% worse than the league average. The Dragons weren't too far behind at 42 while the Giants and Carp hit the average at 38. The least rakey pitchers belonged to the Swallows who were collectively 70% worse than the league average hitter. No wonder managers like to throw out pinch hitters. Who however raked the best in 2024? It was two Meji University alumni that topped the charts. 

Yuya Yanagi could almost get a spot at second base for the Dragons as he led the league with an 84 OPS+. His under-classman, Masato Morishita was the second best at 81 OPS+. Takahiro Matsuba of the Dragons was the next best at 65 while Inoue of the Giants rounds out the top 10. Given how small the sample is, it's hard to extrapolate anything but it is said that Yanagi does fancy himself as a hitter and this year's results shows that. However, if there was ever more evidence required for introducing the DH...just look at this. Apart from Yanagi and maybe Morishita there wasn't one player that even approached being good enough to swing the bat and even then, over 300 plate appearances, Yanagi and Morishita would unlikely be this good.

That is the state of the OPS+ leaders at each position. Perhaps unsurprisingly it's the Baystars with 8/9 hitters being above the watermark that set them apart. The league-winning Giants had 7/9 at this mark, while the Dragons only had 3 above-average hitting regulars in their line-up. In terms of just being a regular with an average OPS for the league, the Dragons had 6 hitters underneath 100 while the Tigers had four and the Carp had five. The Swallows and Giants similarly had three hitters below average while the Baystars entire line-up aside from their pitchers performed above average. Now for a bit of fun, let's have a look at a best nine and a worst nine. 

The Swallows somehow have three players in best nine  with Santana, Murakami and Nagaoka. The Baystars chip in  Maki and Austin. The Dragons and Giants contribute with Hosokawa and Hernandez while the Tigers pitching group props up the bottom of the line-up. The Carp put forward their catcher Shogo Sakakura.

The worst is well, woof. How many runs would this team actually score? The Dragons contribute three players here, perhaps not too surprising, while the Tigers have two in Kinami and Umeno. The Giants with Sakamoto and the Swallows with Maruyama and their pitching group round out the best-worst nine.

Let's now take a look at the leaders this year. I'm going to be a little unkind to the Giants in this case and not include Hernandez given all the other players on this list played 100+ games I don't think it's fair to to include him in a top 10 overall. Therefore, he will make way for Hanshin's Teruaki Sato.

The Carp are the only team not to have a hitter in the top ten with every other team bar the Giants fielding at least two. Perhaps unsurprisingly it is the Baystars with three players in the top 10 including, arguably the MVP of the season, Tyler Austin. The Carp's relative hitting strength came from their contribution as a group rather than any one individual whereas a team like the Dragons have two players in the top 10 hitters in the league, but were the worst team in the league and scored the fewest runs. It is worth saying that the Carp were worse than the Dragons overall where as a team they hit .239/.286/.315 to the Dragons .243/.293/.330. The Dragons hit more extra bases, took more walks but scored 42 more runs over the course of the season. Carp pitching helped out however as they had the third fewest conceded runs over the course of 2024 for a run differential of exactly 42. The Dragons however were overmatched at a run differential of -55 which makes up for the gulf in difference. (It is worth saying however this is 53 runs better than 2023)

That has been my overview of the 2024 season for the hitters. It was a fun year for the Baystars and for many other teams, younger player pulling the offensive sled has been a boon. Players like Nagaoka, Hosokawa, Morishita, Sato and Fukunaga will be in the league for a number of years to come, and it is great to see them blooming. There's plenty to monitor going into 2025 to see who may bounce back, who continues their form and who bottoms out entirely. Given enough time I will try to do some retrospective pieces like this but perhaps not quite as in depth to really give a sense of what a "good" season is for a player relative to the general hitting environment. 

Until my next post, ciao.

New Staff Announced for Kazuki Inoue's Backroom

If you've been asleep on the Dragons for the past few months, while I wouldn't blame you, you would have missed that Kazuyoshi Tatsunami has resigned after three unsuccessful years. Well, out with the old and in with the Inoue. Kazuki Inoue, the team's farm manager last year has been promoted to the top job. With him he has brought some new friends to the backroom and I would like to make a quick and dirty post here to prognosticate on what their roles may be. 

First, the team parted way with Tatsunami and five of his coaches. Following the hall of famer were Atsushi Kataoka, Kazuhiro Wada, Takahiro Ueda, Takayuki Onishi and Eiji Ochiai - or so we thought.

Incoming is former Hawks MVP and triple-crown man Nobuhiko Matsunaka, former Fighters utility Yuji Iiyama, Eagles Japan Series winner, Shinichiro Koyama, former lefty killer Masato Kobayashi, former golden boy Ryosuke Hirata and recently retired star reliever, Shinji Tajima. 

Apart from Hirata and Tajima, the three coaches that Inoue has brought in with him have experience with other teams. Matsunaka was a career Hawks player while Iiyama was a career Fighters player. Koyama was a former #1 pick with the Dragons before moving to the Eagles when they were established in 2004. Iiyama and Koyama both have coaching experience with their respective teams while Matsunaka was the GM/manager of the Kagawa Olive Guyners in the Shikoku Indy League before doing some guest coaching for the Chiba Lotte Marines. Oh, and did I mention that Eiji Ochiai will be appointed the farm manager - yes in the ultimate 'gotcha' moment, although Ochiai had been announced to be leaving the team, Inoue convinced him to stay on to manage the 2-gun team. All other coaches, are to be retained.

All of these players have a connection to Inoue, although some more obvious than others. Matsunaka and Iiyama are both from Kyushu, like Inoue. Iiyama is also from Kagoshima like Inoue, while Matsunaka hails from Kumamoto. Inoue and Matsunaka got to know each other when Inoue was still in 2-gun as a player and played a game against Matsunaka's industrial league team, Nippon Steel Corporation Kimitsu Works. They have maintained their relationship since. Koyama and Inoue both played for the Dragons at the same time with Koyama being drafted in 1996 and leaving in 2003, overlapping with Inoue's tenure. Hirata and Inoue shared two seasons playing together before Inoue coached Hirata in 2010 under Hiromitsu Ochiai and later under Morimichi Takagi where he would have begun his familiarity with Tajima. 

I don't have any complaints over these appointments. No one really knows how important coaching really is and it's hard to measure. Some players will give credit to certain coaches, I'm sure Hirata credits Masahiro Doi for his good form with the bat during Shigekazu Mori's tenure, but overall who knows. But, what we can at least judge is the character of the coaches, their pedigree and what kind of players they were. 

So far, how the coaches are going to be spread through the organisation along with the retained group is yet to be seen, but I think it will look something like the following. 

Role	Coach
Manager	Kazuki Inoue
Head Coach	Akinori Otsuka
Pitching	Shinichiro Koyama
Pitching	Daisuke Yamai
Hitting	Nobuhiko Matsunaka
Position player	Yuji Iiyama
Infield	Naomichi Donoue
Outfield	Ryosuke Hirata
Battery	Kohei Oda

This is how I see the 1-gun staff line-up. Given the team will now have five pitching coaches plus Eiji Ochiai as a farm manager, I think Otsuka, given his experience, would be an interesting choice as head coach. It goes on the Hiromitsu Ochiai blueprint of a former pitcher taking the reigns like Shigekazu Mori. Otsuka is the most experienced of the coaches remaining in the backrooms so this makes sense to me. (UPDATE [4/11/2024]: Inoue has stated that he won't be employing a head coach)  I wouldn't be suprised if Koyama is now the bullpen coach with Yamai handling the starters more - given Yamai's relative inexperience as a coach, having a guy like Otsuka in the background could be helpful for his development as well. 

I expect hitting to be a combined effort from the coaches involved. Matsunaka is going to be chief here, but I would expect Iiyama, Inoue and maybe even Hirata and Donoue jumping in with their thoughts where necessary. Iiyama is an interesting one, Mitsuo Tateishi under Yoda was the last to have this role and he was credited with helping a number of hitters while roaming about being helpful. Otherwise I think Donoue and Oda stay where they are with Hirata keeping with the relative youth on the top team. Inoue could decide he likes working with Yutaka Nakamura, as he has at Hanshin and on the farm, which could see Hirata on the farm instead. 

Role	Coach
Manager	Eiji Ochiai
Pitching	Takuya Asao
Pitching	Shinji Tajima
Hitting	Masahiko Morino
Hitting	Nobumasa Fukuda
Infield	Yuto Morikoshi
Outfield	Yutaka Nakamura
Battery	Shota Ono
Development	Masato Kobayashi
Development	Hiroyuki Watanabe

I think here, given Ochiai's experience with managing the farm of the Samsung Lions is going to be valuable. I actually thought this was the job that Tatsunami had brought him in for three years ago. A former head pitching coach with the Lions, Chiba Lotte Marines and Dragons, Ochiai can also bring that nous to the farm which makes me think they'll keep the inexperienced Tajima on the farm with Takuya Asao who seems to be good with younger players. Given Matsunaka is a left-handed hitter, I can see Morino staying here too while Fukuda likely stays where he is. Morikoshi worked with Inoue last year and Nakamura similarly worked with him on the farm and at Hanshin. Shota Ono is still only one year into his tenure, and I can imagine he'll stay on the farm unless Inoue wants to swap him with Oda. Somewhat surprisingly for me, Hiroyuki Watanabe will likely retain his role in development while Masato Kobayashi, who was a scorer after he retired in 2014, takes on a development coaching role. I'm very curious to know what Kobayashi will bring. As a scorer, he was often in charge of the Trackman data that the team introduced about five years ago. Is this a turn toward more active use of data? Or is it just the want for a guy who was a good lefty to help mentor some of the new lefty arms coming in and up? Something I'm keen to watch for anyway. 

My only concern with the configuration of the coaches on the farm, is that all of the pitchers were career bullpen arms. Not that it matters all that much, but I wonder who then takes control of the starters. I assume that means Ochiai will have a more active role in managing the pitching staff while perhaps relying more on Morino and Fukuda to develop the hitting. I do theoretically like the idea of a more flexible approach as a coaching group, if this is what is being inferred from these coaching titles and hires. 

Overall there is an interesting mix of former players here that make up the 2025 coaching group. Most of them have had direct playing experience with or under Inoue while the others are friends he...made along the way. The key things to watch for me are the establishment of a head coach, if at all, and what happens to Daisuke Yamai. I'd also maybe keep a lookout for the outfield and battery coach as I think that could be interchangeable depending on what Inoue wants. If he wants more senior leadership on the farm, then Nakamura and Oda could move there. But if he wants a more youthful approach, maybe Ono and Hirata are the combination you go with. Either way, it will be interesting to see how it turns out. 

In the meantime, I will try to do a draft write-up at some point. No promises. The Dragons had a very successful draft based on the base talent they have collected, but as with all drafts, the proof is in the pudding. Of course also, there will be some players inevitably let go as a result of the draft as well, so I will be keeping a keen eye out for new to that regard.

Dragons still in the mix down the stretch, OPS+ leaders and the middle infield.

It has been another interesting year for Dragons fans. Despite sitting in the bottom half of the table despite some early gains, the team are still well in the mix for an A-Class finish. With the All-Star game approaching, I thought it now worth looking at some of the data now that we have a larger sample on the season. 

So far, the highlights of the season have arguably been another high-flying season from Seiya Hosokawa and the gallant return of Hiroto Takahashi. Hosokawa has picked up where he left off last year. Although home runs haven't come as consistently as hoped, the second-year outfielder leads most offensive categories for the team once again this year. Hiroto Takahashi has come back with a vengeance after being sent down before the beginning of the season to work on his pitching form. Now with a sub-1.00 ERA after 11 starts, the Owaraishi native has been taking names. His most recent exploit; an 11K game against the Hanshin Tigers.

Of the less glamorous, production at first base has been hard to come by. Sho Nakata has been underwhelming and recently out of the lineup with injury concerns while Dayan Viciedo appears to have gotten lost in an Ozzie Smith-like void. Neither has been seen or heard from since interleague, mostly with a mixture of Hiroki Fukunaga, Takaya Ishikawa and Orlando Calixte seeing time there. 

Now I feel is as good a time as any to see where the offense stacks up against the rest of the league. OPS+ is my preferred metric here, and I will say, there's quite a few guys that are making waves. I've limited my sample to players that have 100 plate appearances or more. For those unfamiliar, OPS+ is a metric that takes the league average OPS and rates it against the individual. A score of 100 is average. While 120 for example would be a player that is 20% better than average while 80 would be 20% worse. This way we can get context on how good/bad players are stacked up against other hitters in the league. 

Last season, only three qualified Dragons hitters finished the year with an OPS+ of 100 or more. 5 in total. Hosokawa, Ishikawa and Yuki Okabayashi were the only ones who were hitting better than the league average. Now about 85 games in, the Dragons have 6 hitters with 100 PA or more that are doing pretty well. Hosokawa leads this with 132 while former Tigers utility man Yutaro Itayama sits just behind him. Hiroki Fukunaga has built on his promising rookie year last year and also leads the team with RISP at around a .300 clip. Utility guy Orlando Calixte has maintained his early season heroics while Shuhei Takahashi has been pretty good despite fears he may be pushed out of the team. Ishikawa of course has been solid, but perhaps hasn't been hitting the long ball quite as much to get the kudos he deserves. The infield pairing of Mikiya Tanaka and Kaito Muramatsu have been tolerable, and the offensive production in the middle-infield has been good enough particularly when compared to last year. Production on the whole has been on the uptick with Itayama perhaps the only one in this ten that has not been a consistent regular throughout the year. Yuki Okabayashi not being the same hitter he was before his injury is a storyline to follow. It's odd that a guy who relies on contact suddenly can't make any after two relatively consistent years. Will he come back to form? We'll have to keep an eye on him.

What about our prodigious middle-infield? Muramatsu has unfortunately been taken by injury. The Meiji grad was on a tear earlier in the year seemingly hitting everything. He slowed down as the season progressed eventually hitting under .300 before being taken off the first-team roster after injuring his left shoulder in late June. News is however, he should be back soon. Tanaka has been passable enough with a bat as his running game and defense are impeccable. The Asia University ninja has been making some very good looking plays cementing his spot at second base. Compared to the rest of the league though, how are the middle infielders going in terms of offense? Let's have a look at second base.

It should probably surprise no-one that the Baystars' Shugo Maki tops this list. One of the better hitters in the Central League, let alone among middle infielders, Maki is 26% above the league average offensively. Naoki Yoshikawa of the Giants and Takumu Nakano of the Tigers are the only two others that are above average. Our boy Mikiya at 10% below the league average is the worst of the regulars at this position, but one could make an argument that his defence and base-running help make up for his offensive shortcomings compared to some of the others here. Either way you cut it, his bat is the least effective of the Central League second basemen. Let's move onto short-stops.

It is the Swallows man, Hideki Nagaoka who stands at the top of this list as the only short-stop in the Central to be an above-average hitter. This, as you can imagine, brings down the bar for what is considered acceptable offensively. Kaito Muramatsu clocks in at number two, but only just while the combination of Seiya Kinami and Ryuhei Obata at the Tigers rounds out the top three. Similar to the Dragons and Tanaka, defense has been valued over offense at the Carp with Masaya Yano performing below average with the bat but with a great glove. While myriads of solutions have be trialed at short stop for the Baystars with Mori and Kyoda sticking the most but not contributing a lot. Makoto Kadowaki rounds out the list with a relatively underwhelming year considering how well he performed at the tail-end of the 2023 season. The Dragons are getting decent value out of shortstop this year which is a big difference compared to Ryuku for parts of the last two seasons. Ryuku was at times almost unbearable offensively. So far, compared to last year, the Dragons seems to be getting better value out of the middle infield than last year which is a positive step in the right direction.

Overall from this snippet of data, we can see that there just isn't a lot of offensive value to be had in the middle infield across the Central League. Shugo Maki is the only elite hitter here and his defensive value is quite questionable. Nagaoka and Yoshikawa are probably the most rounded of players listed here, as in they can hit and play good defense, but there's no real homer power here. 

One last thing that I haven't touched on at all is production at catcher. Takuya Kinoshita had previously proven to be a threat in that regard, but we haven't seen anything from him at this stage. With free agency not too far around the corner, I am just about ready to hand over the catchers' mask full-time to Kota Ishibashi (although this is something I've been championing for a while now). He certainly couldn't do much worse. 

Overall, some interesting storylines to follow. The Dragons are currently 5th but are only 4.5 games out of a playoff spot at present. There's still a hill to climb, but with every other team falling over itself, there's still hope.

Opening Day 2024: Dragons collapse despite encouraging Yanagi Start

 I had hoped to do some more podcasts in the pre-season, but it has been difficult to find 90 minutes to myself and even harder to find time to edit. So, I will focus on my written word. Here, I'd like to celebrate first that baseball is back, talk a bit about the opening game against the Swallows in Tokyo, and talk a little about the opening day roster and line-up. 

The Dragons didn't have the greatest start to the year. Everything was looking rosy until the 8th inning after a good start from Yuya Yanagi and a go-ahead homer from old-newbie, Sho Nakata. Last year's star out of the bullpen, Shinya Matsuyama would however have a torrid time of locking down the 8th as he gave up 4 earned runs. Debutant, Christian Rodriguez fumbled to start the inning while Matsuyama walked Takeoka bringing up Santana who drove in the equalizing run. A wild-pitch to Yuhei Nakamura gave the Swallows the lead. Yugo Umeno would come-in for damage control but sac-fly and a Haruki Nishikawa triple put the game beyond reach at 7-3. The Dragons would muster one more run in a bases-loaded situation in the 9th thanks to Sho Nakata's sac fly, but last year's golden boy Seiya Hosokawa would hit into a double-play to end the game. 

A number of solid and torrid debuts to round out a disappointing end. Mikiya Tanaka had a good game at the top of the order where he managed a hit a walk and a sac-bunt. Shuhei Takahashi hitting in the #3 spot justified his selection going 3-5 including a double and two RBIs. While Sho Nakata was the best of the rest with his first homer in a Dragons uniform and 2 RBIs. The pitching was perhaps a little lacklustre, but after a shaky 3rd inning, Yanagi righted the ship in his start, taking 4K but giving up 8 hits. Katsuno and Shimizu both had clean innings. 

Overall, a tale of individual performances. Rodriguez two errors were particularly glaring for a player that was selected for his defensive prowess. However, as a 21 year-old debutant, playing in front of a away crowd on opening day is a pretty awe-inspiring feat, so I'm willing to give him benefit of the doubt for having the jitters. However, as Tatsunami has mentioned a willingness to cycle options in the middle-infield, may it have been a smarter idea to start with someone like Kaito Muramatsu, who played at Jingu in college to start the year? It is only one game however and I hope that Rodriguez is given further chances to bounce-back. 

Shuhei Takahashi continued his excellent spring form. Hitting in the hole and smacking that double, is going to go a long way to getting this team underway. If he is on form with Nakata and Hosokawa hitting behind him, that could be a great boon to the line-up. Where Ishikawa fits in when he gets back will be the question, but I'd be open to seeing some second-base Shuhei at some point if that's what ends up happening. Having an additional left-handed bat that has gap to gap power is also a big boon for this team that has a lot of right-handed hitters. If Shuhei can solidify himself in this line-up as a guy that can hit for average and chip in with extra-base hits, the team is going to be better balanced. Now, for the sake of things, let's look at the line-up that was trotted out. 

CF Hironori Miyoshi

2B Mikiya Tanaka

3B Shuhei Takahashi

1B Sho Nakata

RF Seiya Hosokawa

C  Takuya Kinoshita

LF Alex Dickerson

SS Christian Rodriguez

SP Yuya Yanagi

Considering the balance of hitters here, I don't like what's been done with grouping together Nakata, Hosokawa and Kinoshita. I would prefer to see the left-handed Dickerson at least elevated to #6 in this order to break-up the right handers. You will still have a clump of righties at the bottom of the order with Kinoshita, Rodriguez and Yanagi, but apart from Kinoshita, you're not expecting much from those three anyway. I would argue however that starting Muramatsu, a lefty, at short would solve this issue and you can essentially zig-zag your line-up the whole way down. 

Something I wanted to impress on in the podcast that I was creating, was that the Dragons should really take the idea of platooning seriously. This team have a number of players of similar level and there's no real harm in swapping guys out who are better equipped to take on the starting pitcher of the day. Ideally against a guy like Cy Sneed, you'd maybe start Muramatsu over Tanaka or Rodriguez (although I understand the want to use Tanaka). You could start Shingo Usami over Kinoshita. Once someone like Seiji Uebayashi becomes available again, you could have him in the outfield mix as well maybe giving Hosokawa a rest against righties occasionally. 

Something that does however go against this is Tatsunami's choice to win by strength in defence. The philosophy in Japanese is known as, "守り勝つ" which was popularized in the Dragons culture under Hiromitsu Ochiai. The selection of Rodriguez, despite his fumbles, was based on this. The Cuban is seen as a better defender at short than Muramatsu, hence why he plays over the Meiji Uni alum, at least for now. Don't expect to see too many bats-over-gloves kinda types too often. 

The series has just started and the next game will start in a moment, so adios for now.

Dragons Rice Ban: A sensible explanation to a sensationalist story

In August 2023, Yūkan Fuji reported that Dragons hitters had been banned from consuming rice. Dubbed in the media as the reiwa komesōdō (令和米騒動), a play on the rice shortage riots of 1918 and later the much less violent 1993 shortage, the narrative of a dictatorial management of player diets played well in hand with the overall image that manager Kazuyoshi Tatsunami had garnered as being and old school kind of ogre. It is said to have started with restricting Seiya Hosokawa, supposedly as a response to his dropping performance in summer. It was later extended to all hitters. Very little was done by the senior management team to quell this scandal during the season, but in the off-season comments by third-base coach, Takuyuki Onishi, the manager, Tatsunami and some players have given some detail and context.  

To say it has been overblown is probably underplaying it. The way it has been framed is that the players were forbidden from eating rice altogether but the summary is, as they were deemed unable to moderate their intake, a rice cooker was removed from the cafeteria and replaced with pre-made rice balls. For the unfamiliar, a cafeteria or buffet style restaurant will often have a large rice cooker available from which to scoop rice. There's no particular limit and it's like scooping from a large bucket. This was no longer made available to players before games.

 In an exclusive interview with RonSpo, Tatsunami explains:

 "Line-up regulars would often eat big bowls of rice and noodles before games. Before a game, there's no way you can move well with a stomach that full. We'd leave some rice balls for them, but we're just saying don't eat a massive bowl of rice (like that) like a fool. That's all it was." 

This was supported by veteran reliever Daisuke Sobue who says:

 "The story just got big, but there is rice. All it was, was 'let's just not eat so much before games'...after games, there's rice available like normal. In regards to diet, (the team) are being firm but kind. It's just that the article got big, that's all."

Takayuki Onishi was one of the first staff members to speak up about the controversy in a radio interview with Keiichi Wakaasa. Onishi gives his piece:

 "I was there. Chunichi's food is really nice, but line-up regulars would just go to town eating donburi. You could almost say 'are you really going to eat that much?', that's how much they were eating. Not just once, they'd keep going back for more serves. Anyone would think the same thing. (We) arranged a large amount of onigiri to be available. The conversation was about saving (rice for later) and being able to move a bit easier." 

He also goes on to say that the team enlisted the advice of a dietician who also suggested a reduction in the amount of rice eaten by players before games.

The news had some unexpected consequences, with one of the more amusing anecdotes being about Ryuki Watarai, who was the Dragons publicized 1st round pick going into the 2023 draft. Watarai previously had on his Instagram profile that he had a love of sushi, only to change this sashimi in the lead-up to the draft. Otherwise, it was an unfortunate distraction for fans that only made the reputation of Tatsunami and the team even worse.

Broadly speaking, dieticians do not recommend heavy carbohydrate loading before games. Writing for NHK, Satoko Yamada, a sports dietician, recommends loading days before a game while advocating for moderate intake in the 3-4 hours before a game. According to Leslie Bonci (2009), anything between 350 to 700 calories of carb heavy meals should be eaten 3-4 hours before a game to allow for slow burn and better performance. A 200g donburi of rice, for reference, is about 315 calories. A study by Rossi et. al. (2017) however, after assessing a team of NCAA Division 1 players, found the median required calorie intake to be closer to 440 calories depending on the size of the individual. Without doing a more in depth literature review, we cannot draw too many conclusions, but the consensus seems to be that any kind of complex carbohydrates should be induced 3-4 hours before a game. Calorie intake seems to be recommended based on the physical attributes of the player, but generally speaking probably not much more than 400-500 calories per meal. In this case, if players were going back for another bowl of rice that likely already had some kind of topping, this would certainly be a case of overeating which justifies the decision by the team to regulate the intake of rice before games. 

What does this say however of the players? I think it shows a low nutritional literacy among senior players, something that the team should be looking to educate the team on. It is all well and good that the team has taken measures to reduce the carb loading by players, but if the players themselves do not understand the reason behind this nor learn how to eat properly, then this is likely to create further problems and possible animosity down the road. The Dragons team of dieticians, assuming they have one, should be having some sit-down sessions with players in the organisation to educate them about this. 

One further problem that however stems from this is the fact that the team did nothing to control the narrative once the story broke. Tatsunami has spoken of how he paid it no mind and that he's more concerned with someone leaking this to the media, but the fact it took almost 4 months for anyone from the organisation to dispel these rumours seems like a public relations mess-up. For a team whose owners have their hands in media, it seems bizarre that this was let to bubble for so long leading to a damage to the reputation of the team, the manager and anxiety among fans.

Now that the air has cleared somewhat over the Reiwa rice riots, it's hoped that the team can focus on the season ahead. It is a do or die season for Tatsunami and he has organised a very interesting looking team. A finish that sees the Dragons have their first taste of playoff baseball is over a decade is the only thing that will satiate the fans' hunger.