Saturday, December 23, 2023

Dragons capture former Major Leaguer, Alex Dickerson


The off-season fun-ride continues as the Dragons have officially announced that former San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres outfielder, Alex Dickerson will be joining the team. The 33-year old has played in the Atlantic League and the Mexican League since last playing in the majors with the Atlanta Braves in 2022. 

Speculation about a move for Dickerson started with the Dragons savant, Twitter account Akamiso who noted that Dickerson's wife had followed the official Dragons Instagram account. Low and behold, such speculation has proven to be true. 

 Big Dickerson Energy

Dickerson's career in the majors was largely on the fringes with some good seasons mixed in. Originally drafted by the Pirates, he showed his peak in a small sample of games in 2020 while in San Francisco hitting a .947 OPS over 52 games. In 2021 he would become a regular for the Giants, but failed to be much better than league average as he hit 13 homers with an OPS+ of 97. More recently for the Long Island Ducks in the Atlantic League, Dickerson has been prolific hitting for a .965 OPS with 26 homers and a .314 average. In Mexico with Acerero de Monclova, he wasn't quite able to translate that success and squeaked out a .701 OPS over a very small sample size of games; 12. 

Overall there's enough to suggest that he could be successful in a Dragons uniform. His career strikeout rate is below 20%, and while he hasn't shown significant proficiency with the long-ball, he fits the archetype of the kind of player the Dragons were looking for. Previous reports had the team looking for someone who could hit for contact rather than power given their disappointment in the Aristides Aquino experiment. The team had previously been linked to former Orioles and Red Sox farmhand, Aneury Tavarez, but ultimately decided to go with Dickerson. 

Dickerson has a level of familiarity with Dragons pitching coach, Akinori Otsuka. Otsuka was the pitching coaching for the AAA El Paso Chihuahua's in the Padres minor league system while Dickerson was there in 2019. It is said that this may have been a factor in the move. 

Upon signing, Dickerson comments "I'm really looking forward to playing with the Dragons. It has been my dream since I was a kid to play in Japan. I'm in awe of Japan's wonderful culture and history. I'm looking forward to playing in front of the fans,"

Outfield clusterduck?

Where does Dickerson fit in with this team however? Well, for one, he adds to ever-increasing competition for outfield spots. His signing once again shows Tatsunami's desire to have every player battling for their position on the field. Dickerson's likely home will be in left-field, although the team also see him as a first-baseman. In left-field the team have a growing amount of talent to fill those roles including legendary veteran Yohei Oshima, Kenta Bright, who lit up the Phoenix Fall League, Kosuke Ukai, who lit up the Asian Winter League, and new signing, former all-star, Seiji Uebayashi. There is no shortage of healthy competition for spots here and most of these players could also play right-field as well. The one advantage that Dickerson does have is that he add a left-handed bat. This makes his main competition, Seiji Uebayashi. The team have a line-up of righties in the middle of the order and adding a lefty wit a little bit of pop into the mix is of great importance to insure that a good right-handed pitcher can't just mow down the team's best hitters. It will be of great interest to see who emerges in these spots. If a middle infielder could start to hit better however, this would relieve some pressure, but that's another area that needs to develop. 

I think Dickerson is likely the team's opening day left fielder at present, bar injury or extremely good Spring camps from Bright, Ukai or Uebayashi. Seeing him in the #3 spot in the line-up may not be unreasonable either given Hosokawa was not often trusted there throughout the 2023 season, and it would help break-up some of the righties. Although it's possibly equally likely we see him at #5 depending on who hits #2 for the team. It will also depend on the mix of players the team will want to have on the gameday roster. At the same time Dickerson's signing was confirmed, the re-signings of Orlando Calixte, Humberto Mejia and Michael Feliz were also confirmed. Given the team can only put a maximum of four non-Japanese players on the match-day team at any one day, it would mean that someone would have to miss-out on days that Mejia starts. This could just mean tactical use of Feliz in the bullpen, or some shuffling of Calixte and Dickerson. Raidel Martinez of course is one of the first name's on the team sheet. The team can however keep five international players on the 28-man 1-gun roster at all-times, so there should be room for flexibility if the bullpen is managed well. Dayan Viciedo of course, no longer has these rules applied as he counts as a Japanese player for roster considerations given his long tenure in NPB.

What the Dickerson signing shows us is once again a building of extreme depth within the organisation. The team are spending more than they have in a decade and it's becoming clearer that more and more chips are being pushed into the middle to ensure an A-Class finish in 2024. 

Other movers and shakers

  • In slightly...other news. Our old mate who did a runner to the Dominican Republic, Yariel Rodriguez looks to have four suitors for his services in the MLB including the Yankees, Pirates, Astros and Blue Jays. Some pretty big teams there, and the Pirates. The reports have been that Y-Rod wants to be a starter. Having been out of the game for almost a year, I'm worried about how good he'll be once he makes the switch, but I believe he has the stuff to make it happen. Despite the circumstances, I'm glad one of our, albeit former, players is getting recognition in the US. 
  • In the off-season flurry the team have jettisoned the contracts of  fellow defector, Pedro Revilla and Cuban compatriot, Guillhermo Garcia. I had high hopes for Garcia in particular so it's a shame to see him leave. The Dragons however have brought in two new Cuban position players through the same deal in Christián Rodríguez and Carlos Monier. Lastly, the team confirmed they were re-signing Frank Alvarez to a development deal. 
  • Feel free to look over the current roster and allocated jersey numbers on this Wiki rosterbox page I've kept up to date. 
  • Minor controversy over the new rookie jersey numbers as #2 pick, Keishi Tsuda was given the #27 which has been worn by catchers in the organisation since the mid-1980s. Motonobu Tanishige bore the number for more than a decade while Shota Ono was the most recent holder. In a similar vein, #1 pick, Sho Kusaka received the #14 worn by such luminaries as Eiji Bando and, my BAE, Shinji Imanaka. Another almost ace number most recently vacated by Keisuke Tanimoto.
  • Please also take note that my previous post about the 2023 Salary Negotiations is now up to date with only the international players needing updates. 

Monday, December 4, 2023

It's Sho Time! Nakata, Uebayashi, Nakajima and more sign-on.


The Dragons have signed up five new veterans to support the team, including the relatively high profile signings of Sho Nakata, Hiroyuki Nakajima and Seiji Uebayashi. The team have also signed former Tigers' duo, infielder Yasuhiro Yamamoto and utility Yutaro Itayama. 

Sho Nakata is one of the highest profile signings the Dragons have made in over a decade and one of the highest salaries ever dolled out to a free agent at 2-years, ¥600M. Nakata had opted out from his 3-year deal with the Giants following news that Hayato Sakamoto would be moving to third, with Kazuma Okamoto taking over at first-base.

While Nakata is expected to be officially revealed in the coming days, the Dragons have already unveiled the signings of Nakajima, Uebayashi, Yamamoto and Itayama who had all been released from their respective teams this off-season.

So, lets break down the names a little more. The biggest name here of course is, Sho Nakata. Nakata made his name with the Nippon Ham Fighters capturing the RBI title on two occasions and otherwise being an unmovable mainstay at #4 in the Hokkaido line-up. A 10-time All-Star, Nakata was a coveted prospect playing for Osaka Toin High School courting offers from MLB teams before being selected by the Fighters in the first round of the 2007 draft. Nakata's best season came in 2015 where he hit a slash line of .264/.339/.479 with 30 homers. He has however otherwise had five 100+ RBI seasons, the most recent of which was in 2020. Nakata however has not been without controversy. His assault of a team-mate in 2021 led to him being reprimanded by the Fighters and eventually traded to the Yomiuri Giants. This along with his general hard-headedness has led to some skepticism of how far his ego can be reeled in, but the pop in the bat is still there. In 92 games this season he hit 15 homers for the Giants while in 2022 he popped 24 with a .833 OPS. 

Nakata's addition is one that will see Dayan Viciedo relegated to a bench role for the first-time in his Dragons tenure. The effects of the Vantelin Dome are yet to be seen, but Nakata is one of three players the Dragons have picked up in this batch that has a number of individual and team titles next to his name. Tatsunami highly rates his situational hitting ability and it's highly likely Nakata will slot-in at #4 in the Dragons line-up straight away. Much has been made of the personal relationship between Nakata and Tatsunami with the former coaching the latter in the 2013 WBC. Some concerns have been raised over a potential clash of egos in the future, but some team success will likely put these concerns to bed. The deal which the Dragons bring Nakata in on is the 10th highest yearly salary ever paid to a Dragons player, while it seems like the largest ever salary offered to a free-agent beating out Kazuhiro Wada's ¥280M per year deal signed in 2007. Nakata's signing heavily challenges the ongoing narrative of a team that didn't have the money to challenge in free agency, but....here we are. It's only a 2-year deal, so the commitment is on the short-side meaning if it does all go belly up, the Dragons won't be locked in for a lengthy period. The only major concern, is that Nakata, while having immense pedigree, is heading into his age-35 season. How much can we actually expect from an aging veteran who, seems to have had a not great year by his standards in 2023? One projection I have seen from the fan community for Nakata would be for a .260 season at about .770 OPS and 15 homers. Is that better than what you'd expect from Viciedo? Either way, it will be a major boon for the team. Future team-mates are already chittering away at the prospect with the most memorable quote being from Hideaki Wakui who now says "at least I won't have to pay as much for food now" (Veteran players often treat younger players to meals).

Hiroyuki Nakajima is one of the other bigger names here. He was the Lions star short-stop after Hideo Matsui left for the MLB. A right-handed hitter, Nakajima had a strong career particularly through 2008-2010 where he had multiple 20+ homer seasons and league leading OBP. He moved to the majors as an international free agent in 2013 with the Oakland As but never appeared in the MLB as he struggled with injury and adapting to the new environment. He came back to Japan with the Orix Buffloes in 2015, and had some tidy years as their third/first baseman. He became a free agent in 2018 where he has since played with the Giants. Again, two 750+ OPS seasons and a regular at first-base until the addition of Sho Nakata, Nakajima showed his veteranness and pedigree. Now at 41 years old, it's unlikely he has a whole lot more to offer, but the Dragons apparently see him as a pinch-hitting option off the bench. Baseball pundits often talk about the benefit of having veterans that have a winning attitude, and I think Nakajima fits this mould. He contributed to 3 Pacific League pennants and 2 Japan Series victories with the Lions as well as the 2009 WBC. 

I previously outlined first-base as an area of weakness for the Dragons particularly with Nobumasa Fukuda retiring. Adding Nakajima probably fills this hole. I wouldn't expect a lot from a 41-year old veteran, but his presence may be important to helping younger players and largely pulling the team along. His unfortunate yet valuable experience in the US might also be of help to some of the players on the Dragons too. It however puts question marks over Dayan Viciedo's role, but it does give the team options if they want to throw out someone different for a few games here and there. 

Seiji Uebayashi is the one I'm probably the most excited about apart from Nakata. The Dragons have been crying out for a left-handed bat with punch in the outfield corners, and Uebayashi could certainly help in that regard. This will be a popular signing among the Dragons faithful as many have been calling for signing him in some way or another for the best part of the last five years. At only 28 years-old, Uebayashi is in his prime. Had it not been for unfortunate luck with injuries, and playing for the Hawks juggernaut, he would probably still have a job, but lucky for the Dragons he will come help the team in Nagoya. An All-Star in 2017, Uebayashi's best came in that year and 2018 where he was the starting right-fielder for the Hawks and largely hit in the middle of the order. 13 homers with a .736 OPS in 2017 coupled with a follow-up season of 22 homers at an .803 OPS. His ceiling is that of a middle-order hitter who can slug some homers and get on base. He only played in 33 games last year with Softbank, but it was a respectable record as he hit .303 with a .745 OPS. If he can continue an upward trajectory based on this, then that could be a dark horse for the Dragons to the point where he could breakthrough to challenge Hosokawa for his spot in right-field, or potentially force him to first-base or left. Uebayashi's other weapon is his defence. A rocket arm from right-field, he was the NPB's best right-fielder in UZR between 2017-2018. The biggest issue however is injuries. At the start of the 2019 season, he received a dead ball to the hand which derailed his season. Poor form forced him out of contention in the following two seasons, while in 2022 he ruptured his achilles tendon despite making somewhat of a comeback. In 2023, he made a come-back as a bench player, but it was decided by the Hawks that he wasn't needed. 

Again, the veteranness here I think counts. Uebayashi has been part of a winning organisation for his entire career and contributed significantly to their Japan Series wins in 2017 and 2018 while playing parts of other winning seasons. Among these players listed here, Uebayashi has by far the highest upside. If he gets back to some semblance of his former self, he could have a starting job in the outfield which potentially shifts Hosokawa to another position like left-field or first-base which is likely more suited to his defensive capabilities. It could however end after one year with him getting injured or just being poor. It is however an absolute no-brainer to sign a 28-year old former All-Star with the hopes of squeezing something out of them. It's also an area of team-need that hasn't been addressed for some time which increases the team's options particularly with Yohei Oshima dropping off. 

Yamamoto and Itayama I don't think need as much time to look at. Both are tidy pick-ups that potentially fulfill team needs of depth. Yamamoto is a utility infielder that can play across the diamond, while Itayama can play the outfield as well some infield positions. Yamamoto started out with the Giants, after which he moved to the Tigers for cash in 2020. Overall I would expect Yamamoto to provide depth at third, first and second. A good bench option that probably won't need to take reps from players on the farm. Given Calixte's similar utility I'm not sure overall how Tatsunami is seeing the middle-infield shape-up, but Yamamoto at least adds some flexibility. Simply, you could see him as a one-for-one replacement of Naomichi Donoue. Itayama similarly can play the outfield and probably second/first base, but unlike Yamamoto, Itayama will reportedly be signing a development contract. Assuming the signing goes through, it is likely that Yamamoto will become the first ever player to play for the Giants, Tigers and Dragons. He's also gone in reverse order of population centres as well which is a tidy little fact I can appreciate.

The top-5 of the Dragons could be potentially very good this year. A combination of Okabayashi, Oshima/Uebayashi, Hosokawa, Nakata and Ishikawa is on paper, a very tidy line-up. However, I would caution that the spectrum of possibility is incredibly wide. Okabayashi is the only one here I would say doesn't have large concerns regarding injury or regression. Oshima is 38 and had one of his worst years in 2023, Hosokawa is all but a rookie and I'm not sure how much we can rely on him reproducing his form, Nakata is 35 and could fall-off while Ishikawa too is no certain thing. If however, they all click, then you've got an above-average offense to complement an NPB leading pitching staff. That should be all the Dragons need to have an A-Class season. 

What I think these signings show however, is an organisational desire for Tatsunami to succeed. He has the backing of the front office in a way that hasn't been seen since Hiromitsu Ochiai, and that was only after he won them success on the field. Successive managers like Motonobu Tanishige, Shigekazu Mori and Tsuyoshi Yoda were not given this level of support to make personnel changes. Faith in your manager seems to be a major difference here. Tatsunami is receiving almost unprecedented levels of support. If however it still fails after all this, well, all you can say is that he wasn't up to the job. What is will say however, that the amount of players moves that have been done while Tatsunami has been in charge have been impressive and for the most part, the players that have been brought in, have had an impact. To project a line-up for the 2024 opening day we could likely see Okabayashi, Muramatsu, Hosokawa, Nakata, Ishikawa, Uebayashi, Kinoshita, Tanaka, Ogasawara. Compare that to the 2021 opening day line-up of Oshima, Abe, S. Takahashi, Viciedo, Hirata, Kyoda, Kinoshita, Neo, Fukutani. It looks likely that Kinoshita will be the only player considered a first name on the team-sheet guy with 3 of those players no longer with the organisation at all. 

A revolution is still going on. Changes could still be on the cards however as the active player draft is on the horizon and the Dragons could choose to wheel and deal some trades with their pitching depth for the right pieces. 

Saturday, November 11, 2023

2023 Salary Negotiations

 A few years since I've done this, but I thought I'd mock this up to give us a better idea of the kinds of money that might be available to take on in trades, free agency or the active player draft among other things. Also, generally, just to get a feel for how much money is being spent, such as what is locked up with veterans. I've also added in a few key stats to have a look at while we're here. 

As per previous attempts, I will be making it ¥100 to $1 just to make it easy. It's more like ¥70 to $1 USD, but I'm more looking at a general idea of what the wage budget looks like rather than to make direct comparisons with other leagues. Please also take note that statistics indicated with an asterisk are for players that featured on the farm but not the first team. All others are representative of their performance with the top team. Those that didn't make an appearance at all in either team have nothing recorded (this includes 2023 draftees).

I will attempt to update this regularly as the negotiations are finalised and more details come through. These are the finished negotiations as of the afternoon of the 22nd of December. All deals have been finalised, but the deals for Calixte, Mejia, Feliz and Dickerson haven't been made public yet.

PitcherAgeRoleWageUp/DownGIPWLSO%ERA
Yudai Ono35SP $3,000,000 - 17013.860.00
Raidel Martinez27RP $2,000,000 - 4846.23111.960.39
Yuya Yanagi29SP $1,480,000 $400,000 24158.14115.972.44
Hideaki Wakui37SP $1,000,000 - 211115137.223.97
Daisuke Sobue36RP $1,000,000 - 4540.1357.813.57
Shinnosuke Ogasawara26SP $930,000 $270,000 25160.27127.513.59
Kento Fujishima25RP $700,000 $240,000 5650.2118.171.07
Hiroto Takahashi21SP $630,000 $280,000 251467118.942.53
Takahiro Matsuba33SP $500,000 - 1157.2143.123.28
Tatsuya Shimizu24RP $500,000 $180,000 5046.23310.413.09
Hiroto Fuku31RP $430,000 -$70,000 2917.2107.642.55
Akiyoshi Katsuno26RP $400,000 $210,000 5049.1528.942.01
Yoshiki Sunada28RP $380,000 -$120,000 1813.2017.904.61
Shinji Tajima33RP $350,000 - 3229.2129.404.85
Yugo Umeno24RP $280,000 -$70,000 ------
Sho Iwasaki34RP $280,000 - - - - - - -
Koki Saito26RP $230,000 $100,000 3124.2208.760.73
Koji Fukutani32SW $200,000 -$20,000 1454346.005.17
Shinya Matsuyama23RP $175,000 $133,000 3635.11112.741.27
Akira Neo23SP $160,000 -$25,000 212.2002.840.71
Sho Kusaka22SP $160,000 - - - - - - -
Reia Nakachi22SP $150,000 -$10,000 943.1257.684.98
Yuki Hashimoto25RP $120,000 $10,000 1315.1105.281.17
Hiroto Mori25RP $115,000 -$30,000 *33*33*2*4*7.09*5.73
Toshiya Okada31RP $100,000 -$90,000 - - - - - -
Kodai Umetsu27SP $100,000 $5,000 319115.210.95
Frank Alvarez24SW $100,000 - *17*22.2*2*3*5.56*6.75
Kotaro Ueda21SW $85,700 -$4,700 1320006.754.50
Taisei Ishimori26RP $78,000 -$12,000 *22*19.2*0*1*9.61*10.53
Shota Habu22RP $72,000 - - - - - - -
Ryuma Kato24RP $72,000 - - - - - - -
Konosuke Fukuda18SP $60,000 - - - - - - -
Akio Moriyama18SP $60,000 - *4*23*0*1*2.74*3.13
Shotaro Fukushima21RP $57,500 -$1,000 43.1005.4013.50
Tsubasa Kato20RP $51,500 -$3,500 *8*6*0*1*6.00*12.00
Kenshin Kakigoshi23SP $51,400 -$1,100 *14*84*3*5*3.00*4.39

BatterAgeRoleWageUp/DownGamesBAHRRBIOPSSB
Dayan Viciedo34IF $3,760,000 -910.2446230.6410
Sho Nakata34IF $3,000,000 -------
Yohei Oshima38OF $2,500,000 -1300.2890230.6506
Yuki Okabayashi21OF $730,000 $330,000 1430.2793310.68812
Takuya Kinoshita32C $680,000 - 890.2375260.6580
Shuhei Takahashi29IF $675,000 - 860.2150140.5241
Seiya Hosokawa25OF $450,000 $351,000 1400.25324780.7800
Shingo Usami30C $410,000 $110,000 690.2823140.6940
Takaya Ishikawa22IF $300,000 $150,000 1210.24213450.6760
Shohei Kato32OF $230,000 - 590.225040.5042
Shunta Goto30OF $210,000 - 520.182060.5100
Seiji Uebayashi28OF $200,000 -------
Hiroyuki Nakajima41IF $200,000 -------
Ryuku20IF $190,000 $55,000 1140.1871180.4562
Kaito Muramatsu22IF $170,000 $50,000 980.2071200.4921
Yasuhiro Yamamoto30IF $160,000 -------
Takuma Kato31C $150,000 -$40,000 100.000000.0000
Hiroki Fukunaga26IF $144,000 $72,000 970.2412150.6122
Seiji Kawagoe30OF $137,500 -$2,500 180.212010.5200
Kosuke Ukai24OF $135,000 -$15,000 410.143350.4231
Kenta Bright24OF $135,000 -$5,000 330.241040.6332
Kota Ishibashi23C $125,000 $30,000 390.257290.6960
Keishi Tsuda21IF $120,000 -------
Carlos Monier22OF $100,000 -------
Cristian Rodriguez21IF $100,000 -------
Masami Ishigaki25IF $95,000 -$5,000 220.087000.2470
Rintaro Tsujimoto22IF $90,000 -------
Hironori Miyoshi26OF $86,000 -$4,000 300.154000.5433
Yutaro Itayama29IF/OF $85,000 -------
Shonosuke Hama23IF $67,300 -$4,700 *88*0.205*1*13*0.5156
Yuma Fukumoto24IF/OF $67,000 -$5,000 *58*0.321*2*21*0.7630
Mikiya Tanaka22IF $65,500 -$6,500 *8*0.133*0*0*0.267*1
Taisei Miya20C $64,000 $4,000 60.286000.5710
Rynosuke Yamaasa19C $61,000 $1,000 70.000000.0000
Mao Hoshino19IF $54,000 - *46*.205*0*3*0.567*2
Seishu Higuchi24IF $47,600 $5,600 70.000010.0000
Goriki Oda23OF $30,000 -------
Koki Hiwatari19C $30,000 -------
Rii Kawakami22OF $30,000 -------
Alex Dickerson33OF TBA -------
Orlando Calixte31IFTBATBA470.2335130.6390


Some notes. Shinji Tajima and Yudai Ono are in the final year of multi-year deals they signed earlier on. Ono is the team's top earning pitcher, and top overall earner after Dayan Viciedo. Once those two deals come off the books next year, that will free up a lot of the wage budget.

Here's a list of those that left and an indication of what money has been theoretically re-added to the wage budget. Of course, a lot of this will be chewed up by raises for other players this year. 

PlayerSalary
Aristides Aquino-$1,700,000
Yariel Rodriguez-$600,000
Keisuke Tanimoto-$420,000
Nobumasa Fukuda-$350,000
Zoilo Almonte-$300,000
Naomichi Donoue-$290,000
Shota Ono-$220,000
Hayato Mizowaki-$150,000
Hiroshi Suzuki-$135,000
Yuichiro Okano-$85,000
Kosuke Ito-$72,000
Hiroki Matsuda-$30,000
  
Total-$4,352,000

In terms of overall spend, this is a little more than what the Dragons have spent last year. But what is interesting, is that since Tatsunami took over, after his first year anyway, wages have gone from $24.7M in 2020, to what I now calculate as $32.1M in 2024. That's not even counting the probably 2ish million likely going to Calixte, Feliz, Dickerson and Mejia. This is a huge amount of money for this team to be spending. The team hasn't seen this kind of spending since the 2012 season that was still brimming with veterans from the Dragons golden era. The good thing here, is that some of this money will move off the books in 2025 with Viciedo's deal ending and with possibly a Yohei Oshima retirement at some point. Even Sho Nakata's deal is only two years so the commitment isn't that long for any of the high earners. The Dragons may also look to flip Shuhei Takahashi for something on the trade market to reduce their wage budget. 

Tuesday, November 7, 2023

Off-season plan: Trades, Active-player draft, FA and foreign signings.


 I am working on a draft piece, but I thought I'd address this first. Keiichi Wakaasa of CBC Sports talked a little bit about how the roster is shaping up and I thought I'd respond with my own thoughts about what the team should do. After the draft and a re-shuffling of players to development contracts, the Dragons currently have 60 players on their active roster. They have 10 spots that can be used to promote from within or sign from without. As Wakaasa has mentioned, the team had 65 spots taken up at opening day in 2023 and it would stand to reason that the team would look to maintain this or be one more or less. But it's here I want to take the specification with what we're working with. Secondly, Wakaasa also points out the team are overflowing with pitchers. They have 33 on the active roster now so trading them or putting them out for the active player draft might well be an option. This is what we have, what then do we need. 

Depth Chart

A quick look over the organisational depth chart tells us a few things but lets look at each area. I've broken these up into starting pitching, catchers, and then each other position. I haven't bothered to deal with relievers because, well, there's a lot of them and any pitcher can be a reliever, not to mention the spectrum of possibility for a good season for a reliever is quite wide and influenced by a number of factors.

Firstly, starting pitching:

Starters
Hiroto Takahashi
Yudai Ono
Hideaki Wakui
Shinnosuke Ogasawara
Yuya Yanagi
Humberto Mejia
 
Kodai Umetsu
Akira Neo
Hiroshi Suzuki
Reia Nakachi
Takahiro Matsuba
 
Sho Kusaka
Kotaro Ueda
Akio Moriyama
Konosuke Fukuda
Yuki Matsukihira

I've broken these up into three groups. The first, is what I'd expect to see for most of the 2024 season and probably on opening day. The second group would be your 'first-up' guys while the third group would be a developing group that may not quite be ready to just slot in. Unsurprisingly perhaps, this is an area of great strength for the team. The top six starters are largely excellent, and maintaining Mejia really helps with depth. Umetsu coming back and Neo settling into his new role means that depth has developed here in the past 9 months or so. Nakachi of course is a great back-up and will see some innings while Matsuba is at the lower-end of this scale having not performed overly well last year. Hiroshi Suzuki also looks primed to see some back of the rotation starts. 

With all that said and done, I don't think there's any particular need here for the Dragons. There's plenty of depth to service both the top-team and the farm, while Yuki Matsukihira, currently on a development deal, also fills out some of the innings required in 2-gun. This means there's 17 other pitchers on the main roster (plus some development guys) that can throw innings in relief. 

Team Need: Nil


Catchers
Takuya Kinoshita
Kota Ishibashi
Shingo Usami
 
Takuma Kato
Ryunosuke Yamaasa
Taisei Miya

The team strengthened mid-season with the addition of Shingo Usami to the catching mix. Now with Shota Ono retired, he becomes the veteran back-up. Kota Ishibashi should be pushing for the starting mask now; his confidence will be up having been selected for the U-23 Samurai Japan team. Kato is your veteran back-up while Yamaasa and Miya are the other young-guns. Miya has been seeing some time around the field to test his utility, but is still seen largely as a catching prospect. The Dragons also brought in Toki Hiwatari in the development draft, so seven catchers in total. This will probably be enough to catch bullpen sessions and spread the workload. The team might want to think about getting another guy, but it's not a major area of need.

Team Need: Negligible

First-Base
Dayan Viciedo
Seiya Hosokawa
Shingo Usami
Takaya Ishikawa

Big question marks here. Viciedo did okay down the stretch but he's not been at his best since Tatsunami took over. He removed the shackles of his 'foreign player' tag in 2024, meaning he won't count toward the limit on the game-day roster. But, well, what else do you have? Hosokawa is the Dragons primary right-fielder and probably best back-up at first-base. Ishikawa and Usami have played on first in 2023 but it's clear that Ishikawa has higher value to the team sitting on third. With Nobumasa Fukuda retiring, the team have a real dearth of organisational depth at first-base, which is worrying. Hiroki Fukunaga may emerge as an option however. This is certainly a major area that needs to be addressed in the off-season if it can be. 

Team Need: Strong

Second-Base
Mikiya Tanaka
Hiroki Fukunaga
Kaito Muramatsu
Seishu Higuchi
Masami Ishigaki
Orlando Calixte

In 2023, like short-stop, second was a tumultuous turnover of players. Kaito Muramatsu was meant to start here but Mikiya Tanaka's injury meant that he ended up sharing time between short and second. Fukunaga hit well in the first half but faded while Seishi Higuchi emerged as an option halfway through the season. Orlando Calixte played here as well, but seemed to slide into short-stop down the stretch. It's a bit of a mess here but you'd think Mikiya Tanaka would probably be the most likely option at this stage, while Fukunaga could potentially play there again. Muramatsu may also be in the running but it depends on who wins the job at short. Messy, but there are options here. 

Team Need: Roll the dice with what you have

Short-stop
Ryuku
Orlando Calixte
Kaito Muramatsu
Keishi Tsuda
Rintaro Tsujimoto

The team probably did their best to increase competition at short with addition of Keishi Tsuda and Rintaro Tsujimoto. Whether they'll be immediately up to speed or not is another question. Ryuku is the incumbent and put up some incredible defensive numbers beating out Lions infield maestro, Sosuke Genda in UZR this year. The bat however just isn't there. He hit around the .200 mark with very little power. Calixte saw some time here down the stretch as previously mentioned, but was by no means a superstar. Very up for grabs, but the team have in-house options they'll be experimenting with. 

Team Need: Roll the dice with what you have


Third-base
Takaya Ishikawa
Shuhei Takahashi
Orlando Calixte
Hiroki Fukunaga
Masami Ishigaki

Shuhei Takahashi is a quality back-up to have behind Ishikawa. Shuhei is former golden glove winner and has been a .300 hitter at times. Calixte's utility means he saw innings here while Fukunaga too was tried at third. There's not major depth here, but I personally wouldn't be looking to undercut this by, say, potentially offering Shuhei up in the active player draft. Fine as-is but the team will need to look for depth here in the near future.

Team Need: Low

Centre-Field
Yuki Okabayashi
Yohei Oshima
Kenta Bright
Hironori Miyoshi
Shohei Kato
Shunta Goto

Similar to third-base, when you have a quality back-up like Oshima, I don't think you have to worry too much. Okabayashi played a full-season of games in 2023 anyway, so you could piece together a few games here and there with options available. Kenta Bright was getting some reps on the farm in centre-field so he's a decent option there while Hironori Miyoshi, Kato and Goto round out your other 'probably-won't-hit-but-could-defend' guys. 

Team Need: Low

Right-field
Seiya Hosokawa
Yuki Okabayashi
Kenta Bright
Hironori Miyoshi
Shohei Kato

Right-field is where things start to get a bit more stretched. Bright's emergence does mean there's a good back-up behind Hosokawa if he goes down, but there's not a whole lot else to come after that. Ukai is another potential option I've left out here because he's been playing mostly in left, but theoretically you could have him in right in a pinch. Miyoshi and Kato won't help your offense very much but are both decent athletes. Probably worth adding someone here if you can. 

Team Need: Moderate

Left-field
Yohei Oshima
Kenta Bright
Kosuke Ukai
Seiji Kawagoe
Hironori Miyoshi
Shunta Goto

Left field has a few more options. Ukai and Kawagoe are decent options for left-field if Bright has to play every other-day in a different position. Miyoshi and Goto are again, not great back-ups but they're good enough to be place-holders. If they're however starting 50 games for you in left field, the season has probably not gone particularly well. There's probably enough here, but you might want to add someone.

Team Need: Low-to-moderate

Regarding the outfield, I would like to just make one comment as a whole, there could be need just for extra bodies to ensure coverage between the two teams. Including development players there are only 11 outfielders in the organisation (12 if you want to count Yuma Fukumoto) which is on the low side if you start having injuries. I could envision the team picking up an outfielder in the active player draft, or as a foreign signing. You might even see a scrap-heap claim to help with depth. 

The Plan

So with all this in mind, here is how I see organisation need:

First base: Strong
Corner Oufield: Moderate
Third base: Low
Catcher: Low

These are our three areas where you could or should pick up 3-4 players to increase coverage. You might want to throw in another reliever type just to increase the mix although I don't think it's all that necessary. 

Without much further ado, I will outline my plan for addressing these weaknesses. 

First base

Key Targets: Sho Nakata, Hotaru Yamakawa

Although Nakata and Yamakawa are not great human beings, they would fulfill a great organisational need for the Dragons. They would both demand multi-year, $2-2.5M or so a year contracts, but the difference between these two and a foreign slugger for example is, they know the league and have solid track records. I'm by no means advocating what these players have done in their time off the field, but they would both be excellent additions on it. If you also add into the fact that Viciedo's deal is up next year, maybe you then take-on either of these two with a similar deal and just avoid an Aquino like splash. Had Aquino succeeded, the team would have opened their cheque-book to lock him down, so I don't see the difference is signing someone like Nakata and Yamakawa to a similar deal for 2024 and beyond. When Viciedo clears the books at the end of 2024, you can then pursue another high quality international signing to fold into the team. While I know the Dragons generally avoid the free agent market like the plague, this would be a prudent capture if Tatsunami truly wants to win something this year or at least elongate his tenure with a playoff run. Given what has happened with the team so far and the almost blind trust the organisations seems to have in their manager, the team are probably already kicking tires on these two.

I personally would probably prefer Nakata who has shown success in the Central League and has a longer track record, but Yamakawa's relative youth also puts forward an interesting dilemma. Affordability will likely be key and Yamakawa is particular might be available for the right price given the recency of his controversy.

Corner outfield

Key Targets: Seiji Uebayashi (Senryokugai), Luis Liberato (AAA Padres), Taishi Kusumoto (Baystars), Kazuki Tanaka (Eagles), Kazuki Kamizato (Baystars), Daiki Asama (Fighters)

I'd probably look to take two of these, maybe three if you were greedy. Seji Uebayashi was released by the Hawks recently and would probably be a step above many of the current back-ups. He would certainly fill out depth in right-field and has a killer arm. Once a key part of the Hawks line-up, injuries have derailed him somewhat, but he'd definitely be worth taking a flyer on. Only 28 years old and certainly has upside that I think the Dragons could and should gamble on. The other names I have listed are likely those that would be available for a trade or in the active player draft. Kamizato, Tanaka and Asama stand out for me. All three can play the all over the outfield. Kamizato has fallen out of favour with Daisuke Miura, but was a favourite of Alex Ramirez, has some pop and is a decent defender. Tanaka was a rookie of the year not too long ago and certainly has something I think could be tapped into while Asama is similarly one that has had potential, but hasn't quite busted through. I've also listed Padres AAA outfielder Luis Liberato here as a possible pick-up. At present, organisational depth for the Padres, he will be 28 by the end of the year and is currently hitting very well in the Dominican Winter League. If he's interested, I'd certainly be looking to pursue him. He can play across the outfield and has good bat-to-ball skills and power. Akinori Otsuka, who will be scouting in the DR this off-season has said he'll be looking for a hitter with good contact skills and I think Liberato could be that guy. He has a career 24% K-rate in AAA which is average but an 11% walk-rate which is a bit above average. In addition to a .800+ OPS over the last two seasons, he might be a prudent pick-up. Availability however is the main question.

My first preference here would be to take Uebayashi on a free, Liberato on a $700k or so a year deal and maybe aim for Kamizato, Asama or Tanaka in the active-player draft or through trades.

Corner Infield/ Utility

Key Targets: Akihiro Wakabayashi (Giants), Richard Sunagawa (Hawks)

There could be a few more additions you could make here but I've settled on two that I'd really like. Akihiro Wakabayashi offers significant utility. He has played almost every position for the Giants at some point in his career bar catcher. Fast and versatile, he would give the Dragons options beyond what someone like Shohei Kato, Shunta Goto or Hiroki Fukunaga for example could offer. Richard Sunagawa however is probably the tastiest of the options available on the trade/active-player draft market. With prodigious power, Sunagawa would be a great way to increase the stocks of corner infielders for the Dragons. If you were to acquire him in a trade before the active-player draft for example, the team might then be able to put up Shuhei Takahashi to shed a little pay-roll. Sunagawa hit 19 homers with an .885 OPS in the Western League this season however a .225 average is likely to turn off some suitors. I would however certainly roll the dice with him. 

If you're not going to pursue someone like Nakata or Yamakawa in the off-season, Sunagawa offers a cut-price option. The Hawks recently traded away two of their arms to the Giants for Adam Walker meaning they might be open to replenishing their stocks a little. The Dragons have plenty of pitching, so there could be an opening here to get in before the lottery of the active-player draft. He will still have his fair share of suitors. Not many farm-hands hit double-digit homeruns in the Western League, let alone 19. Sheesh.

Catcher

Key Targets: Tomoya Kakinuma (Marines), Shosei Nakamura (Carp)

If the team really wants another catcher, which is of course completely possible as they lost Yuya Gunji mid-season and Shota Ono to retirement, they could pursue a veteran like Tomoya Kakinuma from the Marines or another young-gun with upside like Shosei Nakamura from the Carp. Nakamura was actually the team's first choice to take with the #1 pick in 2017 after which they ended with Hiroshi Suzuki. Nakamura has not quite developed the way the Carp had hoped, and this could be a good name to throw into the mix. It would be an option that kind of defeats the purpose of the active-player draft as he's no more likely to play for the Dragons as he is for the Carp at this stage of his career. Kakinuma however is 30 now and could be a solid back-up. I'd rate him a step above Takuma Kato for example but probably not as good as Shingo Usami. There are a number of other catchers in a similar position who could benefit from moving teams, but Kakinuma is one that could fulfill need for organisational depth should they want it while Nakamura would be an interesting option, but likely not a particularly profitable move for the player himself at this stage of his career.

Summary of Findings

The team realistically have five to six free spots but it's likely many of the moves I've suggested would end up with someone leaving. In terms of pitching, the Dragons have a number of arms that have some upside that could end up being trade-bait or given up in the active player draft. How the draft plays out this year as well will be curious. Last year's draft was a single round that ended with the Dragons taking Seiya Hosokawa, but it's possible there could be multiple rounds this year with teams being a bit more adventurous the second year around. I certainly would advocate for the Dragons trying to mix it up to get players that will fulfill areas of depth. 

In an ideal world I would aim to get Hotaru Yamakawa (FA), Seiji Uebayashi (FA), Luis Liberato (FA), Daiki Asama (Trade/AP Draft) and Richard Sunagawa (Trade/AP Draft).

Uebayashi in my mind is a must get. He might well draw competition for his signature, but the price is right and he's just sitting there. Go and get him. Yamakawa would take will from the organisation, but I'd certainly offer up a 3+ year deal at about $1.5-$2M a season, it's possible that Yamakawa might even take a prove-it kind of 2-year deal at a lower AAV given how his reputation has been damaged by sexual assault allegations. Asama I feel is a decent get as he'll add depth with a bit of upside but probably won't have immediate expectations of needing to start games, while Sunagawa would be first-man up at 1st or 3rd base should Ishikawa or, if you don't get Yamakawa, Viciedo goes down or is just bad. I don't see catcher as particularly necessary. The team rolled with 7 catchers after Gunji was traded and they're at the same amount now. Ono is now the 2-gun battery coach, but could very well still catch bullpens. Kohei Oda with the first-team was also pretty active in this regard last season. And of course, the team have a number of full-time bullpen catchers. 



A couple more extrapolations on this, if you sign Uebayashi you could potentially allow for Hosokawa to play more first-base, which is probably a better place for him defensively, this may also lessen the need to sign Yamakawa or even Sunagawa for that matter. Liberato similarly would give you the outfield depth to play with the defensive configuration of the team. Liberato could be your regular left-fielder with Okabayashi through the centre and Uebayashi in right. Hosokawa could then play first in place of Viciedo who can just drop to the bench. The only negative about signing Uebayashi would be potentially blocking Kenta Bright, but once again, if your matra is "win now" you might as well sign the seasoned veteran. Uebayashi has been a frequent favourite trade target for the Dragons faithful, but there are yet any reports over who is moving in for him of if the Dragons are keen.

I think what I've suggested above as a starting eight is well within the realms of possibility with only Liberato being the only main question-mark as to whether or not he'd want a move or if the Padres would let him go. Whether or not the Dragons take a minor reputation hit with signing Yamakawa would be a question, whether or not they'd want to pay him is another, so I haven't included him in this particular theoretical. The Dragons appear to have been early to move to get in contact with Yamakawa, but it seems now that the Softbank Hawks are equally interested in his services.

Overall, this kind of shake-up should help improve the team. Hosokawa is not a good defender in right, whereas someone like Uebayashi is a, well, incomparable. Tsuchida is still a question mark offensively, but he's the best of the defensive options at short. Mikiya Tanaka I feel has the greatest upside at second with his very quick feet and contact skills. The rest I feel more or less explains itself. On the bench, I would probably have Oshima, Calixte, Sungawa, Muramatsu, Viciedo, Bright and Ishibashi with all those guys getting a number of games throughout the season based on match-ups, form, and resting players. 

Friday, October 6, 2023

An Ode to a season gone: How are we shaping up for next year?

 In Nagoya, Tatsunami did coach,

But rice for his Dragons, he'd approach

With a stingy demeanor,

Their year grew much leaner,

No victories, just hunger, encroach!

I thought I'd start things off on a lighter note with a limerick. It's been an odd season and Tatsunami's hardassery has gotten tiring. Banning his players from eating rice was just seasoning on the onigiri he refused to give to his players. 

The team finished the year in 6th place. Had they won or tied their final game against the Giants they would have finished ahead of the Swallows. However, 56 wins is the total which is somehow better than I thought they'd end up. What has started happening however is a number of moving and shaking to make next year a better one for the team. Whether this will actually make a positive difference is yet to be seen but let's go through a few things. 

Roster Moves

Firstly, we already have an idea of who is staying and leaving. In terms of retirements, the team bid farewell to long-serving infielders Nobumasa Fukuda and Naomichi Donoue while former Fighters team-mates, Keisuke Tanimoto and Shota Ono said so long to their professional careers. We will be seeing three of them again next year in a different capacity but I will get to that a little bit later. 

In terms of other outgoings, big-money signing, Aristides Aquino has been shown the door after mastering a single homerun in 1-gun after one season. Zoilo Almonte has similarly been shown the door after a disappointing year for him as well. Who will stay is Orlando Calixte, who impressed down the stretch while mid-season additions Humberto Mejia and Michael Feliz are looking to be retained. With Dayan Viciedo becoming a "Japanese" player for roster purposes next season, the Dragons have a lot of roster flexibility with their import options next year. Calixte, Mejia, Feliz and closer Raidel Martinez are the only four foreign players on the full-time roster ahead of the 2024 season. I would 100% expect the team to pursue another slugger in the off-season however. 

The first line of senryokugai notices has also gone out with only three players being announced as being unrequired for next year. Righty pitcher Yuichiro Okano, outfielder Kosuke Ito and development contracted southpaw, Hiroaki Matsuda are on the way out. Okano was an older player drafted out of the industrial leagues in 2019 but failed to make a substantial impact. Matsuda was a media darling to start his life with the Dragons given he'd never thrown a baseball until he reached high school and was the ace of the Nagoya University team. Unfortunately after some early promise, he is on the way out. The most surprising however is the removal of Ito. The Aichi native was drafted out of Toho High School and played some first team games early in his career with the 1-gun side mostly in left field. He has had frequent issues with injury including this season. I'm surprised they didn't try to re-sign him on a development deal at least. It also baffles me they'd keep him over a 33-year old Shohei Kato, but I guess the veteran's current utility suits Tatsunami's philosophy about winning in the here and now. 

After the draft in October, we may see some further shake-ups but for the time being these are the main outgoings.  

Coaching Staff Shuffle

This is perhaps where some of the biggest changes are happening. The coaching staff is getting a shuffle after a derelict two years. On the outgoing side, we have the long-serving infield coach Masahiro Araki, battery coach Shuji Nishiyama and hitting coach, Nori Nakamura. Nishiyama left at his own volition, while the other two apparently seem to have been ousted. 

There is however a few new incomings confirmed. As I previously mentioned, three of the retirees will be joining the coaching ranks. Naomichi Donoue (infield defense), Nobumasa Fukuda (hitting) and Shota Ono (battery) have already been confirmed to replace the outgoing trio. It has also been reported that former outfielder and most recently, Hanshin Tigers head coach, Kazuki Inoue has been invited to take over the farm team from Atsushi Kataoka. The kicker however is that Kataoka will now become Tatsunami's right-hand man with the top-team while Eiji Ochiai will slip into a pitching coach only role. It has yet to be announced how the two coaching groups will be lining up but I can pitch my assumptions. My guess for the new formation would be: 

Kazuyoshi Tatsunami (Manager)
Atsushi Kataoka (Head Coach)
Eiji Ochiai (Pitching)
Akinori Otsuka (Pitching)
Kazuhiro Wada (Hitting)
Masahiko Morino (Hitting)
Kohei Oda (Battery)
Naomichi Donoue (Infield Defense)
Takayuki Onishi (Outfield Defense) 

I think we'll see a promotion of Oda to the first-team given he's a trusted confidant of Tatsunami's and the more experienced coach now that Nishiyama has been replaced by Ono. I also assume that between Yuito Morikoshi on the farm and Naomichi, that the team will go with the latter. Naomichi is still relatively young and many of the infielders he will be working with are also on the younger side of things which makes me think they'll stick him in a first-team coaching role. On the farm we can figure out the rest: 

Kazuki Inoue (Manager)
Daisuke Yamai (Pitching)
Takuya Asao (Pitching)
Yoshinori Ueda (Hitting)
Nobumasa Fukuda (Hitting)
Shota Ono (Battery)
Yuito Morikoshi (Infield Defense)
Yutaka Nakamura (Oufield Defense)
Hiroyuki Watanabe (Position player development)

I think this makes the most sense. Watanabe could be moved back into a scorers role if they wanted to, although he could also be a wild card for the infield-defense job on the top team as it is a role he's fulfilled before under Motonobu Tanishige's tenure. Yutaka Nakamura is an interesting one as his connection to the team was through Kataoka. I can't however see the Tatsunami agreeing to his mate Onishi being demoted to the farm. In the end, Nakamura will probably be fine on the farm having spent a year with his fellow coaches. He'll be familiar with Inoue as well as the two were both at the Tigers in 2020 and 2021. Ono's addition here makes more sense. Between Miya, Yamaasa and to a lesser extent, Kota Ishibashi, there's a lot of younger catchers that could benefit from his mentorship. There' also a good chance the Dragons chase another catcher at the draft this year. 

That's what I envision the shake-up to be. Kataoka' appointment as head coach seems like...fun. He wasn't successful in a similar role at the Tigers. There were murmurs that Kazuhiro Kiyohara, another former PL Gakuen alumnus, was going to be invited to fulfil the role for Tatsunami but rumours go that Chunichi Shimbun Co. blocked the move due to the image that Kiyohara brings with him as a former drug user. I don't really see a lot of difference here but maybe Kataoka coming in frees up Ochiai to work on the pitchers a bit more. Apart from that, unless some of this new appointees just say something that clicks with players, I can't see what would change. We'll just have to wait and see. 

Phoenix Fall League Squad

Before we get into fall camp, we will have the annual Phoenix fall league. A number of first teamers are going to join the team here. 

PostionPlayerNotes
RHPAkira NeoJoin from 13th of Oct
LHPYuki Hashimoto 
LHPTaisei Ishimori 
RHPHiroto Mori 
RHPReia Nakachi 
RHPHiroshi Suzuki 
LHPYoshiki Sunada 
RHPTatsuya Shimizu 
LHPShota Fukushima 
LHPRen KondoWill join half-way
RHPTsubasa Kato 
LHPKenshin KakigoshiJoin from 13th of Oct
RHPYuta Matsukihira 
RHPTento NonakaWill join half-way
CTaisei Miya 
CRyunosuke Yamaasa 
CKota Ishibashi 
IFKaito Muramatsu 
IFTakaya Ishikawa 
IFRyuku 
IFMao Hoshino 
IFHiroki Fukunaga 
IFSeishu Higuchi 
OFHironori Miyoshi 
OFKenta Bright

The thing that sticks out for me here is, who's playing in the outfield? Miyoshi and bright can probably cover all three spots between them, but who's going to play left-field if Bright is in centre and Miyoshi is in right. Or who is going to play right if Miyoshi is in centre and Bright is in left? I really have no idea. None of the players being brought along have ever played in the outfield apart from those two. So, that's certainly going to be interesting to see how that plays out. Perhaps they think Hoshino or perhaps even Ishibashi could play in the outfield? We'll see. The rest of the team is about what you'd expect but interesting to see Ishikawa and Ryuku here as well given they've just played a full-season of first team ball. 

Notes 

  • Kosuke Ukai and Kotaro Ueda are heading to the Dominican Winter League to develop their games. They're the first since 2015 to make the trip when it was Katsuki Matayoshi who travelled to the Caribbean League. Ukai also becomes the first position players since Atsushi Fujii and two others who went in 2008. 
  • Former all-star, golden glove, short-stop, Hirokazu Ibata has taken on the Samurai Japan job. Kudos to the former Dragon who had recently been coaching the Japanese U-12 side. He looks to be managing the U-15 side concurrently with the senior team. 

Wednesday, September 6, 2023

Seiya Hosokawa's Remarkable Year

While the season still isn't over yet, Seiya Hosokowa has already broken into a group of auspicious Dragons hitters with his power hitting prowess. 

Since arriving in Nagoya from Yokohama through the active player draft, Hosokawa has been a revelation in the heart of the Dragons line-up. For all the ills of the team, Hosokawa along with Yuki Okabayashi and Takaya Ishikawa have been lights through a very dark season. Hosokawa in particular has blossomed with the Dragons from someone who forever had potential with the Baystars, to someone who has the ability to be one of the Central League's premier hitters. 

I won't go into a lot of detail in this post, but I did want to bring attention to a few records that Hosokawa has achieved. I contextualise this with the caveat that these are all major achievements for a Dragons hitter in the uniform ball era that started in 2012. This, perhaps serendipitously, is the start of the period of power-hitting ills for the Dragons. 

1. Hosokawa is the first Dragon to hit 20+ homeruns in a season since Dayan Viciedo in 2018. 

Yes, it has been 5 years since we last saw a Dragons hitter pop more than 20 homers. It's a little sad when you think about it. Even our iconic first baseman has had trouble hitting more than 15 homers a year but has achieved the 20 homer mark in 2 of his 7 seasons. This year has been pretty bad by Viciedo's standards, and Hosokawa has truly taken over the mantle. The only other hitters to reach the mark in the last 10 years have been Alex Guerrero (35HR, 2017) and Matt Clark (25HR, 2013). 

2. Hosokawa is the first Japanese Dragons' slugger to hit 20+ homers since 2010. 

This is perhaps the biggest issue the Dragons have had in the past 13 years. There has been no Japanese hitter that has shown elite power. Shuhei Takahashi was supposedly meant to be and Ryosuke Hirata similarly seemed to have the potential, but neither of them reached these heights with the former in particular perhaps never really having that level of power to draw on. Nobumasa Fukuda was the closest in recent memory as he had a glorious run down the stretch in 2018 and ended the season with 18 homers. Hosokawa has however become the first Japanese Dragon since current batting coaches, Kazuhiro Wada (37HR, 2010) and Masahiko Morino (21HR, 2010) to send 20 balls over the fence.

3. Hosokawa is only the 4th Dragons hitter in the uniform ball period to log 20+ homers

Right? In 2012 the uniform ball was introduced. Before then, each team supplied their own ball for home games. This seems to have had a disastrous impact on the Dragons. However Hosokawa has stemmed the tide of this trend. As mentioned previously, only Dayan Viciedo, Alex Guerrero and Matt Clark have popped 20 homers in a Dragons shirt in the uniform ball era. Hosokawa becomes the first Japanese-born player to do so. Hopefully more can follow in his footsteps. 

4. Hosokawa is only the second Dragons hitter in the uniform ball era to hit 10+ homers at Vantelin dome

Here's where it really gets crazy. Vantelin Dome (formerly Nagoya Dome) has been one of the most pitcher friendly parks in NPB history. But, for a while, this didn't seem to stop hitters like Tyrone Woods, Kosuke Fukudome or Kazuhiro Wada from going ham on the ball. The uniform ball era seems to have heavily affected homerun numbers in the dome, but somehow Hosokawa has managed to hit 11 homers (so far!) in the cavernous home ground of the Dragons. This puts him second on the list since 2012. The first? You guessed it, Da...Alex Guerrero. Yep. Mr "El Solo Jonrón" whacked 17 of his 35 homers in Nagoya. That actually puts him equal third on the all-time list for single-season homers at the dome. Hosokawa, is safely number two on this list since 2012. Where does he however figure on the all-time list? Let's have a quick look:

RankPlayerHomerunsYear
1Tyrone Woods212006
2Kosuke Fukudome182003
3Tyrone Woods172005
-Alex Guerrero172017
4Tyrone Woods162008
-Tony Blanco162009
5Kazuhiro Wada142010
-Tony Blanco142010
6Tyrone Woods132007
-Leo Gomez131999
7Takeshi Yamasaki121998
8Kazuhiro Wada112009
-Kosuke Fukudome112004
-Seiya Hosokawa112023
9Leo Gomez101998
-Motonobu Tanishige102002
-Kosuke Fukudome102002

If the season finished today, Hosokawa would be equal 8th in single-season homeruns at the Vantelin Dome. Quite an achievement for someone who is essentially a rookie. Feel free to have a look over this list, but it's Fukudome and Woods' power that I am in awe of when I look at this. The most random of names to appears here is probably Tanishige, who had a couple of good years offensively but was by no means ever considered a power hitter. 

There is still time left for Hosokawa to leave a further imprint on some important Dragons records. He has had a prodigious first season in Chunichi blue, and has been bright light in what has otherwise been a very sullen year. Looking forward to the future however, he, Ishikawa and Okabayashi in particular make for a very interesting core to build around in the middle of the line-up. If a successful international signing can be made in the off-season to support them, the top-half at least of the Dragons line-up could be very potent next year. 

Thursday, January 5, 2023

Active Player Draft 2022: Shotaro Kasahara OUT, Seiya Hosokawa IN

Happy New Year. To commemorate the beginning of 2023, I'd like to recap on some old news. 

The first NPB 'Active Player Draft' took place on the 9th of December this year. Modeled on the MLB Rule 5 draft, this draft was established to ensure middling players could move to greener pastures to try to revive their stalled careers or get better opportunities elsewhere. It has been a mission of the NPB's Player Association of the past few years and this dumbed down version is the start of freer player movement between clubs. The clubs themselves still hold the power over players and can nominate three players they feel would benefit from this system. The Rule 5 draft however is more systematic in that roster allowances and organizational years are taken into account to determine who is eligible. Somewhat unsurprisingly the first step toward this kind of player movement still has clubs with reigns in hand. 

Some commentators have mentioned that this system is a glorified trade table but at least one good thing to come of this is teams have to move at least one player. In the future it is hoped that there will be more rounds to the Active Player Draft but it seems this year was conservative with clubs only opting for one round. 

Amongst all this, the Dragons moved on 2018 opening day starter, Shotaro Kasahara. The lefty has had heart problems that knocked about his development. An arrhythmia knocked him out for roughly a year after he had broken into the top team and he hasn't quite been the same since. A 4+ ERA on the farm last year is a far cry from the results he was putting with the first team in his second year as a professional. Some concern lies over the velocity difference between his change-up and fastball making some think he's just a left-handed Shunta Wakamatsu who similarly got dominated as he lacked a higher velocity fastball to mix with his change-up. Kasahara can throw a cutter as well to decent effect and, I think, has more to him than Wakamatsu but his development has somewhat stagnated. Talk around the Dragons team before he packed his bags was that he might be a bullpen option in 2023. This conversation is no longer necessary as the Dragons have turned Kasahara into outfielder Seiya Hosokawa. If we take into account this drafting and the previous trade with the Baystars, we've traded two lefty pitchers and an outfielder for an infielder. Baystars get Kyoda and Kasahara, we get Hosokawa and Sunada. 

Who is Seiya Hosokawa? Hosokawa has been a fan favourite of Baystars fan since he was drafted. A native of the Kanagawa area, Hosokawa hit 62 homers in high school before being drafted in the 4th round with the Baystars in 2016. Hopes have been high for the slugger with some expectation that he might have been able to turn it on and replace Yoshitomo Tsutsugoh when he made his move to the Majors, but it hasn't quite happened. Hosokawa has been good in spurts but overall not good enough to solidify a place the line-up for more than a few games at a time. In the end, Hosokawa is still only 24 years old, 9 months older than Kosuke Ukai who profiles perhaps similarly. Kasahara on the other hand at 27 is at a stage where he really should be a starter by now and have developed a role. On that balance alone, it might be safe to say the Dragons have traded for more potential upside. Hosokawa has hit 10+ homeruns for the Baystars every season bar one with a high of 16 in 2021. He won the homerun champion title in 2020 with 13 homers in 212 plate appearances. Hosokawa only hit 11 this year, but this is still significantly better than any Dragons hitter has done in recent years. It is worth noting however that the Eastern League is much more home-run friendly than the Western League where the Dragons' farm team plays. Either way, if Hosokawa can go some way to replicating this form in the Western League, he'll be sure to see plenty of chances with the top-team.

In terms of weaknesses, it's hard to really point at any one thing. His OPS gradually improved every year until 2022 where it went down 100 points from .968 to .834. A down year really with little explanation apart from an uptick in strikeouts. Overall, Hosokawa's consistency on the farm is relatively encouraging. That shift from the farm to the top-team seems to be the most difficult but with players like Keita Sano ahead of him in left-field, he has only been able to secure scattered appearances in right-field challenging the likes of Taishi Kusumoto and Kazuki Kamizato. Hosokawa did not do very well in his first-team appearances this year with only 20 PA and a single hit to his name. With Taiki Sekine also returning to favour under Daisuke Miura, it seems as though there's not much room to experiment with Hosokawa.

To see how this affects the roster, well, it adds a bat a removes a pitcher at the most basic level. But if we consider it in the context of the trade with Sunada and Kyoda as well, we've swapped a good defensive short-stop for a high potential, younger, power-bat while the pitcher trade is more or less just shuffling the deck with like for like lefties. 

Hosokawa adds more depth to the power-hitting stocks for the Dragons who honestly have lacked much in that department over the years. To restate, I think his best comp is likely going to be Kosuke Ukai with the two likely competing for those corner outfield jobs. Alongside Ukai and Hosokawa are the foreign bats of Aquino and Almonte while the other options in outfield like Kenta Bright and Hironori Miyoshi could yet still surprise with some hidden power of their own. I don't think adding Hosokawa moves the needle a whole lot for the Dragons, but considering Kasahara's value was rather low within the organisation and Hosokawa is young with upside, it's an agreeable move.  Hosokawa offers more upside than Kasahara currently presents but one could argue that point if we consider Kyoda as the other move in this transaction.

What this does open up potentially is the ability to drop or rest Aquino, and still maintain some potential power in the line-up. Similarly, Hosokawa could enter the competition for the left-field as well. Overall, I see this addition as one that increases competition for the outfield spots which I only see as a good thing. It also diversifies the options available to the team to be able to chop and change based on roster demands. There has also been some suggestion that Hosokawa could play first-base as well which could add more depth to an area that really doesn't have much to it.

In other more whelming news, on the 27th of December the Dragons announced they would be welcoming back catcher, Takuma Kato from the Chiba Lotte Marines after completing what is essentially a free agent signing. A trade was made with the Marines for no compensation. In some odd miscalculation, the Dragons found themselves short at catcher despite releasing long tenured Iori Katsura just after the draft. The team must have thought they would have been able to trade for someone better but in the end left the active player with only Hosokawa to show and no further trade deals made. Perhaps there was an impression another club was willing to give up a certain catcher but perhaps the right parameters weren't met or they simply changed their mind. Either way its probably the safest of back-up options as Kato is only one-year removed from working with the Dragons pitchers and will be familiar with many of them making the transition relatively simple. I don't think there's any expectation Kato will challenge for the first-team mask, but he will plug a hole in what looks more or less like a complete roster now.

While we're here, some comments made by Tatsunami to the media regarding recruiting:

  • In their pursuit for a foreign slugger, the Dragons apparently had Nomar Mazara as their top pick (someone I mentioned in one of my podcasts) while Luis Brinson, most recently of the San Francisco Giants, was their second choice. Mazara was more interested in returning to the MLB, while Brinson was also receiving interest from the Yomiuri Giants. Mazara certainly would have been my first choice as well, and it is a pity the Dragons missed out on him this time.
  • The second pick at the 2022 draft, Kaito Muramatsu, was apparently a last minute choice as the team were set on going after Tenri University's short-stop Atsuki Tomosugi. It was Tatsunami's last-minute close-up look at Muramatsu that tipped the scales with the Dragon's manager impressed with the hitting prowess of the Meiji University captain. Tomosugi ended up going to the Chiba Lotte Marines immediately after Muramatsu was selected by the Dragons.